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Greg Wyshynski, ESPNOct 1, 2024, 07:00 AM ET
- Greg Wyshynski is ESPN’s senior NHL writer.
Lucas Raymond had that breakout player aura last season.
The Detroit Red Wings winger had a strong rookie season in 2021-22, followed by a dip in production. He entered last season primed to break out, thanks in part to improved linemates, and break out he did: 31 goals and 72 points that resulted in an eight-year contract extension worth $64.6 million he signed in the offseason.
There are plenty of players this season who have a similar aura. Some are familiar names placed in advantageous situations; some are rookie sensations; and some could be the next Lucas Raymond, who go from young standouts to NHL stars.
Here are 36 players who could be breakouts in 2024-25, organized into tiers.
Jump to a tier:
New scenery
New linemates
Young star to major star
The wait is over
Rookie breakouts
Tier 1: New scenery
These players switched teams and could see their stock rise with new scenery.
Both of these players have seen their stock climb rather high during their lengthy NHL careers. But neither of them has had this kind of opportunity to pile on the points playing alongside one of the best offensive players on the planet: Oilers center Leon Draisaitl. With Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman cemented on Connor McDavid‘s line, both of these wingers could slide onto Leon’s wings.
If Arvidsson can stay healthy, topping his career high in points (61) is within reason if he sees time with Draisaitl. Skinner had an 82-point season in 2022-23 before dipping back to 46 last season in Buffalo. Playing alongside Draisaitl will get that roller coaster climbing again.
The Blackhawks also imported a pair of veteran free agent wingers to potentially sandwich around Calder Trophy winner Connor Bedard on their top line. They’ve skated with the phenom in the preseason, and the trio makes a lot of sense for coach Luke Richardson.
Bertuzzi is a terrific passer who has played with high-end talent before and has some sandpaper to his game. Teravainen started his career in Chicago, winning a Stanley Cup in 2015. He’s a play driver and a “glue guy” who could get back to the 60-point mark as Bedard continues to develop into a superstar.
Editor’s Picks
2 Related
Broberg and Holloway made waves in the offseason when they signed offer sheets with the Blues and the Oilers opted not to match them. Both could have a big impact in their first seasons wearing the Note.
Broberg, 23, has just 81 games of regular-season experience, but he played well in 10 postseason games during Edmonton’s run last postseason (skating 15:48 per game). The Blues are high on him, with GM Doug Armstrong theorizing he could have “a good 10-year career here in St. Louis.” Broberg is expected to play alongside veteran Justin Faulk to start. Could he eventually move up as Colton Parayko‘s partner?
Holloway’s speed and tenacity make him a prototypical forward in today’s NHL. The Blues have played him with offseason pickup Radek Faksa, formerly of the Dallas Stars and a solid veteran from whom Holloway can learn. Holloway has actually yet to break double digits in points during his two NHL seasons. He should double his career totals in his first season in St. Louis.
This is more of a “re-breakout” possibility. Mantha’s first breakout happened back in 2018-19, when he scored 25 goals in 67 games for the Detroit Red Wings. Mantha, and the teams that have employed him, have been trying to recapture that magic for years. His stock hasn’t been lower than in last season’s playoffs with Vegas, who made him a healthy scratch.
He arrives in Calgary and is expected to play alongside Jonathan Huberdeau, another player looking to reverse his fortunes. This could be a symbiotic statistical relationship.
The 24-year-old defenseman spent the last three seasons with the Arizona Coyotes. But before he could suit up for the Utah Hockey Club, Moser was traded to the Lightning in that stunning Mikhail Sergachev deal. The expectation is that Moser is going to be Victor Hedman‘s partner to start the season, which is a pretty great place to be for a defenseman with some upside.
