Oct 18, 2024, 05:30 PM ET
Last week I felt as if I were on a long and lonesome highway, east of Omaha after all three of my bets failed to cash. First, Marvin Harrison Jr. left early with a concussion. Obviously, his health is what’s most important here, but it was still a bummer to lose a bet by the second quarter of a game. Then, the Detroit Lions did exactly what I thought they were going to do: utilize their running backs to dominate the Cowboys banged-up defensive line. That’s great, right? Actually, no. David Montgomery didn’t hit his mark of 10 receiving yards, and even though the game script worked out perfectly in our favor, CeeDee Lamb fell well short of his receiving line and didn’t find the end zone.
That brought me to 0-3 on the day. Some weeks it just seems like you’re running against the wind. Oh, and on top of that, my Lions lost potential DPOY Aidan Hutchinson to a brutal season-ending injury. I felt like a beautiful loser, because some weeks, you just can’t have it all. So, just like my guy Bob Seger, I was ready to turn the page on last week. (Quick note, my dad and his band opened a concert for Seger long before I was born, which I’ve always thought was cool.) So, from dad, Mr. Seger and myself, how about we all turn the page and look ahead to Week 7. If you’re a Ramblin’ Gamblin’ Man like me, I hope you enjoy a new edition of props that pop! — Daniel Dopp
All odds as of publication time. For the latest odds, visit ESPN BET.
Quarterback props
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Ladd McConkey’s fantasy outlook for Week 7
Explore Ladd McConkey’s fantasy numbers as he prepares for his Week 7 matchup against the Cardinals.
Justin Herbert OVER 249.5 passing yards & Ladd McConkey anytime touchdown (+950)
Loza: It’s my birthday so I’m celebrating with some spicy picks. Yes, Herbert is tethered to a low-volume passing offense, but he still has a canon. He also threw for 237 yards (without surrendering a single pick) against a stout Broncos’ defense. Pat Surtain II‘s early exit certainly made Herbert’s job easier, but even a Surtain-less Denver Broncos squad is stiffer than the Arizona Cardinals. Arizona’s passing defense ranks either last or close to the bottom in nearly every metric including completion percentage, yards per attempt and completions of 10-plus yards allowed while also registering the seventh-fewest pressures.
Arizona Cardinals passing defense
| Comp pct | 72% (31st) |
| Yards per att | 8.1 (31st) |
| 10-yard comp | 61 (T-28th) |
| Pressures | 50 (26th) |
In a game with a spread of 2.5 there should be enough volleying to push Herbert to the over. Leaning on the team’s No. 1 WR is how he’ll best accomplish that task. McConkey leads all Bolts’ pass catchers in routes run, targets drawn, receptions and receiving yards. He found the end zone in Week 5 and nearly managed a second trip during the first quarter of Week 6. With red zone looks in back-to-back efforts and facing a Cardinals squad that has allowed the sixth-most scores to opposing WRs (8), McConkey should find six Sunday.
Running back props
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Is Bijan Robinson hitting his stride in fantasy?
Tristan H. Cockcroft breaks down Bijan Robinson’s fantasy production in the Falcons’ win in Week 6.
Bijan Robinson OVER 59.6 rushing yards (-135) + Tyler Allgeier longest rush OVER 13.5 yards (-110)
Loza: Forget déjà vu, it’s Bija vu in Flowery Branch (kudos to ace researcher Kevin Pulsifer for coming up with that clever turn of phrase). Robinson might have crushed in Week 6, but the Falcons’ backfield remains too much of a timeshare for fantasy fans. The fun thing about betting, though, is that there’s zero loyalty. Hence, a wager that includes both of Atlanta’s RBs.
Robinson has cleared the above line in four of six games and has averaged over 63 rushing yards per contest. As three-point home favorites, game flow figures to work in his favor, as does the matchup. The Seahawks have allowed 5.0 yards per carry to opposing rushers. More specifically, Seattle ranks 28th in opponent yards before contact per rush this season (3.13), meaning the defense has struggled to push through blocks and contain rival RBs. This sets up nicely for Robinson, who ranks 12th at the position in rushing yards before first contact (220).
Interestingly, Allgeier has posted more rushes over 10 yards than his backfield mate (despite averaging about five fewer totes per outing), managing the 12th most at the position (10). Meanwhile, Seattle has been below average at tackling, giving up the 13th most opponent yards post-contact per rush (1.86). Noting Allgeier’s impressive breakaway run rate and given that Seattle has given up seven runs over 20 yards (tied for second most), the team’s RB2 seems likely to rip off a long one. Bet on both backs to eat Sunday.
