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Eric Moody, ESPNSep 30, 2024, 03:04 PM ET
- Former manager at a Fortune 100 financial services company, now living my dream creating fantasy and sports betting content about the NFL, NBA, and WNBA for ESPN.
The NFL is a “next man up” league and, by extension, your fantasy football league is as well. You acquired your team during the draft, but it’s the moves you make as the season unfolds that will ultimately decide if you’re playoff-bound or planning for next season. Every week, we’ll help you identify the players available in more than 50% of ESPN leagues whose value has taken a turn for the better and should be added to your roster as starters or as smart stashes for your bench.
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Injuries continue to wreak havoc across the league. The most notable one from Week 4 is Kansas City Chiefs WR Rashee Rice, who is feared to have torn his right ACL on Sunday against the Los Angeles Chargers. It’s a huge blow for both the Chiefs and fantasy managers alike. Through the first three weeks, Rice led the league with 24 receptions and ranked top two in both yards (288) and targets (32).
Rookie WR Xavier Worthy, who is already rostered in most leagues, scored 13.7 fantasy points Sunday, while veteran TE Travis Kelce also stepped up in Rice’s absence. However, there’s no clear candidate to fill the vacancy Rice leaves behind, making this a tricky rotation to predict.
It will likely be a mix of JuJu Smith-Schuster (rostered in 0.7% of ESPN leagues), Justin Watson, Skyy Moore, and Mecole Hardman. My educated guess on whom to target for fantasy purposes would be Smith-Schuster. He led Chiefs receivers in 2022 with 933 yards on 78 receptions (with three touchdowns), second only to Kelce in those categories.
Now, let’s dive into this week’s waiver wire. We’ll start with a group of wide receivers who can potentially help you manage Rice’s absence.
Mike Williams had a pretty good Week 4. Will he do the same in Week 5? Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
Mike Williams, New York Jets (44.2% rostered): The Jets have slowly ramped up Williams’ usage over the past few weeks as he returns from last year’s ACL injury. He finished with 10.7 fantasy points against the Denver Broncos on Sunday, posting a season-high 5 targets, 4 receptions and 67 receiving yards. Now is a great time to add Williams, but keep in mind he’s primarily playing in 11 personnel. While he’s worth picking up, you might not want to start him against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 5.
Wan’Dale Robinson, New York Giants (27.1%): It’s surprising that Robinson isn’t rostered in more leagues. Daniel Jones relies heavily on both him and Malik Nabers. Robinson has seen eight-plus targets in three out of four games, with two games of 12-plus targets. He has also scored 12-plus fantasy points in three of the four games. He’s firmly on the flex radar against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 5.
Xavier Legette, Carolina Panthers (25.0%): Adam Thielen suffered a hamstring injury in Week 3 against the Las Vegas Raiders and was placed on IR. This gave Legette a chance to get more snaps and targets against the Cincinnati Bengals — and he took full advantage. He caught six of his 10 targets, scoring 19.6 fantasy points. The Panthers’ offense looks to be revitalized with Andy Dalton at quarterback, making Legette is a solid flex option in deeper formats heading into Week 5 against the Chicago Bears.
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Tre Tucker, Las Vegas Raiders (10.2%): Tucker has scored 15-plus fantasy points and seen six-plus targets in two straight games. He has also run the second-most routes on his team over that span. With Davante Adams listed as “week-to-week” due to a hamstring injury, Tucker should continue playing a key role in the Raiders’ passing game and should be rostered. The Raiders face the Broncos in Week 5, and with Jakobi Meyers likely busy against Pat Surtain II, Tucker stands to benefit.
Dontayvion Wicks, Green Bay Packers (9.5%): Christian Watson was ruled out due to a high ankle sprain in the second quarter of Sunday’s game against the Vikings. Wicks immediately stepped in as the starting wide receiver opposite Romeo Doubs (25.2%) and rarely left the field. He finished with 13 targets and 24.8 fantasy points. It’s worth noting that Jayden Reed, who had eight targets and 27.1 fantasy points, primarily plays in three-WR sets. In Week 5, Wicks faces a Los Angeles Rams defense that has given up the third-most WR fantasy points per game. If Watson misses time, Wicks can be viewed as a high-end flex option. If not, Wicks is more of a WR4.
Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts (8.8%): Downs was a breakout candidate this summer, but a preseason injury took the wind out of his sails. He didn’t make his regular-season debut until Week 3, but his 22.2 fantasy points against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 4 showed what he can do, especially with Joe Flacco under center. Downs tied Michael Pittman Jr. for the team lead with nine targets and could have more productive games ahead if Flacco starts while Anthony Richardson recovers from the hip injury he suffered Sunday. Downs is firmly on the flex radar for Week 5 against the Jacksonville Jaguars, whose defense has allowed the eighth-most WR fantasy points.
