Facts vs. Feelings: Trade up and win in Week 8

• Liz Loza, ESPNOct 23, 2024, 11:08 AM ET

Fantasy football is a passion for many. Sometimes that passion pushes fantasy managers to make emotional decisions even when the data suggests otherwise. Each week during the 2024 NFL season, Liz Loza will attempt to strike a balance between what the data states and what the heart wants. This is called Facts vs. Feelings.

Per Merriam-Webster, the word “commitment” is defined as “an agreement or pledge to do something in the future.”

Fair enough. That works.

Interestingly, though, the dictionary mogul lists a tertiary definition — which, to me, more aptly encapsulates the essence of the noun — adding, “the state or an instance of being obligated or emotionally impelled.”

Yeah, that’s more like it.

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Commitment has evolved beyond existing as an element of speech. It’s become a concept of character, used to motivate people into remaining duty-bound out of a sense of moral correctness. Figures throughout history and pop culture — from Charlemagne to Ted Lasso — have leveraged the notion of commitment to catalyze groups of people into staying focused and engaged. It’s a clever (and effective) device, intimating that a pledge to something greater is, in fact, a promise to one’s self.

Who among us hasn’t attempted an extra rep at the gym while eyeing an inspirational quote about purposeful grit? Or smiled with satisfaction when receiving commemorative swag from our employer, gifted as an appreciation for excellent worker bee behavior. The idea makes for a gorgeous dish that goes down deliciously.

Commitment is important. And crucial. And powerful. Which is why, sometimes, it’s necessary to question the “why” of it. Staying in something (or with someone) out of stubbornness (or laziness) is, in fact, antithetical to the action and growth-oriented nature of commitment. And when things get tough, that’s when bonds require renegotiated boundaries.

Changing one’s circumstances isn’t failure. Quite the contrary. Reversing course illustrates a dedication to decisive action. Staying at a job for the free pins or mugs isn’t going to result in anything other than more pins and mugs. Continuing to participate in a soul-sucking relationship out of a sense of loyalty will only invite more soul-suckage. Refusing to trade away Alvin Kamara because the early-season value made you feel like a genius won’t keep you contending.

Dread is a genre and fantasy football currently a subcategory. Running back is committed to committees. Tight end is upside down. And wide receiver has been decimated. That doesn’t mean you give up and quit, though. There is upside (and joy) yet to mine. The waiver wire may not be flush with alluring options (do, however, check out Eric Moody’s weekly column), but that doesn’t mean you can’t craft your own magic. Time to strategize, stump and swap.

The circumstances of our fake football environment are ripe with opportunity. Nearly everybody needs something. From Jayden Daniels‘ investors to Sam LaPorta supporters, teams are (reluctantly) open for business. It is never comfortable to divorce yourself from a player (or situation). And there will likely be a good amount of disappointment and rejection while separating. Still, bliss vows to emerge on the other side.

All you need to do is stay committed … to yourself.

C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans: Last Sunday, ahead of kickoff, I received a question on social media from a Stroud investor, asking if I would trade the Texans’ signal-caller for Jared Goff. I replied with a “no,” citing Stroud’s higher rushing upside. That was not the correct answer in Week 7. And it might not be the best option over the second half of the season.

Stroud and Goff are surprisingly evenly matched, ranking QB11 and QB12 in overall points. It’s true that Stroud has run more frequently (22 carries) and registered more rushing yards (94) than Goff. Still, the second-year QB is averaging (a less-than-enthralling) 13.4 rushing yards per game (QB27), barely moving the needle. Moreover, Stroud has logged two games of 25-plus fantasy points since the start of 2023. Goff, on the other hand, has posted four such contests during that span. Along those same lines, Stroud has cleared 18 fantasy points in nine career efforts. Yet, six of those efforts came when facing either Jacksonville or Indianapolis.

Stroud with and without Collins

Stroud’s fantasy specter loomed large after appearing incredibly pro-ready in his rookie campaign. It’s possible there exists another level of his game that has yet to be unlocked. Unfortunately, Nico Collins‘ absence makes that leap harder for fans to imagine and more difficult for Stroud to actualize. The 23-year-old’s career splits with and without Collins on the field are notably significant. His touchdown rate with Collins on the field ranks sixth out of 36 qualifiers, while his completion rate ranks ninth. Without Collins, those rankings drop to 30th and dead last, respectively.

