-
Rachel DoerrieFeb 7, 2025, 07:30 AM ET
- Rachel Doerrie is a professional data consultant specializing in data communication and modelling. She’s worked in the NHL and consulted for professional teams across North American and Europe. She hosts the Staff & Graph Podcast and discusses sports from a data-driven perspective.
The dog days of the season are upon us and it’s time for the first edition of the 2025 NHL draft rankings. Like last season, the first edition of the rankings are solely based on outputs from the draft model. There are no adjustments made for scouting, inputs from NHL scouts or executives and any other anecdotal information.
There were some changes made to the model from last season, as the model strives to consistently improve. The model weighs scoring statistics from the current season and the past season, league strength, team strength relative to league, tracking statistics (defensive, physical and transition play), age, size and injuries. The model weights changed, with less weight on the players’ size and more weight on their tracking statistics, league strength and scoring statistics. The model factors for injuries, only in the number of games played as a function of the projection volatility. Matthew Schaefer and Roger McQueen have more volatile projections than Michael Misa and Porter Martone because they have missed significant time, leading to a smaller sample size.
Each player is projected in a category, with a confidence factor of how likely they are to reach that category. The most likely outcome becomes the category, which is combined with the confidence factor for a rating. Players are ranked based on their rating, which is the first edition of this year’s rankings.
The forward categories are: elite player, top-line forward, top-six forward, impact forward, middle-six forward, bottom-six forward and NHL player.
The defensemen categories are: top-pair defenseman, top-four defenseman, impact defenseman and NHL defenseman.
The goaltender categories are: starting goaltender, platoon starter, backup goaltender and NHL goaltender.
Impact forwards and defensemen are players who are not consistently expected to play top-six or top-four minutes but are capable of stepping into those roles and performing admirably. Current NHL examples are Evan Rodrigues and Ivan Provorov.
Editor’s Picks
1 Related
There are players projected in higher categories that rank lower because the confidence factor is significantly less than players above them. For example, Cameron Schmidt is projected to be a top-six forward, with less than 50% confidence factor. Malcolm Spence is projected to be an impact forward with a more than 70% confidence factor. When combined, Spence’s rating is higher than Schmidt’s. This type of projection occurs mostly for players with high upside, but one or two of the model inputs fall below NHL range.
The first edition is to serve as a foundation to build the final rankings off, ensuring players are in the appropriate range regardless of industry opinion or scouting bias. The next edition of these rankings will account for scouting and industry opinion and with the wide-open nature of this particular class, there is sure to be some movement.
1. Matthew Schaefer
D, Erie (OHL)
Top-Pair Defenseman
2. James Hagens
F, Boston College (NCAA)
Top-Line Forward
Breaking News from Emily Kaplan
Download the ESPN app and enable Emily Kaplan’s news alerts to receive push notifications for the latest updates first. Opt in by tapping the alerts bell in the top right corner. For more information, click here.
3. Michael Misa
F, Saginaw (OHL)
Top-Line Forward
4. Porter Martone
F, Brampton (OHL)
Top-Six Forward
5. Roger McQueen
F, Brandon (WHL)
Top-Six Forward
6. Viktor Eklund
F, Djurgarden (Allsvenskan)
Top-Six Forward
7. Caleb Desnoyers
F, Moncton (QMJHL)
Top-Six Forward
8. Anton Frondell
F, Djurgarden (AllSvenskan)
Impact Forward
9. Jake O’Brien
F, Brantford (OHL)
Impact Forward
10. Lynden Lakovic
F, Moose Jaw (WHL)
Impact Forward
11. Carter Bear
F, Everett (WHL)
Impact Forward
12. Malcolm Spence
F, Erie (OHL)
Impact Forward
13. Jackson Smith
D, Tri-City (WHL)
Top-4 Defenseman
14. Cameron Schmidt
F, Vancouver (WHL)
Top-Six Forward
15. Justin Carbonneau
F, Blainville-Boisbriand (QMJHL)
Middle-Six Forward
16. Benjamin Kindel
F, Calgary (WHL)
Middle-Six Forward
17. Brady Martin
F, Soo (OHL)
Middle-Six Forward
18. Cameron Reid
D, Kitchener (OHL)
Top-4 Defenseman
19. Radim Mrtka
D, Seattle (WHL)
Top-4 Defenseman
Top stories of the week from
Get exclusive access to thousands of premium articles a year from top writers.
• NBA trade deadline today! Get the grades »
• Bubble Watch: Cincinnati, Nevada move up »
• Top 75 recruiting classes: Michigan rises »
More ESPN+ content »
20. Braeden Cootes
F, Seattle (WHL)
Middle-Six Forward
21. Logan Hensler
D, Wisconsin (NCAA)
Top-4 Defenseman
22. Ivan Ryabkin
F, Muskegon (USHL)
Impact Forward
23. Cullen Potter
F, Arizona State (NCAA)
Middle-Six Forward
24. Cole Reschny
F, Victoria (WHL)
Impact Forward
25. Jack Murtagh
F, USA U18 (NTDP)
Middle-Six Forward
26. Kashawn Aitcheson
D, Barrie (OHL)
Top-4 Defenseman
27. Joshua Ravensbergen
G, Prince George (WHL)
Starting Goaltender
28. Blake Fiddler
D, Edmonton (WHL)
NHL Defenseman
29. William Moore
F, USA U18 (NTDP)
Impact Forward
30. Bill Zonnon
F, Rouyn-Noranda (QMJHL)
Middle-Six Forward
31. Sascha Boumedienne
D, Boston University (NCAA)
NHL Defenseman
32. Henry Brzustewicz
D, London (OHL)
Top-4 Defenseman
