Sep 30, 2024, 01:00 PM ET
Week 5 of the 2024 NFL season features an intriguing NFC South matchup to kick off the slate and the start of the NFL international series in London. The red-hot Tampa Bay Buccaneers, led by Baker Mayfield, kick things off Thursday night against Kirk Cousins and the Atlanta Falcons.
Things heat up on Sunday morning as Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets face an old friend in Sam Darnold and the undefeated Minnesota Vikings. The Dallas Cowboys travel to Pittsburgh to take on Justin Fields and the Steelers on Sunday night, and the “Monday Night Football” matchup features Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs welcoming Derek Carr and the New Orleans Saints to GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN).
Our betting analysts take an early look at Week 5 lines to find some value before things move closer to the games.
Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET
Joe Fortenbaugh’s first bet: Minnesota Vikings -2.5 (-115) vs. New York Jets
(Last week: Dallas -4 against NYG. Line closed at -5.5, Dallas won 20-15)
Three is the most key point spread in NFL betting because more final scores end with a differential of “3” than any other differential (approximately 14%). Given Minnesota’s white-hot start coupled with a hobbled Aaron Rodgers and anemic Jets offense, I want to lock in Vikings -2.5 before the worldwide market moves to the aforementioned key number of 3, just like we’ve seen several sportsbooks already do. New York is improved this season, but their coaching leaves a lot to be desired. Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores squaring off against Jets offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett is our edge in this one.
Tyler Fulghum’s first bet: Los Angeles Rams OVER 6.5 wins (-110)
(No pick last week)
Before the season started this number was 8.5 and the over was one of the more popular plays in the market. The Rams, however, have started the season 1-3. Is it because we were wrong about this team? Maybe. Is it because of a rash of cluster injuries to the offense? More likely.
Luckily for the Rams, none of those injuries are season-ending. WR Puka Nacua, WR Cooper Kupp, OL Steve Avila, OL Jonah Jackson, and CB Darious Williams (all starters) should return at some point off the IR. Luckily for the Rams they have a Week 6 bye which they’ll desperately need. Sean McVay is a coach you trust to get the most out of his team no matter the circumstances. Don’t forget, just a season ago, the Rams were 3-6 before sprinting to the playoffs with a 7-1 finish. Buy the 2024 dip now.
Anita Marks’ first bet: Washington Commanders (-3) (-125) vs. Cleveland Browns
(Last week: Steelers-Colts under 40. Line closed at 40.5. Final score was 27-21 Colts.)
Jayden Daniels is the real deal, leading his offense to a total of 80 points his last two starts, and setting the NFL on fire. Daniels has a record-setting 80% completion percentage, close to 900 passing yards, over 200 rushing yards, and seven total TDs. After years of mediocre QB play, Washington has finally found its commander, and the Browns might consider benching DeShaun Watson if he continues to struggle.
Ben Solak’s first bet: New Orleans Saints (+5) at Kansas City Chiefs
(Last week: Bengals-Panthers over 44.5. Closed at 46.5. Bengals won 34-24)
Without Rashee Rice, Hollywood Brown, and Isiah Pacheco, there just isn’t a weapon on the Chiefs’ offense that scares me (save for one or two Xavier Worthy plays a game). The Saints have lost back-to-back games, but had win percentages over 80% in the fourth quarter of both games. New Orleans should be motivated to get a win, and catching a Chiefs team that is 4-0 but has yet to win by more than a touchdown this season. I’m confident the Saints can get within five points.
Seth Walder’s first bet: Washington Commanders to win NFC East (+300)
(Last week: Colts ML (+105) against the Steelers. Line closed at Colts +125. Colts won 27-24.)
The first market I went to after the 4 p.m. games concluded Sunday was odds to win the NFC East. Not because I necessarily thought I’d be recommending this bet, but because I wanted to see how close they were. It turns out that it is not as close as I thought.
Washington has a real one at quarterback in Daniels. He led Week 4 in QBR (89.5) entering the Sunday night game and ranks fourth in QBR this season. There are no perfect teams in the NFC East. But now that the Commanders have a quarterback, why not take a chance on them at least at 3-1 odds?
Andre Snellings’ first bet: Minnesota Vikings to win the NFC North (+105)
(Last week: Texans -4.5 against the Jaguars. Line closed at -5.5. Texans won 24-20.)
Two NFC teams have thoroughly convinced me that they are for real, playing well above expectation: the Vikings and the Commanders. Seth has already touched on the Commanders, so let’s highlight Vikings, the most impressive team through the first quarter of the season.
Minnesota isn’t just winning; the team is winning convincingly against a tough schedule. The Vikings are tied for the highest scoring margin differential in the NFL (+57), with wins over the three teams in the San Francisco 49ers, Houston Texans and Green Bay Packers that are a combined 7-2 against everyone else. The Vikings’ cover margin through four games is +15.9, the highest mark for a team to start 4-0 outright since the 2007 Patriots (+16.5). Minnesota is strong on both sides of the ball, and right now look like the class of a strong NFC North.
Pam Maldonado’s first bet: Navy Midshipmen at Air Force Falcons OVER 36 points
Navy’s offense has been significantly more potent than Air Force’s, averaging 45 points per game. And it’s coming from a balanced attack. The Midshipmen rank second in yards per rush attempt (behind only Boise State Broncos) and lead the FBS in yards per pass attempt with quarterback Blake Horvath. Navy’s ability to mix in effective passes could keep the Air Force defense on its heels. The Falcons have been highly vulnerable on that side of the ball, giving up 383 yards per game. With a low total of 36, the Midshipmen can likely score 30 points on their own against this defense.
