Power play trends: These teams are generating the most power

Sean Allen, Special to ESPN.comOct 29, 2024, 01:00 PM ET

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The goal on the power play is, of course, goals, and while PP tallies are a great driver of fantasy production for NHL players, goals earned may not be the best measure for future success.

Though it isn’t breaking any models, taking a look at previous season power-play units and their on-ice results does show a moderate correlation between shot attempts and goals on the advantage.

Thirty-eight groups of forwards played at least 50 total minutes of power-play time together last season and 30 five-player units played at least 50 total minutes together. I’m using both sets of data because they give slightly different looks and address the reality that some teams have defenders that rotate in the quarterback role.

When we consider just the 38 forward groups and drill down to their shot attempts metrics on a per-minute basis, there is a moderate correlation that is statistically significant between the shot attempts and goals.

Methodology

Before we go further, a couple of details: I’m using rate stats calculated at per two minutes. It makes sense, as that is the length of a minor penalty, and it makes them readable. So, for example, the league-leading forward group from the Florida Panthers last season (Carter Verhaeghe, Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart and Matthew Tkachuk) generated 5.16 shot attempts per two minutes (SAP2) on the power play.

Also, if you are really into this and you find a different calculation than you expect, note that I do something a little different than most other stat sources: I include goals and teammate-blocked shots in shot attempts. Why? This is a fantasy hockey stat universe here and I build these statistical looks from scratch, so we don’t have to worry about traditional methods like Corsi, which, for whatever reason, don’t include goals as a shot attempt. It should count. It’s an attempted shot that also happens to be a successful one.

One asterisk for you. Fifteen of the games so far this season are missing easily retrievable shift-level data. There is a way to brute force the information, but it takes time. So the following information is missing the shift data for those 15 games. I’ve done my best to manually find any missing info for the ones discussed.

So, as a group of players’ SAP2 increases, we can expect their goals to follow suit. For stat heads, the correlation coefficient between SAP2 and goals per two minutes (GP2) on the power play for the 38 forward groups is 0.41. For the 30 complete units, including D, that played 50 total minutes last season, it’s 0.48.

Statistically speaking, a moderate positive correlation is a coefficient between 0.40 to 0.59, with 1.00 being a perfect positive correlation.

While these coefficients may not reflect an exceptionally strong statistical relationship, they show general repeatability across a sample of different seasons. If we go back two seasons to 2022-23, once again 38 forward groups played 50 total minutes and had a correlation coefficient of 0.35; while 33 complete units managed 0.40. In 2021-22, it was 33 forward groups that hit the time threshold, with a coefficient of 0.48; and it was 26 complete units at 0.50.

This repeatability is particularly intriguing for fantasy hockey, as it suggests that players in high-SAP2 units are likely to maintain solid goal-scoring potential based on historical performance. By analyzing the current performance of power-play units in SAP2, we can make educated guesses about their potential for improvement, even without directly considering goals.

Jump ahead: Goalies | Power Play | Droppables

PP shot attempt leaders 2024-25

With approximately 11% of the NHL season behind us, we are using a cutoff of at least 5:36 of total power-play time this season to be considered here, as that is about 11% of the 50 total minutes I used to test previous seasons.

Matt Duchene, Tyler Seguin, Mason Marchment, Logan Stankoven, F, Dallas Stars (6.59 SAP2, four goals): Ranking first in SAP2 is the Stars second unit? They have only 8:30 of ice time, while the top unit, which has more than twice that. This foursome has three of their goals with Thomas Harley on the ice and one with Miro Heiskanen. The top unit, consisting of Jamie Benn, Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson and Wyatt Johnston, has only 3.69 SAP2 (ranking 34th out of 57 forward groups). As an actionable, given the success of the unit, Marchment and Stankoven both have three power-play points and are available in at least 70% of leagues.

