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Victoria Matiash, Fantasy HockeySep 9, 2024, 09:00 AM ET
- ESPN.com Fantasy Contributor since 2010
- Part-time anchor at NEWSTALK1010
Here we go again! For fantasy hockey enthusiasts, we’re on the cusp of the most wonderful time of the year. Whether you’re looking to repeat as league champion, or hoping for a much better result after a less-successful run in 2023-24, the clean slate provided by a new campaign provides the same fresh start for everyone.
And we’d love more company! Those toying with the idea of playing fantasy hockey for the first time are wholly encouraged to find out what all the entertaining fuss is about. The game certainly is straightforward enough. As with countless challenges in life, it’s the diligent mastering of the simplest of rules that eventually leads to triumph. It’s also a lot of fun.
So whether you’re a wily veteran manager or fresh-faced newbie, allow us to help you get the best possible start to your season. Beginning with the initial opportunity to construct your roster from the foundation up.
Jump ahead: Bounce-back and breakout candidates | Regression | Goalies | Defensemen | Categories | Mock drafts | Leagues types | Building a dynasty | Roster maintenance | Injured reserve | Trading
The draft
Without question, this is the most important two to three hours of your entire fantasy hockey season. The best advice is to be prepared. While there’s always luck involved — players get hurt, lineups are unpredictably shuffled — fortune still favors the ready. Perusing all of our upcoming preseason fantasy content will only help in that regard.
Beyond that essential research, another tip: Draft the best player available to start.
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In ESPN’s standard points re-draft leagues, that’s Nathan MacKinnon, Auston Matthews, Connor McDavid, and Nikita Kucherov, with Leon Draisaitl – freshly signed to earn the largest salary in the NHL – and David Pastrnak serving as the next best options. Those stars are tried, tested, and true.
Follow up by grabbing an elite defender — a tiny list led by Cale Makar — or second-tier star forward. Minnesota’s Kirill Kaprizov and Toronto’s William Nylander present as such attractive options. Just channel your inner (former GM) Brian Burke and take the very best player up for grabs. There will be plenty of opportunities to snatch some valuable sleepers and/or fill positional voids later.
Unless there’s some erratic early run on goalies, hold off on filling your net until the elite performers up front are taken. Then grab a good one, that plays a lot, for a better-than-average team. By all means select the best netminder on offer, but don’t kick yourself if another manager beats you to Connor Hellebuyck or Andrei Vasilevskiy. The sixth-best fantasy netminder in ESPN Fantasy standard leagues in 2023-24 – Edmonton’s Stuart Skinner – was still widely available as a free agent halfway through the season. A standout defender a notch below Makar also presents as a nice acquisition once the very best forwards are spoken for. More on those two positions below.
Once your superstars and top-tier goalie are in place, it’s time to pay greater attention to positional and categorical needs. Loading up on delectable skaters of one variety while disregarding others can (probably will) eventually backfire. Packing your roster with too many appealing centers at the expense of wingers restrains your flexibility in shifting skaters in and out of your lineup. Guaranteed, a good number of those quality centers will spend too much time on your bench. All the more reason to give skaters who are eligible at multiple forward positions an extra look. Of course, if your league adheres to the simpler (F) classification, obviously draft the best players on hand.
Again, there’s no emphasizing enough the advantage garnered by mining our preseason pieces in the days leading up to puck drop. Team and position previews, plus all other content – sleepers & busts, category specialists, schedule hacks etc. – can go a long way in offering you significant advantage ahead of your draft and beyond.
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Leon Draisaitl’s NHL stats that led to his contract extension with Oilers
Check out the top numbers from Leon Draisaitl’s NHL career that led to his eight-year contract extension with the Edmonton Oilers.
Bounce-back and breakout candidates
Once your proven elite and secondary high-quality performers are lassoed in, it’s occasion to take a run on “sleeper” candidates. Securing players who manage to exceed expectations can go a long way in bridging the fantasy gap between eventually settling mid-league and winning it all. After stringing together two 40-point campaigns in his first full two turns with the Edmonton Oilers, defender Evan Bouchard erupted for 18 goals and 64 assists in 2023-24. An appreciable jump for a young defender clearly ready to take the next great leap.
Beyond maturation, adaptability to the pro game, and plain ol’ improvement in skill/fitness, under the right circumstances a change in scenery can inspire a career-best performance. After seven years in Boston, forward Jake DeBrusk could very well find himself on a scoring line with center Elias Pettersson. If so, you can almost bank on getting a significant jump in production out of a winger who has shown 70-point promise yet fallen short thus far. Savvy managers will want to keep a close view of how Pettersson and DeBrusk gel – or not – in training camp.
