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Sean Allen, Special to ESPN.comDec 10, 2024, 01:30 PM ET
- Sean Allen is a fantasy analyst for ESPN.com. He was the 2008 and 2009 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Hockey Writer of the Year. You can tweet him @seanard.
A successful power play needs to put pucks on net. And it needs to do it a lot.
If we take the past 10 games for every team, there are 75 different power-play units that have spent at least five minutes on the advantage together. The success of those units ranges from nine goals by the Carolina Hurricanes top unit in 23:00, all the way down to zero shots on goal in 6:32 for the Montreal Canadiens unit before Patrik Laine and Lane Hutson took over roles.
But how many shots or shot attempts does a power-play unit need to generate and can small personnel changes make a big difference?
The average number of shot attempts per two minutes (SAP2) for these 75 units is 3.96. This includes shots, missed shots, shots that are blocked and goals. Basically, it’s a metric of all the shots the unit attempts to drive at the net normalized to two minutes because that’s how long a minor penalty can last. The 42 power-play units exceeding that threshold of SAP2 have accounted for 91 goals across their past 10 games (0.37 per two minutes), while the units below that SAP2 average have scored 42 goals (0.24 per two minutes).
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It’s a similar number for successful shots on goal. The average is 1.85 per two minutes. The 39 units exceeding that account for 87 goals (0.37 per two minutes) and the 36 units below that have 46 goals (0.25 per two minutes).
So, generally speaking, we want power-play units that are attempting to put a puck on the net at least four times every two minutes, with about two of those attempts forcing the goaltender to make a save.
That’s a good baseline to start looking deeper at the units.
Power-play notes
Brad Marchand, Elias Lindholm, David Pastrnak, Pavel Zacha, Charlie McAvoy: 32:37 in past 10 games played, shots: 33 (2.02 per 2:00), SAP: 66 (4.05 per 2:00), goals: 1
Even though they are meeting the established thresholds, the Bruins need to make a change on this unit. And remember that those thresholds of 4.0 SAP2 and 2.0 shots per two minutes are the bare minimum. The coaching change didn’t perk this unit up, as their shots per two minutes and SAP2 are even lower during the past three games. They should summon Vinni Lettieri from the AHL (21 points in 23 games with four power-play goals) for some fresh blood.
Jason Zucker, Tage Thompson, Dylan Cozens, JJ Peterka, Rasmus Dahlin: 11:27 in past 10 GP, shots: 8 (1.40 per 2:00), SAP: 17 (2.97 per 2:00), goals: 0
Injuries have limited the time this top five has spent together in the past 10, and Dahlin is out at the moment. Which is actually the interesting point here: The units with Owen Power on the point while Dahlin has been out have been doing better at getting pucks on net. Swapping in Power for Dahlin and Alex Tuch for Peterka, the unit has 4.54 SAP2 and 2.27 shots per two minutes. Power remains available in 51.5% of leagues.
Sebastian Aho, Martin Necas, Andrei Svechnikov, Seth Jarvis, Shayne Gostisbehere: 23:00 in past 10 GP, shots: 21 (1.83 per 2:00), SAP: 48 (4.17 per 2:00), goals: 9
No notes; Just showcasing the class of the league.
Artturi Lehkonen, Nathan MacKinnon, Valeri Nichushkin, Mikko Rantanen, Cale Makar: 10:43 in past 10 GP, shots: 6 (1.12 per 2:00), SAP: 18 (3.36 per 2:00), goals: 1
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The Avs have replaced Casey Mittelstadt on this top unit with Lehkonen, but the story may not be over just yet, as the unit with Mittelstadt posted superior shot metrics in 11:47 during the past 10 games. Ross Colton further complicates the plans here, as he returns from an injury that occurred when he was literally leading the league in power-play goals on Oct. 28. He’s been on the second unit in his first games back, but that could change.
Jamie Benn, Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson, Wyatt Johnston, Miro Heiskanen: 17:58 in past 10 GP, shots: 20 (2.23 per 2:00), SAP: 42 (4.68 per 2:00), goals: 2
This top Stars unit is starting to come on strong after a very slow start. There may be hope yet for Benn if the group can find it’s form from last season.
Patrick Kane, Dylan Larkin, Alex DeBrincat, Lucas Raymond, Moritz Seider: 8:59 in past 10 GP, shots: 7 (1.56 per 2:00), SAP: 12 (2.67 per 2:00), goals: 0
Kane was back on the top unit on Monday for the first time since missing five games, but maybe the Wings should go back to Michael Rasmussen on the top unit. When he was there in place of Kane, the unit posted 3.86 SAP2 across 17:38 with one goal.
Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard: 16:34 in past 10 GP, shots: 17 (2.05 per 2:00), SAP: 34 (4.10 per 2:00), goals: 4
Hyman looks refreshed after missing some time with injury. He has a power-play goal (and three goals overall) in two games back. He’s been dropped in a few leagues and is available in 12.8% at the moment.
Carter Verhaeghe, Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart, Matthew Tkachuk, Aaron Ekblad: 14:24 in past 10 GP, shots: 26 (3.61 per 2:00), SAP: 48 (6.67 per 2:00), goals: 6
Here is your league-leading unit in SAP2. Ekblad is the one to target in fantasy, as he remains available in 60.1% of leagues.
Anze Kopitar, Kevin Fiala, Adrian Kempe, Quinton Byfield, Alex Laferriere: 14:22 in past 10 GP, shots: 9 (1.25 per 2:00), SAP: 29 (4.04 per 2:00), goals: 2
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The Kings have gotten away from this five-forward unit in recent games, putting Jordan Spence and Brandt Clarke back on the point in favor of Laferriere. They may want to go back to it, because no other unit on the team has posted better than 2.90 SAP2 across the past 10 games.
Patrik Laine, Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, Juraj Slafkovsky, Lane Hutson: 8:06 in past 10 GP, shots: 12 (2.96 per 2:00), SAP: 21 (5.19 per 2:00), goals: 3
Laine and Hutson are breathing new life in a power play that had gone stale with Kirby Dach and Mike Matheson in their place (again, zero shots and only 1.53 SAP2 in 6:32). Both Laine (available in 40.0%) and Hutson (available in 59.5%) are good targets in free agency.
Stefan Noesen, Jesper Bratt, Nico Hischier, Jack Hughes, Dougie Hamilton: 32:45 in past 10 GP, shots: 52 (3.18 per 2 mins), SAP: 99 (6.05 per 2 mins), goals: 8
Again, no notes here. This is a dominant power play that knows what it wants to do: Get pucks on net and have Noesen battle for the rebounds. He is somehow still available in 42.6% of leagues.
Kevin Hayes, Michael Bunting, Philip Tomasino, Kris Letang, Matt Grzelcyk: 8:25 in past 10 GP, shots: 14 (3.33 per 2:00), SAP: 25 (5.94 per 2:00), goals: 3
Not the power-play unit you expected to see listed, is it? All three of their goals came in one explosive game against the Calgary Flames, but the SAP2 numbers go beyond that outing. It will be interesting to see the group back together once Tomasino returns from injury.
John Tavares, William Nylander, Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews, Matthew Knies: 9:50 in past 10 GP, shots: 11 (2.24 per 2:00), SAP: 20 (4.07 per 2:00), goals: 2
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We can forgive the low SAP2 generation for this five-forward unit based on the efficient return on their two tallies in less than 10 minutes of action. Knies should be prioritized for fantasy rosters, as he is available in 58.8% of leagues.
Nick Schmaltz, Clayton Keller, Dylan Guenther, Logan Cooley, Mikhail Sergachev: 21:14 in past 10 GP, shots: 16 (1.51 per 2:00), SAP: 41 (3.86 per 2:00), goals: 5
This group defies the trend of requiring frequent pucks on net for success. Despite falling below average in both SAP2 and shots per two minutes, they have managed to score five goals across the past 10 games.
Mark Stone, Tomas Hertl, Victor Olofsson, Jack Eichel, Shea Theodore: 5:09 in past 10 GP, shots: 5 (1.94 per 2 mins), SAP: 9 (3.50 per 2 mins), goals: 2
It looks like the Pavel Dorofeyev run on the top unit may have come to an end. Olofsson was elevated to the top unit, coinciding with Stone’s return on Friday, and the result was two power-play tallies. Olofsson started the season strong in this power-play role but lost it during an injury absence. It looks like he’s back on the fantasy menu (available in 96.1%).
Tom Wilson, Dylan Strome, Connor McMichael, John Carlson, Jakob Chychrun: 24:30 in past 10 GP, shots: 31 (2.53 per 2 mins), SAP: 56 (4.57 per 2 mins), goals: 5
Alex who? I kid, I kid. But this unit has been killing it with Alex Ovechkin sidelined, and it will be a tough decision to demote Chychrun from the top unit when Ovie returns.