Stroud’s matchup versus the Colts provides him a bounce-back opportunity for at least this week. Assuming he takes advantage (as he has three previous times over the course of his young career), Stroud might materialize as a player to trade away at peak value. Consider him a top-15 fantasy play at the position in Week 8.

Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions: Goff’s redemption story — from languishing as L.A.’s fallen star to remaking himself as the captain of Detroit’s long-cursed squad — is one of the best in the NFL. There exist some facts, however, that sway the feelings surrounding his stock. Goff has never fared well under pressure. He has been able to eschew this issue in Detroit because of the team’s seemingly impenetrable offensive line, which currently ranks first in protection rate at 93%.

Even Brian Flores’ hyper-lauded defense couldn’t derail the Lions’ passing attack, as Goff completed 22 of 25 attempts for 280 yards and two TDs while registering nary a pick. While this success may seem anomalous, Goff has regularly performed when facing the Vikings. The 30-year-old has gone over 250 passing yards, managed at least one passing score and avoided an interception in each of his three outings versus Minnesota since the start of 2023.

More and more, Motor City appears to be a well- and aptly oiled machine. The reflection of which can be discovered in its quarterback’s consistent yards per attempt and accuracy. For example, Goff has posted 11-plus YPA in three straight games, which is tied for the longest streak in the NFL over the past 20 years. His lack of rushing upside (13 carries and 17 yards so far in 2024) prevents him from ever emerging as a top-five fantasy QB. His efficiency as a thrower, however, makes him a regular top-15 contender.

Nobody should be happier to see Tua Tagovailoa back as Miami’s quarterback than Tyreek Hill (and his fantasy investors). Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins: On the topic of quarterbacks overcoming adversity, Tua Tagovailoa is expected to return after missing four fervently discussed games this coming weekend. That figures to bode well for Hill, who has logged a meager 30.4 total fantasy points since Tagovailoa has been sidelined. For context, Hill recorded five individual games of more than 30.4 fantasy points with Tua at the helm last season.

The contrast between Hill’s production with and without Tagovailoa cannot be overstated (except to, maybe, Hill investors who are painfully aware of the disparity). Still, the numbers remain shocking. Hill has scored 21 receiving TDs on 860 routes with Tua under center since moving to Miami in 2022. Conversely, the Cheetah has remained scoreless (giant neon donut) on 261 routes without Tua at QB.

Both players should audaciously rebound in a matchup versus the Cardinals. Arizona has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing WRs, giving up an average of 162 receiving yards per game as well as total of eight scores to the position. Hill is back in the top-five mix heading into Week 8.

Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jacksonville Jaguars: There must be something in that Louisiana water, because four of the top eight wideouts, in terms of receiving yards per game have come out of LSU. Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson and Malik Nabers might be obvious picks, but did you expect BTJ to make the list? Given that he was selected outside of the top 100 players (after Ezekiel Elliott and Jake Elliott) in fantasy drafts this past summer, I’m guessing not. Thomas has cemented himself as the Jaguars’ No. 1 WR and a must-start option for fans of the virtual game.

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Thomas’ vertical ability has quickly translated to the pros, as he managed the fifth-most yards on deep passes. More specifically, he’s one of just three players to have recorded 40-plus fantasy points on deep balls as well as 40-plus fantasy points from the slot (the other two are, unsurprisingly, Chase and Jefferson) this season. Given the state of Jacksonville’s defense, there’s no reason to believe Trevor Lawrence won’t continue to target the fleet-footed pass-catcher downfield (4.3 speed), attempting to regularly make up ground.

The measure of difficulty figures to increase from Week 7 to Week 8, as the Packers’ defense excels at generating takeaways and is coming off a game in which the unit limited Stroud to a career-low 86 passing yards. Still, Green Bay is middle-of-the-pack in terms of yards per reception allowed (11.0) and catches of more than 20 yards given up (18). Interestingly, Thomas has faced three squads that have allowed fewer fantasy points to opposing receivers — Miami, Buffalo and Chicago — and managed 14.7, 9.8 and 5.7 points, respectively.

The numbers are far from outstanding, but so is the state of the wide receiver position. Thomas has proven worthy of top-25 consideration. Managers should expect regression from Sunday’s numbers while noting Thomas’ WR2 upside heading into Week 8.