Quick hits
Tutu Atwell (7.0%) and Jordan Whittington (3.8%), Los Angeles Rams: Atwell led the Rams with 82 receiving yards on four catches against the Bears on Sunday, while Whittington had more receptions (6). Both Atwell and Whittington posted solid fantasy performances, each scoring 12.2 points. I prefer Atwell, who has scored 12-plus fantasy points in two straight games. However, both are worth consideration in deeper formats and should remain involved in the Rams’ passing game until Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua return.
Ray-Ray McCloud III, Atlanta Falcons (3.5%): McCloud should be on your radar in deeper leagues. He has had five-plus targets and 40-plus receiving yards in three of his four games this season. Operating primarily from the slot, he plays in a Falcons offense that frequently runs 11 personnel. Interestingly, he’s the second-most-targeted Atlanta receiver when Kirk Cousins is under pressure. However, the Falcons rank just 22nd in passing attempts per game, which limits his fantasy ceiling.
Quarterbacks
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How Sam Darnold has helped Justin Jefferson in fantasy
Field Yates breaks down how Sam Darnold has improved his and Justin Jefferson’s fantasy output.
Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings (43.6%): Darnold’s renaissance has been breathtaking to watch. He has now scored 19-plus fantasy points in three straight games, yet he’s surprisingly still available in many leagues. Darnold is thriving in head coach Kevin O’Connell’s offensive scheme, with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison as his top two receivers. He also excels under pressure and when blitzed, which is a valuable trait given the significant increase in pressure rates this season. Darnold is on the QB1 radar for Week 5 in London against his former team, the Jets.
Justin Fields, Pittsburgh Steelers (34.0%): Fields had a season-high 31.9 fantasy points against the Colts on Sunday. He became the first player in Steelers history to throw for 300 passing yards, rush for 50 yards and have two rushing scores in a single game. He has now scored 18-plus fantasy points in consecutive games. With the Dallas Cowboys defense dealing with several injuries heading into Week 5, Fields can be seen as a high-end QB2. Dallas gives up the fourth-most QB fantasy points per game, making this a very favorable matchup.
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (33.2% rostered): Lawrence did finish with a season-high 14.7 fantasy points Sunday against the Houston Texans. In Week 5, he faces a Indianapolis Colts defense that has allowed just under 20 fantasy points per game to QBs. This matchup could be a great opportunity for him to turn things around, especially with Brian Thomas Jr., Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis as his top three receivers.
Andy Dalton, Carolina Panthers (8.9%): Dalton’s fantasy performance Sunday against the Bengals yielded only 15.7 points, which wasn’t as impressive as his 24.5 points against the Raiders in Week 3. However, he remains a reliable option for fantasy managers dealing with QB issues, especially in superflex formats. With upcoming matchups against the Bears, Falcons and Commanders, Dalton can be viewed as a low-end QB2 as managers navigate bye weeks.
Joe Flacco, Indianapolis Colts (0.2%): Flacco showed he still has some magic left, scoring 15.0 fantasy points against the Steelers while filling in for Richardson, who injured a hip in the first quarter. It was refreshing to see a Colts quarterback effectively distribute the football. As of now, it’s unclear whether Richardson’s injury is serious, but it might be wise to not rush him back, given his inconsistency. If Flacco starts in Week 5 against a Jaguars defense that allows the second-most QB fantasy points per game, he could land on the QB2 radar.
Running backs
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Bucky Irving’s Week 5 fantasy outlook
Daniel Dopp and Stephania Bell expect Bucky Irving to do well in Week 5 despite injury concerns.
Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (51.7%): I know Irving is rostered in just over 50% of leagues, but he should be your top RB target if he’s still available. Before the Week 4 game against the Eagles, reports said Irving would get more work — and he did. Even with a hamstring issue, he had 11 touches and a season-high 12.5 fantasy points. Rachaad White, who had food poisoning the day before the game, managed 12 touches and 10.4 fantasy points. Go get Irving.
Braelon Allen, New York Jets (45.4%): Allen led the Jets in rushing yards on Sunday against the Broncos. The Jets’ RB committee seems to be tightening up, with Allen finishing the game with nine touches and 5.1 fantasy points, while Breece Hall had 12 touches and just 2.8 points. It’s also worth noting that Allen is getting a higher percentage of early-down snaps, likely to help manage Hall’s workload. Regardless, Allen should be rostered everywhere and holds standalone value. If Hall misses any time, the rookie will immediately be on the RB1 radar.
Rico Dowdle, Dallas Cowboys (43.3%): Dowdle had a season-high 12 touches and 13.1 fantasy points Thursday night against the Giants. He leads the Cowboys backfield in both touches and fantasy points. The main concern is that Dowdle, Ezekiel Elliott and Deuce Vaughn are all getting snaps and touches. That said, with NFL teams averaging 119.7 rushing yards per game (the most through Week 4 this century) and the designed rush rate at 39.8% (the highest since 2010), landing a starting RB off the waiver wire is still a great find.
