NFL playoff picture projections after Week 2: Updated chances for

Sep 17, 2024, 09:45 AM ET

We’re through Week 2 of the 2024 NFL regular season, and although the postseason is months away, we’re taking an early look at the current playoff picture and the road to Super Bowl LIX.

Which teams are already in good shape? Which still have a lot of work to do to ultimately get into the 14-team field? We used ESPN’s Football Power Index to project the rest of the season, looking at the playoff picture for both conferences. We included updated odds for every team to make the postseason, clinch its division and even make the Super Bowl. Here’s everything you need right now.

Last update: Sept. 17 at 9:45 a.m. ET

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AFC | NFC

Projecting the AFC playoff field

Two teams in the NFL have an 85% or better chance to make the playoffs this season, and they both play in the AFC. The Chiefs (who beat the Bengals in Week 2) sit at 91%, while the Bills (fresh off a win against Miami) are at 89%. But here’s an interesting one: The Chargers have the fourth-best chance to make the playoffs in the conference at 69%. The Ravens dropped from 61% to 42% after their loss to Las Vegas.

The Broncos have the lowest chance to make the postseason in the AFC, currently at 4%. But the Dolphins are sliding in our projections due to some uncertainty at quarterback after Tua Tagovailoa left Miami’s Week 2 loss with a concussion.

Projecting the NFC playoff field

Even after their Monday night loss to Atlanta, the Eagles have a 73% chance to make the playoffs, second-best in the NFC. But here’s something no one was predicting before the season began: The Saints — who have scored 91 points through two weeks — are No. 1 in the conference here at 81%. ESPN’s FPI gives them a 53% chance to win the NFC South, too.

The Lions’ loss to the Bucs dropped their chances to 53%, and the Rams (down their top two receivers) plummeted to 11% after their second loss. They now rank 29th in the NFL in playoff chances just two weeks after being 16th (45%).

Things don’t look great for the Panthers and Giants. Both teams are below 5% to make the playoffs. Bryce Young and Daniel Jones have combined for two touchdown throws and five interceptions and have taken 12 sacks so far, and Young was recently benched by the Panthers.