Smith is entering the 14th season of his NHL career, one that was defined by his six seasons as an original “Golden Misfit” with the Vegas Golden Knights. He’s been lucky since leaving Vegas when it comes to linemates: After skating with Evgeni Malkin in Pittsburgh last season, he was traded to the Rangers, where he’s expected to be the next right wing to skate with Chris Kreider and Mika Zibanejad.
“I think their body of work over their careers speaks for itself,” he said. “I’m going to try to do my best to complement their games.”
Tier 2: New sidekicks
These players could thrive with new linemates.
Byfield had a stellar 2023-24 with 20 goals and 55 points in 80 games — but that was as a winger. Now, the second overall pick in 2020 will move to the middle to his natural position at center on the Kings’ second line. They’ve set him up to succeed with wingers Kevin Fiala (29 goals, 73 points) and free-agent addition Warren Foegele, who learned a thing or two about playing with dynamic offensive centers while with the Edmonton Oilers.
Byfield showed he could produce in the NHL last season. Now it’s time to show he can make it in the middle.
The Ducks made the decision to manage Carlsson’s action as a 19-year-old rookie. He played 55 games and posted 29 points. He’s expected to see an increase in playing time in Year 2, and with a new face on his line with veteran winger Alex Killorn: Cutter Gauthier, the rookie scorer acquired from the Flyers last season.
Carlsson had impact on games that went beyond the stat line. This reconfigured line could be a dynamic one for Anaheim.
The words “if he’s in the lineup” might be permanently attached to everything said about Drysdale’s potential. His last season playing more than 35 games was 2021-22, when he tallied 32 points for the Ducks. In his first full season with the Flyers following a trade last season, Drysdale should also get a full run with defensive defenseman Nick Seeler after spending some time with him in 2023-24.
With Seeler doing the blue-collar work on the back end, Drysdale could be freed to finally hit the offensive heights that have been expected from him for years.
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For years, the line of Joe Pavelski, Roope Hintz and Jason Robertson was considered perhaps the best in the NHL. Pavelski’s retirement left a hole on with that trio that the 21-year-old Johnston will attempt to fill.
If anyone on the Stars can do it, and potentially even push them to greater heights, it’s Johnston — and not just because he spent two years living with Pavelski’s family.
The Toronto native has 106 points in 164 career games, breaking out with 32 goals and 33 assists last season. They put up ridiculous numbers together a line during a brief run last season: 4.93 goals for, and 0.51 goals against per 60 minutes. This is going to be fun.
Mikkola was an endearing part of the Panthers’ championship run, both as a low-key goofball in interviews and as an unexpected goal-scorer in the Stanley Cup Final. He lost his primary defensive partner last season in Brandon Montour, who left as a free agent for Seattle. So did Dmitry Kulikov, who played with Oliver Ekman-Larsson before the latter signed in Toronto.
Since they both need new dance partners, the Panthers might matchmake Kulikov and Mikkola. But Mikkola could also be paired up with former Blue Jacket Adam Boqvist, who signed a one-year deal in the summer. No matter with whom he plays, the 6-foot-4 Mikkola should see an increase in both role and attention in his sixth NHL season.
Novak is coming off his second straight productive offensive season for the Predators. With due respect to linemates like Luke Evangelista and Juuso Parssinen, they are not Steven Stamkos, whom Novak is expected to play with this season after the superstar signed as a free agent in Nashville. Stamkos is still an elite playmaker and Novak should obliterate his career best in goals (18).
Novak’s line could also include another free-agent coup in Jonathan Marchessault. How many “thank you” notes has he sent to GM Barry Trotz since the summer?
Tier 3: Young star to superstar
You might already know these names. Get ready to hear them a lot more.
Fantilli had 27 points in 49 games as a 19-year-old rookie last season in Columbus, averaging 15:43 in ice time per game. He averaged 8.4 shots per 60 minutes, which is a promising rate for a rookie — please note that Jack Eichel averaged nine shots per 60 minutes as a 19-year-old in Buffalo.