Editor’s Picks
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Tyler Allgeier, Atlanta Falcons (41.7%): Allgeier finished with 10 touches (for the second time this season) and 10.0 fantasy points against the Saints on Sunday. So far in 2024, he boasts a higher yards per rush and yards after contact per attempt than Bijan Robinson. I’m not saying Allgeier will supplant Robinson in the Falcons’ RB committee, but it’s clear he has a role and standalone value in fantasy. If Robinson misses any time, Allgeier will definitely be on the RB1 radar.
Alexander Mattison, Las Vegas Raiders (30.6%): Mattison leads the Raiders backfield with 41.6 fantasy points through four games, despite having fewer touches than Zamir White. He’s a better receiver out of the backfield and more skilled at avoiding tackles. Mattison deserves more touches. In Week 5, the Raiders face a Broncos defense that gives up the eighth-most RB receptions per game. This is key because, while the Broncos rank third in run stop win rate, the Raiders’ offensive line ranks last in run block win rate. Mattison could find himself heavily targeted against Denver.
Kareem Hunt, Kansas City Chiefs (21.4%): Hunt scored just 10.5 fantasy points Sunday against the Chargers, but he led Kansas City’s backfield with 16 touches. It’s also worth noting that Carson Steele lost a fumble early and didn’t play another snap after that. The Chiefs have one of the most explosive offenses, so Hunt could be a valuable fantasy option if he takes on more of the passing-game role along with rushing duties. He should be rostered in all leagues.
Quick hits
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1:06
Why Tank Bigsby is a valuable addition to fantasy teams
Eric Moody points to uncertainty around Travis Etienne’s shoulder as to why fantasy managers should add Tank Bigsby.
Tank Bigsby, Jacksonville Jaguars (6.4%): Bigsby led the Jaguars with an impressive 90 rushing yards on just seven attempts against the Texans, including a standout 58-yard run. To put that in perspective, that’s more than the 50 yards Travis Etienne Jr. gained on his 11 attempts, although Etienne suffered a shoulder injury in the first quarter. Bigsby has looked great this season and, with the Jaguars sitting at 0-4, head coach Doug Pederson’s seat is getting hotter. Don’t be surprised if Bigsby starts getting more touches against the Colts in Week 5.
Trey Sermon, Indianapolis Colts (0.8%): Jonathan Taylor left Sunday’s game against the Steelers due to a second-half ankle injury. It is a mild ankle sprain, but it’s unclear if he’ll any miss time. Taylor has averaged 19.5 touches per game this season. If he is out, Sermon will step into a key role behind an offensive line that ranks second in run block win rate. Also, in Week 5, the Colts face a Jaguars defense that has given up the fourth-most RB fantasy points.
Antonio Gibson, New England Patriots (29.3% rostered): Gibson has averaged 9.0 touches per game. He’s a solid pickup in deeper formats because the Patriots rank 11th in rushing attempts per game. If Rhamondre Stevenson misses time, Gibson could see a huge workload, even if for an underwhelming offense.
Roschon Johnson, Chicago Bears (13.4%): Even though D’Andre Swift racked up 23 touches and 29.5 fantasy points against the Rams on Sunday, Johnson seems to have secured the change-of-pace role. He posted only 8.6 fantasy points, but played more snaps than Khalil Herbert.
Tight ends
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Why Tucker Kraft has Field Yates’ attention
Field Yates explains how Tucker Kraft’s opportunities continue to grow in the Packers’ offense.
Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers (4.5%): Kraft set season highs Sunday against the Vikings with 9 targets, 6 receptions, 53 receiving yards and 17.3 fantasy points. Jordan Love threw the ball 54 times because the Packers were trailing all game long, but Kraft’s performance still bodes well for when the Packers have a more balanced attack. Up next in Week 5, Green Bay faces the Rams — a team that has given up the fourth-most TE fantasy points per game.
Tyler Conklin, New York Jets (35.7%): The Broncos shut down the Jets’ offense Sunday, but Conklin’s involvement was a bright spot, as he saw eight targets. He ranks third in routes run on the Jets this season and plays on a high percentage of snaps. In Week 5, New York faces a Vikings defense that has allowed the 10th-most total yards per game, giving Conklin a chance to stay involved.
Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6.2%): It has been a rough season for tight ends, with just 20 touchdowns scored by the position — on pace for the fewest through Week 4 since 1992. One thing to note: Otton has racked up 17 targets over the past two games. He has also scored double-digit fantasy points in consecutive matchups. As we head into the bye weeks, Otton is a solid streaming option for those in need, especially Thursday night against the Falcons.
