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Kevin Seifert, ESPN Staff WriterOct 3, 2024, 06:00 AM ET
- Kevin Seifert is a staff writer who covers the Minnesota Vikings and the NFL at ESPN. Kevin has covered the NFL for over 20 years, joining ESPN in 2008. He was previously a beat reporter for the Minneapolis Star Tribune and Washington Times. He is a graduate of the University of Virginia. You can follow him via Twitter @SeifertESPN.
The Houston Texans had pulled to within two scores of the Minnesota Vikings in their Week 3 matchup, and coach DeMeco Ryans decided to take a risk.
He chose to leverage the NFL’s new kickoff rules in an effort to accelerate the Texans’ comeback. Place-kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn attempted a knuckle ball on the ensuing kickoff, a low kick designed to land near the goal line and force the Vikings into a frantic return that would pin them well short of the 30-yard line, where touchbacks are spotted.
The ball indeed landed at the Vikings’ 7-yard line, but it bounced out of bounds at the 5 for a penalty. Instead of starting with poor field position, the Vikings were at the 40-yard line and soon scored again en route to a 34-7 victory.
NFL kickoff rule in a nutshell here. Texans try to capitalize with a “knuckle ball” kick and pin the Vikings. Ball bounces as required in the landing zone — but goes out of bounds at the 5. Vikings get possession at 40. pic.twitter.com/IcUePKUAtV
— Kevin Seifert (@SeifertESPN) October 2, 2024
The sequence demonstrated both the promise and difficulty of the NFL’s new kickoff rules, which have spurred creative approaches from some coaches but caution from most.
Through four weeks of the season, the leaguewide rate of returning a kickoff is 29%, up notably from 17% during the same timeframe in 2023 but still the third-lowest return rate since 2000. More than two-thirds of kickoffs (68%) have gone for touchbacks as coaches have chosen certainty of field position over the risk-reward of a live return.
Return rates typically rise during the second half of an NFL season, largely because bad weather limits deep kicks, but it will take a major shift over the next three months to meet the league’s preseason projections of a return rate of 50% to 60%. Tweaking the rules during the offseason remains a possibility.
Injury data on the kickoffs — a key driver of the rule change — is not yet publicly available, though commissioner Roger Goodell said on NFL Network this week that early indications are “really good.”
“There’s a lot of elements that go into defining what success is on this play,” NFL officiating rules analyst Walt Anderson said. “And so, really, we’re taking the approach of, ‘Hey, it’s a long season. Everybody’s going to have to get used to this. Let’s not worry about evaluating it upfront.’ There will be plenty of time to evaluate it after the season.
“But from our standpoint, it’s at least heading in what we feel like is the right direction, which is increasing the number of returns, making the play more exciting and then, obviously, everybody hopes that it’s also making it safer.”
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
THE NFL OVERHAULED its kickoff structure after teams posted a 22% return rate during the 2023 season, the lowest in history. The league’s competition committee used a template first developed by the XFL in 2020, which reduced high-speed collisions that could cause concussions, and also incentivized returns.
Instead of running down the field after the kick, 10 members of the coverage team and at least nine members of the return team start the play in a setup zone 25 yards away from the kicker. They can’t move until the ball hits the ground, a player or the end zone. Touchbacks are spotted at the 30-yard line. Onside kicks must be declared ahead of time and can’t go 25 yards past the spot of the kick. So far this season, teams have recovered 1 of 10 attempts.
The XFL placed touchbacks at the 35-yard line, a big reason why it achieved a 92% return rate. Sam Schwartzstein, who led the XFL rules team, said he calculated that consistently pinning an opponent inside the 20 would create a 5% change in win probability, given the additional first downs needed to score.
The NFL’s original proposal also called for touchbacks to be spotted at the 35, but it was changed to the 30 during final negotiations. That shift made touchbacks more palatable to coaches and provided them less incentive to opt for returnable kicks over drilling the ball through the end zone.
“As soon as they lowered from 35 to 30,” said New Orleans Saints special teams coordinator Darren Rizzi, one of a handful of coaches who spearheaded the new rule, “that probably chopped 40 percent off that top [return rate] number.”
It’s clear, however, that at least some coaches simply prefer the certainty of a touchback no matter where it’s spotted. Only 19.8% of kicks have dropped into the “landing zone” between the goal line and the 20, which requires a return. Nearly 80% have traveled in the air to the end zone or beyond.
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Sixteen teams, exactly half of the league, have touchback rates of 75% or higher. They’re led by the Los Angeles Rams, who have had only one of 21 kickoffs returned, and even that one was brought back from the end zone.
Rams coach Sean McVay said earlier this season the “unforeseen” of returnable kicks — the penalties involved in kicking out of bounds or falling short of the landing zone, as well as new blocking schemes they haven’t scouted — are too much of a risk.
