NBA betting: Which favorites, longshots should you bet on for

Eric Moody, ESPNNov 21, 2024, 08:20 AM ET

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The NBA’s Most Improved Player Award sounds attainable for many, but there’s more to it. It’s not about comeback stories; it’s about players having their best season yet. The award highlights those showing major development in a single year.

To be eligible, players must appear in at least 65 games during the 2024-25 season, ensuring the honor goes to someone who’s been consistent, not just a one-hit wonder. It’s about making a consistent impact.

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So who has the best chance to take home the hardware this season?

It helps if we start by breaking down key trends from the past 20 seasons. For starters, scoring carries significant weight, with 24 of the last 25 MIP winners increasing by at least 5.0 PPG. Also, 10 of the past 11 winners averaged 20.0 PPG during their MIP season.

It’s also worth noting that five consecutive winners, and seven of the last eight, made the All-Star team the same year they won MIP. Being on a team projected to make the playoffs helps, as 13 of the last 20 winners came from such teams. Diving deeper, 11 of the 20 MIP winners played for teams that won more games than the previous season.

While this used to be an award dominated by second-year players, 12 of the last 16 winners were in their third or fourth year.

Top contenders

Jalen Williams, PF/SF/C, Oklahoma City Thunder (+450)

Williams is making a strong case for Most Improved Player this season with significant growth across the board — PPG, RPG, APG, SPG and BPG. With Chet Holmgren sidelined due to injury, Williams’ role has expanded even further. His versatility stands out, as he’s not just a power forward or small forward but has also started at center. He’s an elite defender and is also averaging 32.3 MPG. Expect the third-year player to continue filling up the box score.

What’s working in his favor: Williams is a key piece on a playoff-contending team, and with Holmgren out, he’s now Oklahoma City’s second-best player behind MVP hopeful Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Earning an All-Star spot would strengthen Williams’ MIP bid.

What’s working against him: Williams finished fourth in MIP voting last year, so he’ll need to improve on his current averages of 19.1 PPG, 4.0 RPG and 4.5 APG to stay in the race. That’s how fierce the competition is this season.

Jalen Johnson, PF, Atlanta Hawks (+650)

Johnson has been one of the best young players in the league. After averaging just 5.6 PPG and 4.0 RPG in 2022-23, he followed it up with 16.0 PPG and 8.7 RPG last season, but injuries limited him to 56 games, making him ineligible for MIP. This year, Johnson has been a force, averaging 19.4 PPG, 10.0 RPG, 5.4 APG, 1.4 SPG and 1.1 BPG in 36.6 MPG. Those numbers mark significant improvements from previous seasons.

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What’s working in his favor: Johnson’s all-around stats put him on track to join an exclusive club. Only five players — Oscar Robertson, Nikola Jokic, Kevin Garnett, Domantas Sabonis and Sidney Wicks — have averaged 18+ points, 10+ rebounds and 5+ assists in a single season. Despite playing for a rebuilding Hawks team, hitting those marks could give him the edge for MIP.

What’s working against him: Hawks teammateDyson Daniels is making a case for MIP with strong defensive stats (3.4 SPG, 1.1 BPG) even if his other per game averages (14.9 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 3.1 APG) aren’t as flashy. If he maintains 4.5 stocks per game, he could surpass Michael Jordan’s historic 1988 season where he averaged a higher per game average. This could split MIP votes between Daniels’ defense and Johnson’s offensive improvement.

Franz Wagner, SF/PF, Orlando Magic (+850)

Wagner is making waves as one of the NBA’s most versatile players. He just recorded his fourth straight game with 25+ points — a career-best streak. It was also Wagner’s 13th career game with 25 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists. Offensively skilled and defensively sharp, Orlando’s defensive rating is better with him on the floor. The only other team with a better defensive rating than Orlando is Oklahoma City. Wagner’s per game averages improve year by year, making him a prime contender for this award.

What’s working in his favor: Paolo Banchero‘s absence due to a torn right oblique has provided Wagner with an opportunity to showcase his basketball IQ and playmaking ability. His MPG has also increased significantly with Banchero out.

What’s working against him: Banchero’s return will reduce Wagner’s usage, and while he can still thrive it won’t be as easy to get the numbers necessary to beat out the others in this hotly contested race.

Long shots to consider

RJ Barrett, SG/SF/PF, Toronto Raptors (+1500)

Barrett has been a different player since joining the Raptors. He’s averaging 23.2 PPG, 6.4 RPG and 6.5 APG this season — nearly identical numbers to his 32-game stint with Toronto last year following the trade from New York. He’s attacking the basket, creating in the paint and finishing at the rim with efficiency. With Scottie Barnes and Immanuel Quickley out, the Raptors needed Barrett to take on a bigger role, and he’s delivered in a big way, keeping defenses on their heels.

What’s working in his favor: The absence of Barnes and Quickley has boosted his role, giving him a massive usage rate.

What’s working against him: When Barnes and Quickley eventually return, it’s going to eat into Barrett’s production.

Cade Cunningham, PG, Detroit Pistons (+1600)

Cunningham is on pace to set career highs in numerous categories. Nic Antaya/Getty Images

Cunningham is leading the Pistons’ surprising start this season. He’s been electric during the past 10 games, averaging 21.8 PPG, 8.2 RPG and 9.4 APG, with four triple-doubles in that span. He also joined elite company, becoming just the sixth player in NBA history to notch 3,000 points, 900 assists and 150 steals in their first 150 games. Cunningham’s versatility and leadership are turning heads and keeping Detroit in the mix.

What’s working in his favor: His 32.4% usage rate shows he’s a key contributor. He’s playing unselfishly, finding open teammates when doubled, and could make the All-Star leap.

What’s working against him: It boils down to health. Last year, his averages were strong, but he played just 62 games — below the 65-game minimum for NBA awards. His career high is 64 games as a rookie.

Norman Powell, SG/SF, Los Angeles Clippers (+1600)

Powell has shattered expectations this season. With Kawhi Leonard out and James Harden focused on playmaking, Powell has stepped up as the Clippers’ leading scorer. He’s putting up 23.3 PPG in 33.5 MPG and shooting 49% from the floor with a 25.8% usage rate. Powell has embraced the chance for a bigger role following Paul George‘s departure to Philadelphia. He wanted to start at shooting guard — and he’s proving why, thriving in the spotlight.

What’s working in his favor: Leonard’s absence due to knee recovery has given him a clear runway to produce. Even when Leonard returns, load management will likely keep opportunities open for Powell.

What’s working against him: Age. If Powell wins the Most Improved Player award at 31, he’d be the oldest in NBA history to do it, breaking Darrell Armstrong’s record at 30. It’s a unique storyline, but voters may lean toward younger players with more years ahead.

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