Fantasy hockey breakout picks: Four defensemen to draft

Sean Allen, Special to ESPN.comSep 12, 2024, 05:18 PM ET

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What is our target this time? Glad you asked!

We want a defender who is 24 years and 105 days old with about 132 NHL games to their name.

If you haven’t already read the breakout forwards piece, the introduction there will go into more detail about how we are defining and finding players for a potential fantasy breakout. The process for defense is much the same, with a few tweaks based on the statistics. If you want to see our methodology, keep reading on, but if you want to jump ahead to see our top picks, click here.

What makes a breakout candidate

The slope for fantasy production by age among defenders is gentler than it is for forwards. That is to say, they typically take a little longer to reach their fantasy prime and get to spend a little more time there.

Sure enough, when we take the top 60 defensemen in fantasy points from each of the past 15 NHL seasons, the average age is 28 years and 122 days old, which is half a year older than the forwards.

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Using the same exercise as the forwards, if we take all defensemen who debuted in or after the 2009-10 season, are at least 25.7 years old (added a year compared to forwards) and have at least 100 games of NHL experience, we will find the average age and experience for when these players broke onto the fantasy scene.

Same as the forwards, we are using a 30-game rolling average of at least 1.7 fantasy points per game (FPPG) to determine a “breakout” occurred.

The range in this case is broader than it was with the forwards. As with the forwards, there are those players who “broke out” instantly, like Charlie McAvoy, Cale Makar and Zach Werenski. But the other end of the spectrum is more extreme, with Erik Gudbranson bringing up the rear having played 726 NHL games before he had a 30-game rolling average of 1.7 FPPG at almost 32 years old. There were 83 total defenders to use to find the averages.

And that’s how we got the target above: 24 years and 105 days old, and 132 NHL games.

So, same as the forwards, we’ll give leeway of a year for the age (so 25 years and 105 days is the cutoff) and a range of 40 games either side of the average of 132 (so 92 to 172).

The age cutoff brings us a list of 104 defensemen. Off the top, we can take out established fantasy assets, which includes Rasmus Dahlin, Quinn Hughes, Noah Dobson, Evan Bouchard, Moritz Seider, Jake Sanderson, Kaiden Guhle and Brock Faber.

Of the remaining 96, if we apply the games-played filter (between 92 and 172), we are left with 20 defenders.

But, like the forwards, we want to run our 30-game rolling average at them to see if they’ve already eclipsed 1.7 FPPG for a sustained time. That will allow us to further drill down on breakout candidates.

Of the 20, Cam York, Bowen Byram, Owen Power, Mattias Samuelsson, Thomas Harley, Jacob Bernard-Docker and Justin Barron have already managed a 30-game run of 1.7 FPPG .

The breakouts

That leaves us with 13 defensemen to analyze for breakout potential. All of them meet these criteria:

Each defender is younger than 25 years and 105 days old.
They have are below 1.7 FPPG for their career so far.
They have at least 92 games of NHL experience, but fewer than 172.
They have not had a sustained run of 30 games in which they averaged 1.7 FPPG or better.

Here they are, presented in order of FPPG from last season with their age as of Sept 1, 2024, and their NHL experience.

Editor’s Picks

1 Related

Alex Vlasic, D, Chicago Blackhawks (1.39 FPPG, 23.2 years old, 97 games played): He’s already playing top-pairing minutes with Seth Jones, it’s just that the Hawks weren’t good enough for him to earn fantasy value. Perhaps with their new additions up front and an ever-improving Connor Bedard, Vlasic can get those extra stats this season.

Jamie Drysdale, D, Philadelphia Flyers (1.3 FPPG, 22.4 years old, 147 games played): Like the Sabres, the Flyers boast multiple defenders under consideration here, with Cam York being filtered out for already breaking out. Drysdale figures to get at least a little overshadowed by York for the offense still, but if the offense takes a step forward with Matvei Michkov in town, there might be enough to go around for the second pairing.