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Goalie notes
Colorado Avalanche in 20 games (five last week):
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Scott Wedgewood (crease share season/week: 59.7%/69.8%, fantasy points season/week: 18.4/18.4, 93.2% available)
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Mackenzie Blackwood (crease share season/week: 58.9%/88.9% with Sharks, fantasy points season/week: 29.4/9.2, 81.6% available)
Obviously, the Avalanche looked at the 2020-21 New Jersey Devils that missed the playoff bubble and said, “That. Let’s go with that tandem.” That’s an easy joke to make, but the truth is that was a long time ago in NHL goaltender terms. Wedgewood is now a veteran backup and Blackwood rebuilt his profile as a potential starter behind some terrible Sharks teams, especially last season. When this tandem was last together in New Jersey, Blackwood held down a 62.3% crease share, while Wedgewood got 26.5%. That is a reasonable expectation for how the Avs likely want the split, but note that Wedgewood has had a tremendous start and may keep this closer to 50-50 until he falters.
Both goalies are now on the radar for any fantasy league size, with Blackwood worthy of burning your waiver status to acquire if need be. But I’d also stash Wedgewood based on his early returns with Colorado.
Detroit Red Wings in 28 games (five last week):
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Cam Talbot (crease share season/week: 48.3%/DNP, fantasy points season/week: 34.2/DNP, 46.0% available)
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Alex Lyon (crease share season/week: 29.9%/DNP, fantasy points season/week: 20.0/DNP, 95.4% available)
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Ville Husso (crease share season/week: 19.1%/81.5%, fantasy points season/week: -11.2/-1.2, 97.3% available)
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Sebastian Cossa (crease share season/week: 2.7%/18.5%, fantasy points season/week: 2.4/2.4, 99.7% available)
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Talbot is getting close to a return, but we got a taste of Cossa in relief of Husso on Monday. In his NHL debut, he managed to stay strong for a Red Wings comeback victory. While his time isn’t here yet, it’s coming soon. Maybe even later this season if the Red Wings are forced to be sellers at the deadline.
Los Angeles Kings in 27 games (two last week):
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David Rittich (crease share season/week: 54.6%/50.0%, fantasy points season/week: 27.0/5.2, 92.4% available)
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Darcy Kuemper (crease share season/week: 40.0%/50.0%, fantasy points season/week: 22.8/6.4, 86.7% available)
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Erik Portillo (crease share season/week: 3.6%/DNP, fantasy points season/week: 7.6/DNP, 99.9% available)
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Pheonix Copley (crease share season/week: 1.7%/DNP, fantasy points season/week: -2.0/DNP, 99.9% available)
While Kuemper had an impressive return to action, holding off the Wild, Rittich made some serious in-roads on the crease share while Kuemper was out. We could be looking at closer to a 50-50 split for the medium-term, which puts a dent in some of the fantasy value here.
Montreal Canadiens in 28 games (four last week):
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Sam Montembeault (crease share season/week: 69.5%/100.0%, fantasy points season/week: 43.8/24.4, 68.5% available)
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Cayden Primeau (crease share season/week: 30.5%/DNP, fantasy points season/week: -26.0/DNP, 99.7% available)
While Montembeault looks like a fantasy starter, it’s only true if you leave him in your lineup and never touch him. Ever. In his 18 starts that didn’t result in a shutout, he has accumulated a total of -3.4 fantasy points. In his three exceptional, shutout performances, he has 42.4 fantasy points. There is no middle ground here.
Toronto Maple Leafs in 27 games (four last week):
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Anthony Stolarz (crease share season/week: 55.5%/50.1%, fantasy points season/week: 51.0/8.0, 25.7% available)
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Joseph Woll (crease share season/week: 37.2%/49.9%, fantasy points season/week: 36.6/3.2, 43.6% available)
Woll had a moderate stinker against the Penguins on Saturday, but on the whole, this tandem stood up well to a pivotal week. Both made hay while the sun was shining in advantageous matchups against the Predators and Blackhawks, while Stolarz managed to stay in the positives against the most punishing team for fantasy goaltenders (the Capitals).
Droppables
JJ Peterka, RW, Buffalo Sabres (rostered in 64.6% of ESPN leagues): He was in prime position to take on Jeff Skinner‘s top-line role and run with it. In fact, he hasn’t even lost that role yet. It’s just that the Sabres aren’t scoring enough for him to earn fantasy points. He’s no longer a part of the top power-play unit either.
Jonathan Marchessault, RW, Nashville Predators (78.9%): It’s OK to have more than half of your total points come on the power play if — and that’s a big “if” — the power play is pouring in closer to a goal per game. Marchessault has seven of his 13 total points on the advantage, but that’s not a large enough gross total to keep on fantasy rosters.
