Sep 28, 2024, 08:30 AM ET
We might have started off slow, but Daniel Dopp and I have picked up steam as the NFL season has rounded into form.
Despite the curve balls thrown at bettors in Week 3, five of our six props popped! We’ll aim to keep that momentum going into Week 4, attempting to exploit injuries, inclement weather and a few underwhelming matchups.
Let’s get to it! — Liz Loza
All odds as of publication time. For the latest odds, visit ESPN BET.
Quarterback props
Justin Fields OVER 174.5 passing yards (-135)
Loza: Fields is, by no means, known for his passing production, nor is his offensive coordinator. Still, the former Bear is coming off of his best passing total of the young season (245 yards). His completion percentage, yards per attempt and number of throws over 20 yards have climbed since Week 1, demonstrating a growing comfort in his new squad.
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He figures to keep the momentum rolling in Week 4, while taking advantage of a plus matchup. The Indianapolis Colts will be without not only starting DE Kwity Paye, but also slot corner Kenny Moore. That should keep some pressure off of Fields and open things up for Calvin Austin III, who happened to be on the receiving end of Fields’ lone passing score in Week 3. While the spread on this game isn’t exactly indicating a points bonanza, Fields averaged 197 passing yards per game in 2023. He figures to post similar numbers Sunday.
Kyler Murray 275+ passing + rushing yards (Even)
Dopp: I will touch on why Marvin Harrison Jr. is in a smash spot in Week 4, but I’m looking at his QB to smash as well! Feel free to take all of the “Commanders are bad at stopping WRs” analysis below on MHJ and apply it to this part of the column as well. Washington can be had through the air, and even though the Commanders haven’t given up a ton of rushing yards to QBs this year, they haven’t really played any rushing quarterbacks so far. Baker Mayfield, Joe Burrow and Daniel Jones combined for only 57 rushing yards against the Commanders, but none of those guys has the ability that Murray has on the ground.
Murray has rushed for at least 45 yards in all three games this season and should be able to feast against this secondary through the air. Knowing that both Baker and Burrow bested this mark, even with minimal rushing, gives me a ton of confidence in Murray. This game has an implied total of 48.5, the highest on the Week 4 slate. I don’t think we get there unless Kyler is doing Kyler things. Given his rushing and passing ability, as well as the soft defense of Washington and the highest total of the week, I’m confident in taking him to beat the number here.
Running back props
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Is Zack Moss a must-start RB against the Panthers?
Mike Clay explains why Zack Moss could be a “lineup lock” in Week 4 against the Panthers.
Zack Moss OVER 49.5 rushing yards (-135), anytime TD (-135)
Editor’s Picks
2 Related
Loza: Moss appears to have edged out Chase Brown as the Cincinnati Bengals‘ RB1. He has averaged 14 touches per game and is coming off of his best rushing output (58 yards) of the season. He also ranks seventh at the position in red zone carries (11), with three of those totes occurring at the goal line (RB9).
Those high-value opportunities only figure to increase as Cincinnati’s offense gets healthier and rounds into form. The team figures to hit a stride given this weekend’s matchup at Carolina. The Panthers have allowed the sixth-most rushing yards to opposing RBs (374 rushing yards, 4.7 YPC) and the third-highest number of rushing scores to the position (4). With the Bengals as 4.5-point favorites, Moss should manage upwards of 55 rushing yards while finding the end zone, making this a winning build for Week 4.
Wide receiver props
Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison should have a field day against Washington’s defense. Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images
Marvin Harrison Jr. OVER 69.5 receiving yards (-130), Anytime TD (-120)
Dopp: A few things have become irrefutable truths in football through the first three weeks of the season. One, top tier tight ends have mostly stunk this year. Two, Brandon Aubrey has overtaken Justin Tucker as the best deep kicker in football. And three, the Commanders defense is the real-world equivalent of Charmin Ultra Soft. It’s that last one we’re going to home in on with this prop.
This Washington secondary has allowed at least 80 receiving yards to a wide receiver in each of its first three games. First to Chris Godwin, who put up eight catches for 83 yards and a TD, then to Malik Nabers, who showed out with 127 yards and a TD, and lastly to Ja’Marr Chase, who toasted it for 118 yards and two TDs. Enter Marvin Harrison Jr., who is in a prime position to follow suit here in Week 4.
The Commanders have given up the third-most yards to wide receivers and a league-worst nine touchdowns to the position. This receiving game runs through MHJ, and with Trey McBride ruled out because of a concussion, the target tree just got more condensed. I’m expecting another massive WR game, which is why I’m taking OVER 69.5 receiving yards as a solo bet, and I’m also making a mini parlay of OVER 69.5 with an anytime TD at +163.
Tyreek Hill OVER 49.5 receiving yards (-135)
Loza: Hill’s receiving totals have sagged in back-to-back efforts. The QB change has, undeniably, destroyed Hill’s ceiling. However, the 30-year-old posted at least 50 receiving yards in two of the four games in which Tua Tagovailoa was sidelined during the 2023 season.
Hill’s odds of bouncing back are bettered by the absence of Chidobe Awuzie. Admittedly, L’Jarius Sneed still poses a legitimate threat. Still, Hill logged at least 60 receiving yards in both of the outings in which he faced Sneed last year. It won’t be easy, but backing a player as dynamic as Hill makes good sense (and cents).
Jaxon Smith-Njigba OVER 49.5 receiving yards (-105)
Dopp: The Detroit Lions have been incredible against RBs through the first three games — and much less than incredible at stopping WRs this season. As much as I love my Lions, they’ve had some serious issues shutting down opposing teams’ pass catchers. So let’s start there.
The Lions have given up 609 yards to WRs this season, the most in the NFL. They’ve also given up the second-most completions in the slot to WRs this year, which is where JSN has aligned more often than not in this Ryan Grubb-led offense. Lastly, the Lions have allowed five different players to his this mark in just three games: Godwin, Cooper Kupp, Tyler Johnson, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson. And to top it all off, Smith-Njigba has emerged as the clear No. 2 pass catcher in this offense. He has run the same number of routes as DK Metcalf, has only three fewer targets than DK and showcased what he can do in the right situation with a massive 117-yard outing in Week 2. I know he has fallen short of this line in the other two games this year, but this matchup, combined with his 84% snap share, gives me a ton of confidence here.