Kevin Bahl, D, Calgary Flames (1.04 FPPG, 24.2 years old, 148 games played): The return in the Jacob Markstrom trade likely has a top-four D spot lined up for him with the Flames. That means he’ll get enough minutes to make a fantasy mark so long as he keeps earning them. As long as you don’t set expectations too high, Bahl could be serviceable on deeper rosters this season.

Philip Broberg, D, St. Louis Blues (0.71 FPPG, 23.2 years old, 101 games played): Coming to the Blues via offer sheet, Broberg has some yet-to-be-displayed offensive chops to his game that may get coaxed out in his new surroundings. By no means is Justin Faulk irreplaceable on the top power-play unit and the second unit might even be a free-for-all in the preseason between Torey Krug, Scott Perunovich and Broberg for the job.

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Going off the books

Yes, that was only four of the 13 defenders that met all of our criteria. Trouble is, the remaining nine don’t pass the eye test for various reasons, mostly depth-chart related. They are listed below. Before we get there, here are a couple of handpicked breakout defenders that didn’t meet the games-played threshold.

Olen Zellweger, D, Anaheim Ducks (1.38 FPPG, 21.0 years old, 26 games played): Pavel Mintyukov had the longer showcase last season, but Zellweger upstaged him by the end. Depending on how training camp and the preseason go, he may open the season as their power play quarterback.

Simon Edvinsson, D, Detroit Red Wings (1.21 FPPG, 21.6 years old, 25 games played): With minimal ice time and minimal role, Edvinsson dished out 26 hits and blocked 25 shots in 16 games last season. He is the real deal when it comes to physical defenders. He should open on the second pairing and get plenty of ice time to pile up fantasy points.

The probably not breakouts

Unfortunately, nine of our 13 final defenders look like they still face too steep a climb to fantasy glory for the coming campaign.

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Arber Xhekaj, D, Montreal Canadiens (1.27 FPPG, 23.6 years old, 95 games played): He meets all the criteria, but with the established stars combined with the lurking presence of other youngsters (Lane Hutson, David Reinbacher, Logan Mailloux), I’m not sure Xhekaj gets enough ice time to have a fantasy breakout.
Egor Zamula, D, Philadelphia Flyers (1.22 FPPG, 24.4 years old, 92 games played): Like Xhekaj, Zamula also faces a logjam ahead of him on the depth chart. He’s another player that may lack the direct access to the ice time needed to get fantasy value.
Jordan Harris, D, Columbus Blue Jackets (1.19 FPPG, 24.2 years old, 131 games played): Sensing a theme here? Harris, though he is the newcomer, faces a pile of established and promising defenders ahead of him. It’ll be a win if he gets consistent third-pairing minutes.
Calen Addison, D, (free agent) (1.08 FPPG, 24.4 years old, 155 games played): As of Sept. 1, no one has been willing to take a chance on Addison. It’s fair, as there seems to be less room in the league for the power-play specialist defender these days. If he does get signed to a team that can afford the defensive liability to give him minutes to showcase his offense, there is a chance. Just not in leagues that still use plus/minus.
Jordan Spence, D, Los Angeles Kings (1.0 FPPG, 23.5 years old, 109 games played): Although he didn’t meet the exact criteria in this exercise, give me Brandt Clarke over Spence any day of the week.
Tobias Bjornfot, D, Florida Panthers (1.0 FPPG, 23.4 years old, 120 games played)
Nils Lundkvist, D, Dallas Stars (0.89 FPPG, 24.1 years old, 144 games played): Maybe if Thomas Harley’s contract gets pulled into a protracted standoff. But otherwise, Lundkvist won’t get the needed ice time.
Pierre-Olivier Joseph, D, St. Louis Blues (0.84 FPPG, 25.2 years old, 147 games played)
Ty Smith, D, Carolina Hurricanes (AHL last season, 24.4 years old, 123 games played)