Fantilli should see increased ice time this season for the Jackets. If he gets anything on the power play, where he notched just three points last season, it could be a statistical breakout for the No. 3 overall in 2023.
It’s a testament to Hughes’ offensive spark that he was a Calder Trophy finalist last season. He had 47 points in 82 games, tied for the rookie defenseman lead with Brock Faber of the Wild. That was enough for voters to overlook a defensive game that had some glaring issues in his first NHL season.
In fairness to Hughes, he was thrown into a prominent role on the Devils’ blue line due to injuries to players like Dougie Hamilton. It was a “thrown into the fire” learning experience for a young talented defenseman that might benefit him. But the Devils will have to wait and see, as Hughes recovers from a shoulder injury at the start of the season.
The Canes goaltender played 42 games last season as Frederik Andersen was limited to 16 games due to injury. Andersen turns 35 this week. Antti Raanta is playing in Europe. While Spencer Martin may also get playing time, it’s possible Kochetkov owns the crease for the Carolina by the end of the season, something that’s been a long time coming.
Last season was proof of concept for the Rangers, who waited patiently for Lafrenière to mature into a dependable NHL scorer. It was rewarded with a 28-goal, 57-point season in 82 games for the first overall pick in 2020.
The key was an explosion in his shot totals. With over two minutes more in average ice time last season, Lafrenière saw his shot attempts increase by 161 and his shots on goals by 82. Another giant leap in production is in the cards, but probably requires more power-play output (six points last season).
The 22-year-old signed a two-year, $6.5 million bridge contract with the Jets this month that ended a brief stalemate between the sides. That means it’s time for Perfetti to get to work on his case for a longer extension, something for which he’s primed this season.
His third NHL season was his best numbers-wise (19 goals, 38 points in 71 games) despite limited early minutes and a putrid slump in the second half that saw him register one assist in 20 games. Those numbers should jump this season, especially if he sees significant time with Nikolaj Ehlers.
The 22-year-old defenseman built on a strong rookie season in 2022-23, with new highs in goals (10) and points (38) as his ice time increased to 23:13 per game. His shot attempts rose by 76 year-over-year.
Sanderson has talked about shooting at an even higher clip, citing players like Roman Josi as an inspiration for scoring goals from the blue line. One of the better young defensemen in the NHL is ready for the spotlight.
If there was a preseason poll for consensus breakout player, Slafkovsky would probably top the ranking.
The first overall pick in 2022 tore up the NHL with 19 points in his last 19 games last season, finally finding his stride offensively in Year 2 after a middling rookie campaign. The reason many assume he’ll build on that performance: His chemistry with Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki on the Canadiens’ top line.
Tier 4: The wait is over
Players we’ve been waiting to see break out that finally will.
Both of these forwards are expected to contribute in a big way to the Sabres’ second line with center Dylan Cozens.
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Quinn, 23, is looking for the breakout season he was supposed to have in 2023-24, when he was limited to 27 games due to an Achilles tendon injury before the season, and a lower-body injury that cost him almost all of the February and March. He still managed 19 points in 27 games.
Benson had a promising rookie season (30 points in 71 games), showing great hockey sense and an effective two-way game. If the Sabres are going to take the leap to playoff contention, they’ll need players like this to leap first.
The Kings took a serious hit in the preseason when star defenseman Drew Doughty was lost to a broken ankle. After surgery, Doughty is “month to month,” according to the team.
Clarke was already expected to have a bigger role on the Kings’ blue line, after two seasons of limited action. He’s slotted to play with veteran Joel Edmundson, whom the team signed as a free agent. But he’s also expected to have a bigger than anticipated role on special teams, perhaps even taking on Doughty’s top-unit power-play duties.
The Golden Knights are fairly thin on the wings this season in terms of scoring power. Enter Dorofeyev, who had 13 goals and 24 points in 47 games last season, averaging 13:17 per game. He’s a player coach Bruce Cassidy has praised for his ability to take the puck to the net and to create offense in tough areas of the ice.
