Week 4 betting by the numbers: Darnold seeing MVP interest

• Doug Greenberg

• David Purdum

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  David Purdum

  ESPN Staff Writer

  • Joined ESPN in 2014
  • Journalist covering gambling industry since 2008

Sep 30, 2024, 10:00 AM ET

To say that nobody saw the Minnesota Vikings becoming one of the NFL’s best teams through four weeks would be an understatement, as they had the seventh-longest odds to win the Super Bowl (100-1) at ESPN BET. Entering the season, only 1.1% of Super Bowl bets placed with BetMGM were on the Vikings.

One month later, after Sunday’s win over the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field, the Vikings are the last remaining undefeated NFL team against the spread — which is not impressive in itself given that the Atlanta Falcons posted a 4-0 ATS record to start the season as recently as 2022. But what is impressive is the fact that Minnesota is the first team in the Super Bowl Era to start 4-0 outright despite not being more than a one-point favorite in any of their first four games. Minnesota began the season as one-point favorites against the New York Giants, and then getting underdog status against the San Francisco 49ers, Houston Texans and, in Week 4, the Packers.

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While the sportsbooks weren’t buying into the Vikes’ hot start this week, bettors were. At several sportsbooks, Minnesota received the majority of bets and handle to cover +3 against Green Bay, as well as a large proportion of moneyline bets (+125 at ESPN BET). BetMGM says that Vikings +3 was their most-bet spread (by handle) and Vikings +130 was their most-bet underdog to win (by tickets).

FanDuel made some money back by taking heavy action on Aaron Jones to score a touchdown in his return to Lambeau, saying that the former Packers running back attracted nearly four times as many wagers to get into the end zone as any other player Sunday afternoon. Jones racked up 93 yards on the ground but did not score.

And while Jones has been important to Minnesota’s success, no player has done more for the Vikings than QB Sam Darnold, who continues to generate MVP buzz with his resurgent play. At ESPN BET, he wasn’t on the board before the season. He debuted at 100-1, and has since moved all the way down to +1400 to win the award, just behind leaders Josh Allen (+200), Patrick Mahomes (+350) and C.J. Stroud (+900).

But for all the disrespect the Vikings and Darnold saw early in the season, fans are starting to believe. Since Sunday morning, DraftKings reports that Darnold has 50% of the bets and 47% of the handle to win MVP.

At least one bettor believed the quarterback could turn his career around in Minneapolis even before his resurgence: In July, one FanDuel customer placed a $250 wager at 300-1 odds on Darnold to win MVP for potential winnings of $75,000.

Underdogs bark again, bettors catching on

NFL underdogs, especially the bigger ones, dominated the first month of the season.

• Underdogs of seven points or more are 5-2 outright and are 6-1 against the spread.

• Teams getting at least five points are 11-11 straight up and 18-4 against the spread.

• Overall, underdogs are 36-26 ATS with 25 outright upsets (before Monday’s games).

The underdogs’ success took a toll on the betting public in the first three weeks, but there was a little bit of a shift in the approach of bettors in Week 4. Underdogs went 9-4 against the spread on Sunday, with the Vikings, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Denver Broncos, Washington Commanders, Indianapolis Colts and Las Vegas Raiders all pulling outright upsets. Normally, that’s a recipe for disaster for the betting public, which typically gravitates toward favorites. But reports from sportsbooks ahead of Sunday night’s game told a different story.

Craig Mucklow, vice president of trading for Caesars Sportsbook, described the day as a “small win” for the house ahead of the prime-time game between the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens.

The Cincinnati Bengals‘ 34-24 win over the Carolina Panthers was the best game for the betting public, bookmakers said. At ESPN BET, nearly 85% of money wagered was on Cincinnati to cover the 5.5-point spread, making it the most lopsided game of the early slate. On Sunday morning, more money had been bet on the Bengals to cover the spread and win the game outright than any other team at DraftKings.

“This week in the NFL was disappointing,” John Murray, executive director for the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, said. “We had a really nice September, but closed with a whimper.”