“That was kind of the approach, just not really knowing [what it would look like],” McVay said. “It felt like that was the smart thing for us.”
The Vikings have 20 touchbacks on 23 kickoffs, and one of the three returns came after a ball was mishit by rookie place-kicker Will Reichard. During their 4-0 start, the Vikings haven’t trailed since the first quarter of Week 1, and coach Kevin O’Connell has believed it to be unnecessary — at the risk of giving them excellent field position — to pin opponents deep.
“A lot of times you’re thinking, ‘Hey, our defense, they’ve played really well,'” O’Connell said. “The last thing you want to do is give up some yardage without those guys on the field. … I don’t know if it’s a product of that, necessarily, or just kind of our approach to this new play early on in the season.
“There’s some unknowns that can take place on that play, from the type of kick you hit to a team’s willingness to bring it out maybe from five, six, seven yards deep. The coverage has to be airtight every time. It’ll be kind of a moving target and a changing thing throughout the year, I think.”
When the ball is kicked into the end zone, most return units have chosen to accept the guaranteed field position of a touchback. The handful of teams that have been aggressive in those situations have not seen an advantage.
Of the 10 teams with the most kickoff returns in 2024, only one — the Arizona Cardinals — has posted a better average drive start than the league average of 29.3, though the Cardinals’ average (35.0) is skewed by DeeJay Dallas‘ 96-yard touchdown return in Week 1, the NFL’s lone score under the new rules.
The Saints, utilizing Rizzi’s advocacy and knowledge of the rule, have probably best used it to their advantage. They have been particularly aggressive in attempting to pin opponents inside the 20, recording the league’s second-lowest touchback rate (29.6%), highest opponent return rate (70.4%) and lowest average drive start after a return (27-yard line).
Rizzi credited “buy-in” from players as well as a commitment from coach Dennis Allen to devote practice time to it.
“Everybody at this point has the same set of rules,” Rizzi said, “so I don’t know if knowledge of the rules is a factor. … We’ve invested a lot of time in it.”
The three coordinators most closely associated with the development of the rules are Rizzi, Richard Hightower of the Chicago Bears and John Fassel of the Dallas Cowboys. Their teams rank No. 1, No. 5 and No. 9 in highest opponent return rates, respectively.
IT SEEMS SAFE to project a modest rise in returns during the latter stages of the season, with weather as the most obvious factor. Since 2000, the NFL’s average return rate for Weeks 1 to 10 was 57.2%. From Weeks 11 to 18 this season, it has been 63.4%.
But ESPN also found some expectation that special teams units probably will become more bold and creative as they get more comfortable with the skills needed to execute shorter kicks and block for returns.
Schwartzstein, who is now the “Thursday Night Football” analytics expert for Prime Video, noted the XFL’s first kickoff return for a touchdown in 2020 came near midseason on a reverse, and NFL teams using two returners lends itself to similar innovations.
It’s also clear players will be in a better spot to cover kicks once they master the requisite mechanics and techniques. There have been 43 flags so far on kickoffs, the highest number through four weeks since 2008, when the return rate was much higher at 77%.
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Much of that can be attributed to the league strictly enforcing the rule prohibiting the coverage team from moving until the ball hits the ground, a player or the end zone. The NFL enforced that rule at the behest of special teams coaches, Anderson said, to ensure the integrity of the play.
Speaking hypothetically about the balance of the season, Schwartzstein said: “I’m thinking of different plays that activate that second returner, now that people know the rules and they’re comfortable with it. Not every broadcast is talking about this brand new rule for everybody to look for it. The coaches are doing that same thing.
“Like, ‘Hey, we kind of figured it out.’ You also now know how teams are likely going to cover, and then you can take advantage with your exciting plays. This is [fertile ground] for strategy and fun.”
Said Anderson: “It’s very much a learning process right now.”
People throughout the league believe these factors are likely to lead to only a modest increase in return rates. There is a widespread belief among teams that a rule tweak — most likely an offseason change that would move the touchback from the 30 to the 35 — will be necessary to get a more substantial boost.
Goodell referenced that possibility during his NFL Network appearance Tuesday, noting it “would be a game-changer right away.”
“I think we’ll have to make a few changes on the kickoff that will, I think, lead to a lot more kickoff returns,” he added.
Owners approved the rule for one year only, intentionally forcing a 2025 trigger to reevaluate and enhance the rule as needed.
“A year from now, they may say, ‘OK, you know what? This play, we like where it’s at, [so] let’s make the touchback the 35,'” Rizzi said.
If nothing else, the rule change appears to have staved off concerns the league would eliminate kickoffs altogether.
“From the standpoint of just working to try to make the kickoff return more relevant and bring it back in, so far that’s been successful,” Anderson said.
ESPN’s Sarah Barshop and Katherine Terrell contributed to this report.