The “R” word
Conversely, every season some players are going to regress. Whether due to age, nagging physical ailment, or a diminished role with a different/same team, more than a handful won’t equal their output from earlier. Projecting who is poised to tumble down that hill is extremely useful when assembling a fantasy roster.
Remember how Penguin neophyte Erik Karlsson saw his 2023-24 points-total tumble to nearly half from the whopping 101 earned as the Sharks’ big blue-line fish the previous season?
An extreme case, but illustrates the point. Do we believe Frank Vatrano has a second-straight 37-goal campaign after never nearing that mark before in his career? Then there’s Florida’s Sam Reinhart and his unicorn goal-scoring season. Forty? Maybe. But another 57 is a mammoth-sized ask. This isn’t to suggest you should avoid drafting Vatrano, or Reinhart, or any other character forecast to backslide a bit. Just modify your expectations and don’t reach.
More on goalies
In ESPN Fantasy Hockey, you get credit for every save and win that Jeremy Swayman records. Melissa Tamez/Icon Sportswire
It’s almost unfair how much fantasy weight is put on so few individuals, in saddling them with the responsibility of carrying several categories. But, not unlike in the real-life game itself, consistent play between the pipes is essential to success. In conventional H2H leagues where three to four goalies sit in rotation, at least one standout performer, we’re asking for 60 or so games – Hellebuyck, Shesterkin, Vasilevskiy, Juuse Saros etc. – should be included on your roster, along with a solid second-tier fantasy netminder.
Boston’s Jeremy Swayman – now that former tandem partner Linus Ullmark isn’t breathing down his neck – presents as such. New Bruins netminder Joonas Korpisalo doesn’t project to eat nearly as much into Swayman’s playing time, but we’ll see.
As does ex-Flame Jacob Markstrom behind a much-improved defense in New Jersey. Once your own top duo is sorted, invest in real-life quality tandem goalies and/or appealing sleeper candidates. Fresh from posting some career numbers in Florida – in limited play, mind you – new Maple Leaf Anthony Stolarz might check both those boxes.
Not to belabor the point, but this position can’t be overlooked with so few choices responsible for putting up valuable numbers often through a substantial string of fantasy categories. Another reason to give our dedicated upcoming goalie preview a good gander.
A deeper dive on d-men
League size, along with the forward-heaviness of your roster, carries influence in how you should draft defenders. Count ’em up. If your daily or weekly lineup requires more than twice as many totalled C, LW, and RW as defensemen, concentrate more on your skaters up front. As the kids say, let your fantasy heavy hitters cook.
No question you want one blue-line star — like Makar or Roman Josi or Adam Fox — but in leagues that reward blocked shots, such as ESPN’s standard, there are other useful figures who don’t necessarily put up the sexiest production numbers. A shot-blocking machine, Philadelphia’s Nick Seeler averaged 2.0 fantasy points/game this past season. Seeler was there for the grabbing in the overwhelming majority of ESPN Fantasy leagues all campaign long.
Similarly to previous years, nearly 70 regular defenders averaged 1.7 points or more in 2023-24. Useful characters with which to pad your roster, if necessary, when ensuring your forward corps is as potent as possible.
Categories matter
You can draft Sidney Crosby or Quinn Hughes to your fantasy hockey roster. Maybe even both! Bob Frid-USA TODAY Sports
They matter a lot. Familiarizing yourself with your own league’s categories, weighing whether stats count for their straight-up value or for points, and how many, will help in revising your rankings accordingly. Don’t sacrifice scoring numbers to pick up a more physical player if hits are only worth 0.1 points. Near-equals in ESPN’s default game, Auston Matthews and Nikita Kucherov no longer sit on the same fantasy plane in competition where goals are worth twice as much as assists.
In leagues that still compensate penalty minutes, Senators captain Brady Tkachuk spikes up the rankings. A defenseman like Brayden McNabb of the Golden Knights carries much more fantasy weight when blocked shots matter. Do faceoff wins count? Consider Sidney Crosby, no fantasy slouch by any measuring stick, in even higher estimation.
As usual, a little research goes a long way. Our upcoming preseason in-depth look into individual categories is designed to help you maximize value across the board.
