NFC South betting preview: New-look Falcons favored

Aug 25, 2024, 08:30 AM ET

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+145 to make the playoffs) won their third straight NFC South title last season and upset the Philadelphia Eagles in the playoffs before falling to the Detroit Lions in the divisional round. But it’s the rebuilt Atlanta Falcons (-135) who are favored to take the division in 2024.

After spending the last six seasons in Minnesota, Kirk Cousins takes over what is expected to be a revitalized offense in Atlanta. Coming off a torn Achilles, Cousins inherits a unit that includes an emerging young trio of RB Bijan Robinson, WR Drake London and TE Kyle Pitts. Is it enough to put the Falcons over the top?

Meanwhile, the New Orleans Saints matched Tampa Bay last season with a 9-8 record but lost out on the division and a playoff berth as a result of the Buccaneers owning the tiebreaker (higher win percentage in common games). The Saints are 4-1 to win the division in 2024 and are -210 to miss out on the postseason once again.

The Carolina Panthers are coming off a two-win season but added RB Jonathon Brooks and WR Xavier Legette in the draft and WR Diontae Johnson via free agency to give some help to 2023 top overall pick Bryce Young. Young struggled as a rookie in what was the league’s lowest-scoring offense, and the Panthers remain long shots to make a significant jump, although their win total is set at 5.5 (Over -115/Under -105).

Here are all the odds for the NFC South teams and our thoughts on potential wagers.

Odds as of publication. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET.

NFC South odds

Notable NFC South props

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Courtesy ESPN Stats & Information

ESPN’s Football Power Index does not expect a team to run away with the division this year, with the Falcons the projected favorite with 9.6 wins. The AFC South is the only other division without a team projected to have at least 10.0 wins.
Mike Evans became the only player in NFL history with at least 1,000 receiving yards in each of his first 10 seasons when he recorded 1,255 yards on 79 receptions in 2023. Only Jerry Rice had a longer streak of consecutive seasons recording 1,000 or more receiving yards, doing so in 11 straight seasons from 1986-96.
London became the third player in franchise history to tally at least 800 receiving yards in each of his first two seasons, joining Calvin Ridley (2018-19) and Julio Jones (2011-12). Pitts is the first tight end in Falcons’ history with at least 2,000 receiving yards over his first three NFL seasons. Robinson led all rookie running backs with 1,463 scrimmage yards in 2023.
The Saints defense allowed 19.2 points per game last season, eighth in the NFL and the franchise’s lowest mark since 2013. New Orleans particularly excelled on third down, holding opponents to a 34.5% conversion rate, the fourth-best rate in the NFL.
Bryce Young ranked either last or second-to-last in several passing categories in 2023, and was sacked 62 times and had the fourth-fewest passing yards per attempt in a season in NFL history.

Staff bets

Falcons to win division (-135), OVER 9.5 wins (-130)

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I love the addition of Cousins. Offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, who comes from the Sean McVay coaching tree, will implement a familiar offensive scheme for the quarterback. Atlanta added WR Darnell Mooney to an already talented crop of weapons, and LB Matthew Judon and S Justin Simmons join what looks like a top-10 defense. The Falcons have the easiest projected strength of schedule this season and likely will play in only one or two cold weather games (at Denver in Week 11, at Washington in Week 17). These birds are ready to fly! — Anita Marks

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