Jahmyr Gibbs longest rush OVER 13.5 rushing yards (EVEN)
On Friday’s edition of “Fantasy Focus Football,” I talked about the Vikings’ stout run defense this year, as they’ve allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs in 2024. I know this is a betting column and not a fantasy column, but hear me out. One of the reasons the Vikings have been so good against opposing teams’ RBs has been game script. Minnesota is 5-0 this season and has largely dominated teams, forcing them to abandon the run in favor of the pass. The Vikings have only 93 rush attempts against them, the lowest total in the NFL. I don’t think that trend will continue this week with the Detroit Lions coming to town. As someone who is as locked in as it gets with this team, I can tell you the Lions pride themselves on their ability to run the football against every opponent, regardless of how good or bad the matchup is, and that’s a mentality that will continue in Week 7. Dan Campbell and his offensive coordinator, Ben Johnson, are known for their ability to establish the run, use play action and stretch the field with their difference-makers such as Jameson Williams and Amon-Ra St. Brown. Gibbs is one of those difference-makers out of the backfield, showcasing his game-breaking ability nearly every week. Here is his longest rush in each of the past four games: 24 yards, 18 yards, 20 yards and 15 yards. To further that note, Gibbs has eight different rushes of 14 or more yards this season. That streak should continue this week in Minnesota, in large part because this will be the best team the Vikings have faced all season. The Lions are coming off a dominating 47-9 win in Dallas and won’t back down to an NFC North opponent without a fight. Don’t be afraid of the raw numbers, this week will be different for all the reasons I laid out, which is why I’m taking Gibbs longest rush OVER 13.5 rushing yards.
Tony Pollard OVER 90.5 rushing + receiving yards (-114)
Dopp: Pollard seems to be the lone man standing in that Titans backfield heading into Week 7 with Tyjae Spears ruled out due to a hamstring injury. Pollard will get the lion’s share of the workload against Buffalo this week, and bettors should be pumped about that. First off, the Bills have been awful at containing running backs this year, allowing 5.3 yards per carry (second most in the NFL). They’ve also let four different RBs smash this total yardage prop this season, with another three running backs coming within 8 yards of besting this line.
That bodes well for Pollard, who has been much better this season than he was last year as the lead back in Dallas. In 2024, Pollard has beaten this line in three of his five games, and he came within 3 yards of topping 90.5 rushing + receiving yards in another outing. By the way, in the game in which he fell 3 yards short, he had three receptions for minus-5 yards, which absolutely seems like an anomaly, so I’m still viewing that game as a net positive for Pollard.
Tennessee cannot throw the football down the field. The Titans have been atrocious at finding Calvin Ridley and DeAndre Hopkins on a consistent basis, but Pollard has been able to be productive in the passing game even with inconsistent QB play. With the Titans struggling to get others involved and Spears on the sideline, Pollard is in a smash spot in this one against a weak defense that should play into his strengths.
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Tank Bigsby anytime TD (-105)
Dopp: That’s right, I’m taking a London bet! With the Jags likely playing without Travis Etienne Jr. in this one, Bigsby will be in line for more work once again. This week, he’ll face the New England Patriots, who have struggled against opposing teams’ running backs. So far this year, the Pats have allowed seven different RBs into the painted area: Joe Mixon, Breece Hall, Jordan Mason, Zack Moss, Zach Charbonnet, Dameon Pierce and, surprisingly, Alec Ingold.
It’s a nice matchup for a Jaguars team that should have a condensed running back room with Bigsby and D’Ernest Johnson as the main contributors out of the backfield. Bigsby has clearly been the No. 2 back behind Etienne this season, so don’t let last week’s snap count make you think that Johnson will force a 50/50 split, as 27 of his 34 snaps came in the second half of a blowout loss. Without Etienne, Tank is the Jaguars’ guy, and this matchup is a nice rebound spot for Jacksonville, Bigsby and me after all three of us had a rough week in Week 6.
One final note: I’m pretty sure if you’ve got Bigsby in your running back room, it’s illegal to give goal line touches to anyone other than him. He should get first crack at finding the end zone as he’s the only RB on the roster other than Etienne who has had carries inside the 5 this season.
Wide receiver prop
Jordan Addison OVER 49.5 receiving yards (-120)
Editor’s Picks
2 Related
Loza: It has been a rocky start to Addison’s second year as a pro. He has exactly three catches in each of his three outings. Despite missing two games due to an ankle issue, the 22-year-old ranks second among the team’s WRs in looks. He struggled mightily against the Jets’ stout secondary back in Week 5 but will be fully rested and coming out of a bye. Addison figures to rebound into fantasy flex territory.
The 5-0 Vikings will host a surging Lions squad for an NFC North showdown this Sunday. Detroit will be without star DE Aidan Hutchinson and that should offer Sam Darnold some much-appreciated relief and time, particularly when targeting Addison downfield. The Lions have proved generous to opposing wideouts, allowing the fourth-most yards (an average of 211 per game) to the position. Noting a projected point total of 50.5 and a spread of 1.5, Addison is likely to eclipse his current catch total while cruising past 50 receiving yards.