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Mark Stone, Tomas Hertl, Jack Eichel, Pavel Dorofeyev, F, Vegas Golden Knights (6.41 SAP2, five goals): This same group, but with Dorofeyev swapped out for the currently injured Victor Olofsson has four goals. The difference here is the clear SAP2 advantage, as the Dorofeyev-based group ranks second in the league, while the Olofsson group is ranked 13th. Olofsson is week-to-week with a lower-body injury, but, with this success, Dorofeyev may get to stay with the top unit even after the former is back. Either way, both are widely available for fantasy.

Also notable here: Noah Hanifin has been on the ice for three of the five goals with the Dorofeyev group, while Shea Theodore has been out for just two. But Theodore was present for all four goals with Olofsson. There isn’t much controversy here, as Theodore has the top unit locked for now, but if he misses any time, Hanifin should be golden.

Stefan Noesen, Jesper Bratt, Nico Hischier, Jack Hughes, Dougie Hamilton, F/D, New Jersey Devils (SAP2 5.49, six goals): We may as well look at this as a complete unit, as the forward group only has four seconds of ice time without Hamilton. This SAP2 outpaces the same group with Timo Meier swapped for Noesen (4.38 SAP2). But perhaps more importantly, the second unit with Meier (in a very small sample of 2:10, mind you) has 5.54 SAP2, giving the Devils a relentless attack on the advantage regardless of unit. Noesen is standing out as a potential specialist this season that may already be worthy of fantasy rosters.

Brayden Schenn, Pavel Buchnevich, Jordan Kyrou, Jake Neighbours, Justin Faulk, F/D, St. Louis Blues (SAP2 5.29, zero goals): This group has a small sample as well, having only come together with the injury to Robert Thomas, allowing Schenn to step in. But in 6:48 of power-play time, they rank fourth in the league for SAP2. It’s actually an improvement on the unit with Thomas (3.22 SAP2), but we’ll need the Blues to sustain this longer for a better sample. With Thomas out until at least the start of December, there is a lot of runway for Schenn to have medium-term value if the shot attempts start turning into goals.

J.T. Miller, Brock Boeser, Conor Garland, Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes, F/D, Vancouver Canucks (SAP2 4.83, two goals): After running this core four out with Jake DeBrusk to start the season, the Canucks have gone back to Garland. The SAP2 has improved from the 3.18 they posted with DeBrusk. With the goals on the advantage starting to come, fantasy managers with DeBrusk may want to pivot to Garland if they can.

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Troy Terry, Mason McTavish, Cutter Gauthier, Leo Carlsson, F, Anaheim Ducks (SAP2 4.74, two goals): This younger-guns unit has taken over for the Ducks on the advantage and the forward grouping ranks ninth among their peers in SAP2. But there is a little more to this story as the Ducks try out different blue-liners. Olen Zellweger and Pavel Mintyukov were expected to compete for the job, with Cam Fowler ready to step in as a veteran presence. But it’s Jackson LaCombe that has helped the unit finally find success. He was on the ice as the quarterback to these forwards for both of the Ducks power-play goals this season. Their SAP2 with LaCombe is 6.57 across 5:47 of ice time, compared with 4.10 SAP2 with Zellweger in 6:50. LaCombe was a healthy scratch in the Ducks last outing and the Ducks only power-play success has come against the Sharks, so, don’t go racing out to add LaCombe. But keep an eye on the situation in case they do start scoring more on the advantage.

Goalie notes

Anaheim Ducks in eight games (three last week): Lukas Dostal (crease share season/week: 75.0%/66.3%, fantasy points season/week: 28.2/9.4, 59.1% available) and James Reimer (crease share season/week: 25.0%/33.7%, fantasy points season/week: -6.6/-6.4, 98.3% available)

The list of fantasy points leaders for goalies is currently Connor Hellebuyck, Jake Oettinger and Dostal. While John Gibson is coming back sooner than later, there is more than ample reason to get Dostal onto rosters. He’s managed to pick these points up as the Ducks lose the majority of their games.

Colorado Avalanche in 10 games (four last week): Alexandar Georgiev (crease share season/week: 50.7%/24.5%, fantasy points season/week: -20.8/-1.8, 21.9% available) and Justus Annunen (crease share season/week: 49.3%/75.5%, fantasy points season/week: 14.8/13.2, 82.0% available)

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The tide might be turning. If you don’t have Annunen rostered next to Georgiev, do it now. The Avs are going to fuel goaltender success with their offense, especially as key players begin to return. They won’t hesitate to ride Annunen if Georgiev can’t turn things around. It may even be safe to say Annunen has earned at least an even split for the time being.

Los Angeles Kings in nine games (three last week): David Rittich (crease share season/week: 50.1%/66.6%, fantasy points season/week: 3.6/-2.4, 97.4% available) and Darcy Kuemper (crease share season/week: 44.9%/33.4%, fantasy points season/week: 6.4/4.8, 82.2% available) and Pheonix Copley (crease share season/week: 5.1%/DNP, fantasy points season/week: -2.0/DNP, 99.9% available)

Kuemper is back from injury, looked more than solid in his return and should have the lion’s share of the crease again. At more than 80% available, he’s one of the best bets for fantasy teams looking for the potential long-haul solution.

Pittsburgh Penguins in 10 games (three last week): Joel Blomqvist (crease share season/week: 47.8%/32.7%, fantasy points season/week: 9.0/1.2, 96.7% available) and Alex Nedeljkovic (crease share season/week: 30.4%/67.3%, fantasy points season/week: -6.4/-2.6, 98.3% available) and Tristan Jarry (crease share season/week: 21.9%/DNP, fantasy points season/week: -8.0/DNP, 74.0% available)

Even in a 4-0 blowout loss to the Oilers this week, Blomqvist made lemonade from lemons by stopping 46 shots and still earning positive fantasy points in the game. Jump on him this week, as one more poor week from Nedeljkovic and continued absence of Jarry will really clarify who the Pens starting netminder is.

Power-play notes

Viktor Arvidsson, RW, Edmonton Oilers (available in 62.5%): Connor McDavid left Monday’s game early with a lower-body injury. If he is out any extended period of time, Arvidsson will fill in on the top power-play unit. Not that it’s doing much, but still, he did finally have at least one solid game last week with three helpers.

Yegor Sharangovich, C, Calgary Flames (available in 42.2%): Back from an injury to start the season, Sharangovich has taken over the spot Connor Zary kept warm for him on the advantage.

Alex Newhook, C, Montreal Canadiens (available in 98.3%): It’s unclear how long Juraj Slafkovsky will be sidelined for, but Newhook has been the one to take over his role on the advantage in the meantime.

Max Pacioretty, LW, Toronto Maple Leafs (available in 95.9%): The Leafs changed up their power play against the Winnipeg Jets on Monday. They didn’t get — or need — any power-play scoring in the win, but, referencing the introduction above, the new top unit posted 6.41 shot attempts per two minutes (SAP2) on the advantage. It features Pacioretty and Matthew Knies in place of John Tavares and William Nylander, alongside the usual suspects of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and Morgan Rielly. If they stick with it, Pacioretty could benefit.

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Dylan Cozens, C, Buffalo Sabres (rostered in 51.3%): There could certainly be an argument made that you can find someone more useful for the roster spot currently occupied by Cozens. His fantasy success comes when the Sabres are playing well overall. That is not the case at the moment, so their second-line center, even though he gets power-play time, doesn’t make the cut.

Brent Burns, D, Carolina Hurricanes (rostered in 73.4%): It may be time. Without the padded stats from the power play, his 1.4 fantasy points per game (FPPG) isn’t enough. His 21:21 in average ice time isn’t going up and unless something happens to Shayne Gostisbehere, there isn’t much here for fantasy.

Gustav Forsling, D, Florida Panthers (rostered in 71.2%): His Stanley Cup breakout notwithstanding, Forsling isn’t doing enough to warrant a roster spot, with 1.5 FPPG so far this season. He doesn’t come close to power-play minutes and, with a relatively low ceiling, he’s replaceable even if someone else does pick him up.

Filip Hronek, D, Vancouver Canucks (rostered in 59.8%): Like Forsling, a stalwart, physical-first, modestly offensive blue-liner like Hronek can be found on the free-agent pile anytime. Go for someone with more upside until Hronek starts streaking.

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