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Investing stock in mock drafts
While there’s no need to strive for the mythologically perfect fantasy roster, practice does indeed make for much better prepared. Participating in mock drafts with other invested managers offers precious insight into what to expect when the real deal goes down. There’s no better way to make ready for unexpected trends, such as a bizarre early run on goalies as discussed, than to experience it first-hand, in real time.
The exposure to red and green flags is another prized takeaway. If other like minded, all-in managers are avoiding a certain prominent player, perhaps look into why. Or, if all is truly well, recognize that you can wait until later rounds to select that preferred, under-radar flier of yours. Plus, in addition to the insight learned, mock drafts are a good time. Light, fun rehearsals before the big show.
There are options in our Mock Draft Lobby for any league scoring setup and number of players.
Leagues, leagues, leagues
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While H2H points leagues reign as most popular within the ESPN Fantasy kingdom, there are other options. Some of us remain big fans of Rotisserie (Roto) competition, in which scoring is determined by league rank across every scoring category. H2H category leagues, in which you play an opponent head-to-head and the winner of the most categories wins the matchup, also have a dedicated following.
Do you want the freedom to amend your lineup every day, every week, or thrive/languish by the set-and-forget approach? Scope out our league settings and find the one that works for you the best.
Building a dynasty
Dynasty and keeper competition requires more foresight and patience. Particularly if your squad is in rebuild mode, and not on the cusp of punching through to victory.
With a view to seasons well beyond the current, dynasty managers aren’t singularly focussed on what an NHL newcomer might accomplish in year one (although there will be few complaints about a blockbuster debut). This marathon-style of fantasy competition is indeed no sprint. The larger issue isn’t if No. 1 draft selection Macklin Celebrini scores 80-plus points in his first tour with the Sharks. But if he ever does, and consistently.
Keeper leagues are different in that more players are tossed back in the draft pool each season. While you’ll always leave your core of elite performers be, selecting an effective aging player could be the smart call, if in position to win in the foreseeable future. Otherwise, best stick with the greatest available talent on the younger side and, again, like a manager assembling/tweaking a team in the NHL, practice some patience.
Roster maintenance
Herein lies the fun. Once you’ve drafted a team that requires daily or weekly maintenance, keeping on top of matters is fundamental. The waiver wire can serve as a bonafide treasure chest, especially early on in the season. Keeping track of who’s accomplishing what, and in which role, is paramount in keeping an edge on your managerial competitors. Shuffling in the out-of-wood-work surprises for perceived duds is the most effective way to make amends for a less than spectacular draft. Many a successful manager will tell you how their championship team looked a fair bit different to finish than at season’s launch.
Beyond personal performance and health, how a player is utilized is paramount to fantasy success. Some fortunate forward – Tommy Novak? Luke Evangelista? – is likely going to fall onto a scoring line with Nashville imports Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault. If they can keep a secure grip on that gig, someone that should undoubtedly attract attention in deeper fantasy leagues.
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Scanning the waiver wire on the regular is key. Without resorting to making panic-driven moves, and maintaining a little foresight, don’t hesitate to make improvements at any position, when possible. All the while keeping in mind the maximum number of transactions allowed throughout the season and, if applicable, your Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB). You don’t want to tie your hands by blowing it all before that dark-horse star inevitably emerges in late January.
A word on injured reserve
Fill those slots. Even before the season starts. That tiny red IR badge scares too many a manager away, when good-to-excellent numbers lie on the fantasy horizon. Out since raising the Cup in June 2022, Gabriel Landeskog is set to return as early as October/November. Darn right you should stash him away on injured reserve in leagues of a more reasonable size. Especially if he tumbles into later rounds of your draft. The Avalanche captain harbors proven point/game potential. Same philosophy applies throughout the season. You can always jettison these figures later, when healthy, if that’s the smarter move.
The art of trades
Don’t be intimidated by them. The “better-the-devil-you-know” cushion, while seemingly comfortable, could be depriving you of making serious positional improvements. Especially if your waiver wire isn’t bursting with attractive options.
Like in the real-life game, the best deal benefits both sides. Think former Kings forward Pierre-Luc Dubois to the Capitals for goalie Darcy Kuemper. Los Angeles responds to a weakness in net, while Washington puts itself in position to, perhaps, find a new ideal center for Alex Ovechkin (no offense to Dylan Strome). And maybe even get the best yet out of the 26-year-old ex-King/Jet/Blue Jacket. Don’t sweat relinquishing a solid-enough performer, especially when expendable, to one other manager. Your goal is to beat the entire field. Building the strongest possible roster is key to reaching that ultimate goal.
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