Results from Week 4 and for the season, per ESPN Research

Painful props

The increasingly popular player props did not get off to a good start to the week for the betting public and that trend continued into Sunday’s early games.

On Thursday, the over on receiving yards for Giants running back Devin Singletary was the most-popular player prop at multiple sportsbooks. Singletary’s over/under on receiving yards was set around 14.5. FanDuel reported that 99% of bets and 97% of money wagered on Singletary’s receiving yards was on the over. Singletary finished with just one catch for 14 yards against the Dallas Cowboys.

Entering the early Sunday kickoffs, the two most-popular players with bettors at multiple sportsbooks to score touchdowns were the Breece Hall of the New York Jets and Saquon Barkley of the Philadelphia Eagles. Hall finished with 18 total yards and no touchdowns in the Jets’ 10-9 loss to the Broncos. Barkley had 116 total yards with no touchdowns in the Eagles’ 33-16 loss to the Buccaneers.

Georgia-Alabama: $80,000 to win $1,600 and other wildness

Jalen Milroe jumped from +700 to +225 at ESPN BET after an incredible performance in an upset Week 5 victory over Georgia. Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images

On a Saturday full of giant betting decisions for the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, the most unexpected one came in the first half of the biggest game of the college football season so far.

For a brief moment, the managers in charge of the remote controls for the SuperBook’s giant videoboards decided to take the Georgia-Alabama game off the main screen with the sound, opting instead for Illinois-Penn State.

“[They] quickly realized the error in the ways,” joked John Murray, executive director of the SuperBook. “What a game.”

By now, everyone reading likely knows what happened Saturday in Tuscaloosa, where the Alabama Crimson Tide were home underdogs for the first time in 17 years. It was a wild affair that saw the Georgia Bulldogs overcome a 28-0 deficit to take the lead in the final three minutes, only to have Alabama score the winning touchdown just 13 seconds later. In those 13 seconds, the Crimson Tide’s odds to win the game went from +135 to -550 at ESPN BET.

Alabama, which led 30-7 at halftime and 33-15 early in the fourth quarter, was a commanding -6,000 favorite to win the game at one point at Caesars Sportsbook, with Georgia a 22-1 underdog to win the game. The largest in-game bet Caesars reported taking was a real sweat: risking $80,000 on Alabama to win the game at -5,000 odds for a chance to win $1,600.

“We feel for the customer’s heart rate,” Mucklow told ESPN. “It’s easily the biggest college game for in-play handle this year. As with all huge comebacks and crazy late swings, it was a tremendous result for many in-play customers.”

The late odds swings began even before the game. Just 90 minutes before kickoff, the point spread moved from Georgia -1 to -2.5 at multiple sportsbooks. Murray of the SuperBook said late action on the Bulldogs from “sharp accounts” caused the line movement.

The game also vaulted Crimson Tide QB Jalen Milroe into the role of Heisman favorite and Alabama ahead of Georgia in the national championship odds. Milroe, who opened the season at +1400, started Saturday at +700 and moved to favorite status at +225 by Sunday morning, per ESPN BET odds. Since Saturday morning, Milroe has attracted 17% of bets and 22% of handle at the sportsbook, both second best behind Colorado’s Travis Hunter, who now ranks third on the odds board at +700.

ESPN BET odds to win the National Championship, as of Sept. 29

Odds and Ends

65: The percentage of bets that were parlays at FanDuel this year, according to the company’s earnings report released last week.

63: The number of yards of New England Patriots‘ kicker Joey Slye‘s field goal just before halftime in their game against the 49ers. It was a career-long for Slye and secured the first-half over at 20.5.

186.5: The over/under on Broncos’ quarterback Bo Nix‘s passing yards against the Jets at DraftKings. Nix finished with 60 yards passing. Nix’s 60 yards passing is the lowest total by a quarterback with at least 20 attempts in a win since Eli Manning in 2007, according to ESPN Research.

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