NHL betting tips: Odds, lines and picks for Panthers-Devils

Sean Allen, Special to ESPN.comJan 14, 2025, 12:36 PM ET

Close

An immovable object meets an unstoppable force when the New Jersey Devils host the Florida Panthers at Prudential Center on Tuesday.

OK, so it’s not quite dramatic enough to warrant a monster truck rally, but when looking at this matchup for a theme, one thing stands out: “Hey, those are two pretty good teams.” Sure enough, both have top-four odds to win the Stanley Cup, according to ESPN BET. They’re also among the 12 teams with at least 50 points in the standings entering Tuesday.

When two heavyweights clash, how are the sportsbooks lining up the odds? Is it as easy as picking the home team as the favorite?

Fortunately, these teams clash often enough that we can take a closer look.

Of those 12 teams with at least 50 points this season, there have been 12 matchups between them in the past two weeks. Most of the time the home team does end up as the favorite when it’s a game between two strong teams (eight of 12). It makes sense: When all else is pretty equal, go with the team on home ice. The results don’t always back that up, though.

It’s Not Too Late To Play Fantasy Hockey

Create or join a fantasy hockey league on ESPN. New leagues start fresh weekly! Sign up today>>

The favorite is only 7-5 in those 12 games (58.3%). Even take it back four weeks for matchups only between the top 12 teams and favorites are just 13-10 (56.5%). Remember that the margin is larger overall, as favorites are 417-273 across the 690 NHL games so far this season (60.4%). Is it a small sample size? Yes, but it’s also logical that it becomes more difficult to set odds when both teams are very good.

The Panthers enter this matchup as road underdogs, a role that has taken the money line only 38.2% of the time this season (161 out of 422 games). As you might expect from the defending champions, the Panthers defy that and stand 4-2 on the season in such situations.

The Devils, for their part, are 13-9 in games as the home favorite (59.1%, just a hair under the overall rate of 61.8% this season).

So, what does it all mean for Tuesday night? The odds suggest the Devils have the edge, but the Panthers have shown they thrive in the road underdog role. When two elite teams meet, the margins are razor-thin and unpredictability reigns.

In such a situation, it’s tempting to just attack the most favorable payout odds, which is usually the favorite’s spread. If we look at those 12 games over the past two weeks, that would have hit five times and lost seven times, resulting in a very slight profit.

Latest odds as of publication. For latest odds movement, go to ESPN BET.

Pick: Devils -1.5 (+165)

Featured games

Nate Schmidt of the Florida Panthers. Aaron Baker/Icon Sportswire

Florida Panthers at New Jersey Devils

7:30 p.m., Prudential Center

Watch live on ESPN+ and Hulu

Devils (-1.5, +165), -145 money line
Panthers (+1.5, -200), +125 money line
Total 5.5: (Over -145, Under +120)

The Panthers have confirmed Spencer Knight in the crease, but that doesn’t change much, as he has virtually the same rate stats as Sergei Bobrovsky this season. It’s tough to say what the Devils will do in net, as Jacob Markstrom is currently at his season high of four consecutive starts. We are due for a Jake Allen appearance imminently and perhaps knowing Bobrovsky is not in net is enough for the Devils to also rest Markstrom. That would change things a bit, as Allen has not been a one-for-one replacement of Markstrom this campaign and it could be reason enough to lean Panthers.

Fantasy hockey essentials

• Free agent pickups: Who to add
• Weekly trends: Power play, goalie picks
• Projections | Goalie depth chart
• Rankings | Player rater
• January schedule hacks, lineup tips
• It’s not too late, sign up today!

Another quirk shared by both these teams is they allow the fewest (Devils, 17.1) and second fewest (Panthers, 17.7) shots against per game by the opposing forwards. It might be reason enough to take the under on some of the player props for shots on goal, such as Jack Hughes under 3.5 total shots on goal (-110) or Aleksander Barkov under 1.5 shots on goal (+140).

How about a Hail Mary prop? With Aaron Ekblad out of commission, Nate Schmidt has been firing the pucks from the blue line on the Panthers’ top power-play unit. What if one goes in? Nate Schmidt over 0.5 total goals (+1000) is a huge parlay boost if you are taking a shot in the dark. Better yet, Nate Schmidt first goal scorer (+4000) has astronomical odds but is situationally more possible than it usually is.

Betting trends

One of the only global trends so far this season to get a positive net result on the “$1 every bet” test is the under on a 6.5 total. If we had put $1 on every 6.5 game to be under, we would have grossed $192.72 on 228 wins and lost $158 for a net result of $34.72. All the other global $1 bet tests with minimal criteria are swallowed by the vig and would have lost money.

Editor’s Picks

1 Related

But not our precious under 6.5.

However, the sportsbooks have adjusted.

The halfway point of the NHL season to date would be about 345 games, which occurred around Nov. 26. Prior to and including that date, 225 of the 345 games had a 6.5 over/under total — that’s 65.2%. The rest, of course, had the 5.5 over/under total we otherwise see.

After Nov. 26, only 161 of the 345 games have had a 6.5 over/under total — 46.7%.

That is a massive adjustment by the oddsmakers to start leaning in on lower totals. Sure enough, Tuesday’s 13-game slate features only four games with a 6.5 total.

While going under on most 6.5 totals still makes sense, there isn’t really enough of them to make it a betting strategy anymore. After all, if we are getting fewer, we can assume they are very much targeted selections. Are you going to disagree that the goaltending of the Sharks, Red Wings, Flyers, Blue Jackets, Penguins, Kraken, Rangers and Avalanche won’t collectively limit each other to 26 goals on Tuesday? That’s not what the bet is, of course, but when you see the list of teams that are part of the high-total games, they are certainly being singled out.

If you are curious to take a closer look at all the over/under $1 tests, here they are: