QB confidential: GOAT? Most overrated? Best rookie? 103 players weigh

• NFL Nation, ESPNAug 27, 2024, 07:04 AM ET

The Kansas City Chiefs can make history this season with the NFL’s first three-peat, an achievement that would thrust quarterback Patrick Mahomes into the conversation of the greatest of all time.

ESPN asked over 100 NFL players to rank quarterbacks according to a variety of criteria, including whether Mahomes, chasing his fourth Super Bowl title, is ready to supplant Tom Brady as the GOAT. Brady won seven championships, but he didn’t win his fourth until his 15th season. Mahomes is entering his eighth.

“It’s Brady, but if Mahomes three-peats, that’s a different story,” one AFC South player said.

The survey, which granted anonymity so the players could respond candidly, asked them to rank quarterbacks in the following categories:

• Top three current quarterbacks

• Rookie QB who will have most successful career

• Most overrated quarterback

• Most underrated quarterback

• Biggest trash-talking QB

A total of 103 players from 25 teams were interviewed for this project, and they were allowed to vote for their own quarterback. Here are the results.

Who is the GOAT, and if it’s not Mahomes, what does he have to do to get there?

If the question were about talent level, Mahomes would win, according to several responses. Even when considering overall greatness, the Chiefs star got his due.

“No disrespect to Tom … but I’m taking Pat,” said one NFC South player. “Pat can do everything Tom can do, and he’s mobile.”

The vast majority, however, chose Brady with the challenge that Mahomes has to match or beat his number of rings.

“Mahomes is on his way, but he’s not there yet,” another NFC South player said. “You can’t disrespect Tom Brady. He has seven rings.

“That’s a long way to go.”

Another AFC South player who chose Brady said: “Mahomes is on track to be the best ever. He’s just got some of those skills that you can’t teach.”‘

Here were the GOAT votes for Brady and Mahomes:

1. Brady: (85)

2. Mahomes: (7)

Several other players received votes.

Rank the top three current quarterbacks

The choice for No. 1 wasn’t unanimous, but most of the players who didn’t select Mahomes with their top choice voted him No. 2. Mahomes received 87 first-place votes and 12 for second place. One player named three players but didn’t rank them.

The top three spots were weighted, with No. 1 being worth 3 points, No. 2 being worth 2 and No. 3 being worth 1.

Baltimore Ravens star Lamar Jackson, who is the reigning MVP, got the second-highest point total. Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow finished third.

Here are the QBs ranked as the top three and their point totals:

1. Mahomes: (291)

2. Jackson: (124)

3. Burrow: (51)

Other top vote-getters: Buffalo Bills‘ Josh Allen (39) and New York Jets‘ Aaron Rodgers (32)

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Which rookie QB will have the most successful career?

Only one team features two wide receivers who topped 1,000 receiving yards last season. That team drafted a WR who led the nation in receiving last year with 1,640 yards.

The abundance of receiving talent is one reason Caleb Williams is expected to justify the Chicago Bears using the No. 1 pick on him in April.

“His ceiling is probably the highest, but you’ve just got to get in the right situation,” an NFC West player said.

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The Bears have not been a quarterback’s “right situation” for generations. In fact, the Bears haven’t drafted and developed a true franchise QB since Sid Luckman in 1939. Williams’ predecessor, Justin Fields, was drafted with the 11th pick in 2021 and traded to the Pittsburgh Steelers three years later.

“It’s Caleb [with the most promising future], if the Bears figure out what they have,” an AFC West player said.

The Washington Commanders took Jayden Daniels with the second pick, and he has impressed during training camp to the point where he has been named the Week 1 starter.

“Daniels is in a good situation,” an NFC South player said. “It’s a new ownership group, new coaching staff and a lot of that is going to be built around him and what he can do.”

Daniels will be the starter, but expectations for his success won’t be as high as they are for Williams.

“Everybody is going to say Caleb, but bro, you realize you’ve got all that pressure,” an NFC South player said. “There’s a difference when you’ve got that pressure. And he put that pressure on himself.

“So, if he doesn’t come out here like Patrick Mahomes level, then he’s a bust in everybody’s eyes.”

The survey was conducted before the Minnesota Vikings‘ J.J. McCarthy suffered a season-ending knee injury, but the responses speak to what several players believe will be a successful career.