He’s a had a productive preseason and could see time in the Knights’ top six during the 2024-25 campaign.
Edvinsson has always had the vertical, standing 6-foot-6. In the offseason, he decided to address the horizontal by adding some muscle to his frame for his first full NHL season. The secret to his bulk? “It was just a lot of avocados,” he said.
Edvinsson saw time with veteran Jeff Petry last season, and should do so again in 2024-25. Fans have waited a bit to see the No. 6 pick from 2021 make his impact. This could be the time.
While Utah owner Ryan Smith would have preferred an expansion team over the relocated Coyotes, one of the advantages of the latter was having some foundational young players already on the roster. Chief among them was Guenther, who signed an eight-year contract extension worth $57.14 million in the offseason.
He had 18 goals in 45 games last season, his ice time jumping by over three minutes per game. Expect him to line up across from standout Logan Cooley for Utah, one of the best young duos in the West.
Knies boasted during training camp that he’s a better player than Auston Matthews … in tennis. “I kind of smoke him a little bit,” he said. Upon hearing that, Matthews called him a liar. Clearly, this needs to be settled on the court with the soundtrack from “Challengers” blaring from the speakers.
On the ice, Knies spent the majority of his rookie season on a line with Matthews, scoring 15 goals and 35 points in 80 games. He’s put more muscle on his 6-2 frame, and could push closer to 50 points in his second full season.
Tier 5: Rookie sensations
First-year players who aren’t waiting for their breakout.
The first overall pick in the 2024 draft has had a tantalizing preseason for the Sharks. On the ice, he showed off the offensive skill that made him a coveted prospect. Off the ice, he impressed veteran teammates with his work ethic, which was also his calling card at Boston University.
The new face of the franchise looks good already.
The 20-year-old former Boston College star is expected to play in the Ducks’ top six. He plays a power forward game, with good puck protection and hockey sense.
He’ll be a young player to watch … especially on Jan. 11, when he makes his first visit to Philadelphia after declining to play for the Flyers, the team that originally drafted him.
The diminutive (listed at 5-9) defenseman is an offensive dynamo. He’s got great wheels, playmaking ability and vision on the ice. He’s great at breaking out of his own zone, either with a pass or by skating the puck himself.
As is the case for any young NHL blueliner, there will be a learning curve defensively. But the hype applied to Hutson by Habs fans should be rewarded.
If McGroarty is going to make an impact for the Penguins, it’ll likely be later in the season. The 20-year-old former University of Michigan standout was acquired by Pittsburgh after he refused to sign with the Jets, who drafted him. The Penguins traded top prospect Brayden Yager to acquire McGroarty, which signaled how high they are on him.
All of that said, he hasn’t played a minute of pro hockey yet, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him get AHL reps early in the season. But he’s talented enough to make an impact for the parent club before too long.
The rock star of the rookie class. Michkov is a dazzling offensive talent, with off-the-charts hockey instincts, creativity and goal-scoring prowess. GM Daniel Briere is trying to keep expectations low for Michkov’s rookie season, specifically saying that he will have to learn to handle the physicality in the NHL.
But the buzz is undeniable that the young Russian could challenge for the Calder Trophy this season. Provided, of course, that he gets on OK with coach John Tortorella. Briere admitted he expects “some fireworks” between the two.
Smith is now roommates with Macklin Celebrini, as two college rivals become NHL besties. Given the state of the Sharks, Smith should get significant playing time and the opportunity to flash his considerable offensive skills.
He played one season at Boston College, with 71 points in 41 games.
The 21-year-old center kept his rookie status by one game last season, scoring 14 points in 24 games for Dallas. He played 19 more in the playoffs, tallying eight points.
Stankoven should play with Stars captain Jamie Benn this season, and will be a critical young player the Cup contender will count on to get them over the Western Conference hump.
