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Andre Snellings, ESPNDec 17, 2024, 11:00 AM ET
The NBA Cup final has arrived, and it has followed chalk exactly. The top seed in the West, Oklahoma City, will take on the top seed in the East, Milwaukee. This is fitting, because these are also two of the hottest teams in the NBA.
The Thunder has the best record in the Western Conference, and their +12.1 point scoring margin is the top mark in the NBA. Meanwhile, the Bucks got off to a slow start this season, but have bounced back in a big way as winners of 10 of their last 12.
Here are the betting angles of interest in tonight’s big matchup.
Note: This stats from the NBA Cup final don’t count in ESPN Fantasy leagues.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 32.5 points (-105)
Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged more than 30 PPG for the third straight season, upping his scoring to 32.8 PPG during the past month (12 games). He has been similarly potent during the NBA Cup, putting up 32.2 PPG in those six games with a 39-point effort against Dallas. Gilgeous-Alexander will need to step up against a team as hot as the Bucks, and Milwaukee has struggled to defend opposing point guards, allowing the third-highest scoring average to the position in the NBA.
Bobby Portis over 7.5 rebounds (-120)
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While the Thunder are one of the toughest defenses in the NBA, they tend to play a smaller lineup with one center and several wings. As a result, one area they do cede to their opponents is rebounding. OKC allows the fourth-most rebounds to opposing centers (16.0 RPG). Portis has been particularly active on the boards of late, averaging 10.5 RPG during his past four games with at least nine boards in three of those contests.
Thunder -5.5 over Bucks (-105)
The Bucks are playing excellent basketball right now, but the Thunder have been playing at a high level all season and even have been the hotter team recently. While Milwaukee has a +5.5-point scoring margin during its 12-game stretch, with 10 wins, OKC has also won nine of its past 10 games with a +13.1-point scoring margin. The Bucks are powerful, with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard as a 1-2 punch that can rival any duo, but the Thunder’s combination of stifling defense and excellent long-range shooting from almost every position makes them difficult to overcome.
Projections and Injury Reports
Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. Odds by ESPN BET
Players in italics are available in a majority of ESPN Leagues
Milwaukee Bucks at Oklahoma City Thunder
8:30 p.m. ET on ABC
Line: Bucks +4.5 (-105) | Thunder -4.5 (-115)
Money line: Bucks +170 | Thunder -200
Total: 214.5 (-115 O, -105 U)
BPI Projection: Thunder by 8.4, straight up 75%, 225.7 total points.
Injury Report:
Bucks: Damian Lillard, (GTD – Calf); Giannis Antetokounmpo, (GTD – Knee); Khris Middleton, (GTD – Illness); Liam Robbins, (GTD – Ankle)
Thunder: Chet Holmgren, (OUT – Hip); Nikola Topic, (OUT – Knee); Jaylin Williams, (OUT – Hamstring); Ousmane Dieng, (OUT – Finger)