Here were the top vote-getters for the rookie QB who will have the most successful career:

1. Williams (34)

2. Daniels (30)

3. McCarthy (10)

Other top vote-getters: Atlanta Falcons‘ Michael Penix Jr. (8) and Denver Broncos‘ Bo Nix (8)

Most overrated quarterback

The three top vote-getters in this category have made five Pro Bowls, one Super Bowl and two conference championship games.

That means a successful QB can also be considered overrated.

When voting for Allen, one NFC West player said: “Too many turnovers.”

Since the start of the 2008 season, Allen’s 102 turnovers lead the NFL. The Detroit Lions‘ Jared Goff is second with 96, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers‘ Baker Mayfield is third with 91, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

Allen has made two Pro Bowls and helped guide the Bills to five postseason bids, including an AFC Championship Game, in his six years.

Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts has gone even further, helping lead the Eagles to the Super Bowl two years ago. Yet he also is viewed by some as not living up to the hype.

“How hard is it to throw jump balls to A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith?” asked an NFC East player. “And their tight end [Dallas Goedert] is really good.”

The Miami Dolphins are hoping it was a mistake that Tua Tagovailoa was voted into this category after the team signed him to the richest contract in franchise history — four years, $212.4 million.

Here were the top vote-getters for the most overrated quarterback:

1. Allen (11)

T2. Hurts (10)

T2. Tagovailoa (10)

Other top vote-getters: Los Angeles Chargers‘ Justin Herbert (9), Jacksonville Jaguars‘ Trevor Lawrence (8), Cleveland Browns‘ Deshaun Watson (7), Arizona Cardinals‘ Kyler Murray (6) and San Francisco 49ers‘ Brock Purdy (6)

Despite unexpected success at the start of his career, 49ers QB Brock Purdy continues to be underrated, according to his peers. Tony Ding/Icon Sportswire

Most underrated quarterback

The first NFL label attached to Purdy was “Mr. Irrelevant,” for being the last pick of the 2022 draft. The next label was “game manager,” for not being as flashy as some of his peers.

Now, Purdy can add at least a share of another label: “Most underrated quarterback in the NFL.” He and the Los Angeles Rams‘ Matthew Stafford tied for most votes.

Last year, Purdy led the 49ers to a Super Bowl and notched the best QBR in just his second season.

The 36-year-old Stafford passed for 3,965 yards, 24 touchdowns and 11 interceptions and made his second Pro Bowl while helping the Rams return to the playoffs in 2023. He also finished sixth in QBR at 63.5.

Stafford is entering his 16th season — after spending his first 12 with the Detroit Lions.

“When you’re at the level he’s been at for so long, people take it for granted a little bit,” an NFC West player said of Stafford. “And being in Detroit, maybe the market for the attention wasn’t really there.

“Now that he’s in L.A. for a few years, hopefully that market catches up with the talent that he has.”

Here were the top vote-getters for the most underrated quarterback:

T1. Purdy (14)

T1. Stafford (14)

T3. Atlanta Falcons‘ Kirk Cousins (7)

T3. Lions’ Jared Goff (7)

T3. Green Bay Packers‘ Jordan Love (7)

T3. Carolina Panthers’ Bryce Young (7)

Other top vote-getters: Herbert (6), Dallas Cowboys‘ Dak Prescott (4), Jackson (4), Hurts (4) and Tagovailoa (4)

Biggest trash-talking quarterback

To some of his peers, Allen is one of the top three quarterbacks in the league. To others, he is overrated because of how many turnovers he commits. And to a plurality voting in this category, he’s the biggest trash-talking QB in the league.

“He’s going to run you over and talk trash after he runs you over,” one NFC East player said.

Allen beat Mayfield and Rodgers as the biggest trash talkers.

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“[Rodgers] knows what you’re going to do before you do it, so he has those mind games,” an NFC West player said. “He gets out there and he’ll just stare at you, and you don’t know what to do. Like, ‘Why are you staring at me?’ type of thing.

“So, more of an intellectual trash talk.”

Rodgers doesn’t limit the taunting to nonverbal means, as Bears fans will attest. In 2021, while he was a member of the Green Bay Packers, Rodgers yelled “I still own you” at the Soldier Field crowd after scoring a touchdown. And he was known to make his “discount double check” taunt in which he highlighted an imaginary championship belt around his waist.

Here were the top vote-getters for the biggest trash-talking QB:

1. Allen (26)

2. Mayfield (17)

3. Rodgers (15)

Other top vote-getters: Mahomes (11), Burrow (4) and Houston Texans‘ C.J. Stroud (4)

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