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Eric Moody, ESPNSep 28, 2024, 10:30 AM ET
- Former manager at a Fortune 100 financial services company, now living my dream creating fantasy and sports betting content about the NFL, NBA, and WNBA for ESPN.
The New York Knicks and Minnesota Timberwolves are in the process of finalizing a blockbuster trade of All-Star center Karl-Anthony Towns, sources confirmed to ESPN Friday night. This deal will likely have significant fantasy basketball implications.
The trade would send Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo to Minnesota, while Towns would head to New York. The Timberwolves will also receive a 2025 top-13 protected first-round pick from the Knicks via the Detroit Pistons. The Charlotte Hornets are the third team in the deal, according to sources, and are expected to receive draft compensation.
How will the trade work out for both teams involved? Let’s take a look.
Can Towns thrive in New York?
Karl-Anthony Towns reunites with head coach Thibodeau on the Knicks and could offer first-round value for fantasy managers. Photo by Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images
The Knicks had a clear need at center, especially with Isaiah Hartenstein leaving for the Oklahoma City Thunder and Mitchell Robinson sidelined until December after ankle surgery. New York was facing a center rotation of Precious Achiuwa, Jericho Sims and Randle. Now, they would have one of the league’s top centers in Towns, who also has the versatility to play power forward when needed.
Last season, Towns averaged 21.8 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 3.0 APG and 2.2 3-pointers in 32.7 minutes. From a fantasy perspective, the biggest advantage is that he no longer has to share the floor with Rudy Gobert, who limited his ceiling. Reuniting with coach Tom Thibodeau could also enhance Towns’ value. He averaged 23.0 PPG and 12.3 RPG in 204 games under Thibodeau from 2016 to early 2019, becoming one of only three players during that period to log at least 4,000 points and 2,000 rebounds. Towns has the potential to offer first-round fantasy value again, similar to his performance before sharing the court with Gobert.
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Towns does tend to struggle defensively, but those issues can be managed with the right personnel, and the Knicks have that. With strong perimeter defenders like OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges, Josh Hart and Miles McBride, Towns is joining an ideal roster that complements his skills, allowing him to thrive as a big man in more aggressive defensive scheme.
Randle’s departure frees up 35.4 minutes per game, and one player who could benefit immediately is Hart. Last season, he averaged 9.4 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 4.1 APG and 1.0 SPG while shooting 43.4% from the field. Hart is one of the best pure rebounders in the league, and if his shooting improves, his fantasy value could see a significant boost. Unlike Achiuwa, Hart is capable of consistently contributing across multiple stat categories. The Knicks player most negatively impacted by this trade is Robinson. The center isn’t expected to play until possibly next year while recovering from an ankle injury. He had a chance to play significant minutes, but Robinson’s injury history likely led Thibodeau and company to make this move.
How do Randle and DiVincenzo fit in Minnesota?
Julius Randle numbers might change playing alongside Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert in Minnesota. AP Photo/Adam Hunger
The Timberwolves would land two players who should seamlessly fit into their rotation. Randle averaged 24.2 PPG, 9.2 RPG and 5.0 APG for the Knicks in 46 games last season before suffering a dislocated shoulder. Even playing alongside Anthony Edwards and Gobert, he should be able to maintain those averages in Minnesota. However, I do have a few concerns. Over the past five seasons, Randle averaged 8.3 isolations per game, the fourth most in the league during that span. He might not get as many iso plays with Edwards in the lineup.
I’m curious to see if Randle attempts more 3-pointers with the Timberwolves if his isolation opportunities decrease. Last season, only 21% of his points came from beyond the arc. Another concern is Randle’s tendency to take questionable shots and dribble into traffic. That’s something he’ll need to tighten up in Minnesota. Randle also has a history with Timberwolves coach Chris Finch, who previously coached him as an assistant with the Pelicans in the 2018-2019 season.
DiVincenzo brings value as one of the best shooting guards off the bench for a Timberwolves team that now needs it after losing Towns. He averaged 15.5 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 2.7 APG and 1.3 SPG in 29.1 minutes last season. DiVincenzo also posted a career-high 21.8% usage rate and was third in the league in made triples, trailing only Luka Doncic and Stephen Curry. He’s fully capable of making an impact, even in a bench role, and should be someone to target in fantasy drafts just before the double-digit rounds.
Naz Reid also stands to benefit from Towns’ departure. He should see plenty of minutes at power forward and center. Reid won the Sixth Man of the Year Award last season, becoming the first Timberwolves player to do so. He posted career highs in almost every category, including 13.5 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 1.3 APG, 1.0 BPG and 1.0 SPG, while shooting 41.4% from 3-point range. Reid could be an ideal partner for Gobert if they share the court. Whether he starts or not, Reid is a player fantasy managers should target in the double-digit rounds.
Are the Knicks legitimate contenders in 2024-25?
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The Knicks were already a contender in the East before adding Bridges this summer. Now, with Towns on board, New York is even better positioned to compete with other top teams and potentially dethrone the Boston Celtics. They’ve built one of the most formidable starting lineups in the league but used up most of their assets and roster flexibility to do so. It’s crucial for New York to capitalize on this window, and I believe we’ll see that urgency on the court.
The Knicks were +800 to win the NBA title before the trade at ESPN BET and their odds shifted to +750 after the deal, behind only the defending champion Celtics (+340) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (+700).
As the season approaches, betting on the Knicks (+750) to win the championship and over 54.5 wins (-130) could be solid moves.
This team is built for a deep playoff run and has a real shot at its first NBA Finals appearance since 1999.