Jordan Mason, RB, San Francisco 49ers: Injuries have seemingly plagued the 49ers since well before September ever came into focus. With Christian McCaffrey (Achilles) still unlikely to practice this week, Brandon Aiyuk (ACL) done for the season, Deebo Samuel Sr. (pneumonia) hospitalized (he was discharged on Tuesday), and George Kittle (foot) day-to-day, Mason and Brock Purdy may be the sturdiest skill-position guys on the team.

Chiefs defense vs. top opposing RBs

That’s ironic given that Mason was limited by a shoulder sprain less than two weeks ago. Thankfully, the injury proved to be a nonissue on Sunday, as the Georgia Tech product reclaimed his status as the squad’s primary ball carrier, recording 16 touches in Week 8. Unfortunately, however, Mason’s stats didn’t rebound, preventing him from making a sizable fantasy impact (8.9 fantasy points). Dig a bit deeper, though, and the results make way for considerable optimism. Mason’s 58 rushing yards were, in fact, the most any running back has managed versus Kansas City thus far in 2024.

Mason’s value — even coming out of a numerically down effort — is enormous. Despite the injuries, the 49ers are 4.5-point home favorites versus Dallas on Sunday night. While the Cowboys figure to be rested and are getting healthier coming out of the bye, the team will still be without DeMarcus Lawrence. That provides Mason with immediate top-20 (maybe even 15) positional fantasy appeal.

Given that the NFC West is up for grabs and noting rumors that McCaffrey could return after the team’s Week 9 bye, Mason could be an intriguing trade candidate for a manager with depth at the position (especially since he was probably a lucky early-season waiver add). Plenty of question marks surrounding the offense (and CMC’s future usage) persist. Yet, Mason could deliver immediate relief to a team trying to stay afloat in Week 8.

Jaylen Warren, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers: The return of Russell Wilson and George Pickens‘ rebounding production dominated online chatter after Sunday night. Najee Harris‘ back-to-back 100-plus-yard rushing efforts additionally garnered an understandable amount of discourse. Lost in the mix, however, was Warren’s broadening role.

Limited by a hamstring issue suffered in mid-August and then sidelined for two games because of a knee injury suffered in late September, Warren’s third pro campaign has undeniably underwhelmed. Yet, the 25-year-old appears to be working his way back to health and recording more opportunities over his past two outings. Warren played 34% of the team’s offensive snaps (to Harris’ 48%) and ran seven routes in his Week 6 return. Those numbers climbed in Week 7, as Warren registered a 50% snap rate and ran 13 routes (six more than Harris). Warren also drew three looks, whereas Harris was not targeted in the passing game.

Warren may not have been dominant with his opportunities, but his volume is on the rise. His touches and efficiency figure to improve in a plus matchup versus the Giants on “Monday Night Football.” New York’s defense has allowed the second-most yards per carry (5.4) to opposing rushers. Additionally, the Steelers are 6.5-point home favorites, suggesting a positive game script for Pittsburgh’s backfield. With Warren’s arrow pointing up (he’s an RB3 for fantasy purposes in Week 8), now may be the time to sell high on Harris.

Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE, Carolina Panthers: Sanders was praised by scouts for his excellent concentration, reliable hands (just one drop over 14 games in 2023) and after-the-catch potential (343 YAC in 2023, TE4) throughout the NFL draft process. The Texas product slid to the fourth round, but has showcased his pro-ready skill set in Carolina. Sanders has drawn at least five looks and reeled in at least balls in each of his past three games. Only five tight ends — Trey McBride, Travis Kelce, Kittle, Brock Bowers, Kyle Pitts — have managed equivalent stats. The rookie has additionally recorded a 70% snap rate since Week 5.

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Admittedly, Sanders’ expanded role has coincided with Tommy Tremble‘s absence(s). The vet is expected to suit up on Sunday. However, Sanders has delivered. And on a young team desperate for silver linings, leaning into the development of a burgeoning star makes a whole lot of sense. Plus, the matchup works in Sanders’ favor, as the Broncos have allowed the seventh-most catches to opposing tight ends. He might not be a sure thing, but he belongs on the radars of managers committed to staying ahead.

Follow Liz on social @LizLoza_FF.

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