Facts vs. Feelings: Starts, sits and chasing that familiar feeling

• Liz Loza, ESPNOct 16, 2024, 01:03 PM ET

Fantasy football is a passion for many. Sometimes that passion pushes fantasy managers to make emotional decisions even when the data suggests otherwise. Each week during the 2024 NFL season, Liz Loza will attempt to strike a balance between what the data states and what the heart wants. This is called Facts vs. Feelings.

Sliding into a pair of broken-in jeans that hugs all the right places. Hearing an anthem from your youth shuffle its way into your wireless speakers. Locking eyes with an ex (you know which one) from across a crowded room.

This is not the setup for a country music song (though, I hear Luke Combs plays fantasy football).

Rather, it’s a comment on the “welcome back” energy that each of these scenarios delivers. There exists a curious combination of comfort, knowing and thrill when we return to something (or someone) that previously made us feel both at ease and alive. This culmination of sensations creates the space of a reset while encouraging a reimagining. Heck, all three could work in powerful syncopation. I mean, I know exactly which pair of pants I’m wearing and what song I’m blasting before heading out to a gathering where I’m likely to bump into that guy. But I digress.

The point is there’s something invigorating about returning. Boomerangs fascinate for a reason. Nobody wants to go backward, but we all enjoy the tingle of being back. It allows us to lean into that which feels good while remaining hopeful that the sequel might just be better than the original. Who doesn’t like picking up where we left off … especially if we paused at our peaks?

A similar theme has coursed its way through the NFL as of late. A slew of big-name players across various positions and teams — from the Eagles’ top two WRs to the whole of a feisty Lions squad — all dusted off their cleats in Week 6. Many were able to reclaim glory while helping fantasy managers get back on track.

This notion of optimistically beginning again is most palpably felt in the upcoming reunion between Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams. If it were a movie (because it’s already a novella), the posters would read “Breaking Ankles: A Big Apple-sized Bromance.” Yeah, that needs punching up. Still, the vibes are giving “aging buddy cop comedy.”

Whether or not this duo can reassemble for the good of the gridiron remains to be seen. Their return to each other, however, allows for each of them to come back to their previous best selves. That’s a fact that has managers feeling, if not wholly confident, at least intrigued. And what better way to pack the seats. So grab some popcorn and get your rosters ready.

Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots: While the rookie is charting a new course for himself, fans are hoping he can help reinstall the franchise to its previous factory setting. Maye put together an entertaining debut, passing for three scores while also leading his team in rushing. He registered 19.5 fantasy points and finished as fantasy’s QB12 in Week 6, out-producing Lamar Jackson, C.J. Stroud and Kyler Murray.

Throwing two picks and taking four sacks, Maye wasn’t perfect. Still, his three passing scores are historic. For context, 210 greenhorn signal-callers have made inaugural starts over the past 30 years. Only 11 of them have managed 3+ TDs during their maiden voyages. Noting the Pats’ impossibly poor O-line play only further highlights Maye’s accomplishment (and potential ceiling).

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New England’s pass block win rate (which measures how often the line sustains a block for at least 2.5 seconds) is 44%, which ranks second worst in the NFL. That’s saying something, considering the trenches are being blitzed at a middling rate (14th most). Understanding this should be key in determining when to stream the rookie, who has undoubtedly climbed into QB2 territory.

An outing on international soil may not be ideal for peak production. Though the Pats’ opponent figures to soften the blow. Jacksonville’s defense gifted a different rookie QB with a career-best showing, allowing Caleb Williams to complete more than 79% of his passes while tossing four scores across the pond this past Sunday. It wasn’t an aberration, as the Jaguars have allowed at least 23 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in four straight contests. It’s early days, but Maye appears deserving of the community’s attention and could flirt with top-15 numbers in Week 7.

Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons: Did the Falcons not sage the team’s facilities after Arthur Smith drove away from Flowery Branch? Because his essence has stayed to haunt Robinson’s stock. I’m not trying to be greedy. The twin rushing TDs and season-best 25+ fantasy points were beyond welcome, but it’s only the third time he has managed 16 or more fantasy points in 2024. The backfield’s distribution of wealth, however, cannot go unnoticed.

Tyler Allgeier‘s shadow continues to loom frustratingly large. The BYU product also finished inside the top 12 fantasy producers at the position in Week 6, recording three more carries and 10 more yards than Robinson. His snap share, routes run and tote totals pale in comparison to Robinson’s, but Allgeier remains very much in the mix. In fact, the workload split is not dramatically different than it was in 2023.

Falcons RB Play Participation, 2023-24

What’s especially chilling is how that usage has shown up in Robinson’s production and how his current numbers eerily reflect his stats from a year ago.

Bijan Robinson, Per-Game Numbers

Thankfully, the matchup versus Seattle figures to keep Robinson in managers’ good graces. Seattle’s defense has been cursed with a slew of injuries. The squad is slowly returning to health and shaking off rust, but the bounce-back doesn’t figure to take full form while facing a Falcons offense that appears to have found its stride. The Seahawks allow 5.0 YPC, so Robinson should fly, but his volume won’t help along the way. Consider the second-year back a top-five option this go-around while also bracing for unmet expectations down the stretch.

Joe Mixon, RB, Houston Texans: How much did we miss Mixon? After three long weeks of Band-Aiding with Cam Akers, managers gleefully greeted Houston’s true RB1 back into their starting lineups. Looking no worse for the wear, the 28-year-old answered, clearing 100 rushing yards and finding the end zone twice. Mixon has now managed 100+ rushing yards and 25+ fantasy points in each of his healthy games as a Texan.

Surrounded by a potent offense — from an unflappable QB to a stout offensive line to numerous field-stretching talents — Mixon appears to be unlocking a new level of play. He figures to keep the point-posting party in full swing at Lambeau in Week 7. The Packers’ defense is rife with ball hawks, as the squad leads the league in takeaways. However, Green Bay has struggled to slow opposing rushers, ranking 21st in yards per rush allowed (4.7) and 15th in fantasy points per game to running backs. Additionally, the Packers have given up the ninth-most catches and the fourth-most receiving yards to the position. With Nico Collins sidelined (and in a game with a spread of just 2.5), Mixon could be in line for more targets and points from receptions come Sunday. Start him with confidence.

JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Kansas City Chiefs: On the topic of tried and true, Andy Reid sure enjoys inviting former players back into the fold. Smith-Schuster was on bye in Week 6 but showcased his familiarity with Chiefs Kingdom the prior Monday. With Rashee Rice (and Hollywood Brown and Isiah Pacheco) sidelined, Smith-Schuster ranked behind only Travis Kelce in targets and receptions in Week 5. The 27-year-old converted seven of his eight looks for a team-high 130 yards, registering a vintage 20 fantasy points. Added to rosters in an impressive 13.5% of leagues, Smith-Schuster seems to be running it back with K.C. and fake football fans.

On the field for 53 offensive plays, Smith-Schuster spent a solid amount of his time inside, recording a slot rate of 38.5%. That figures to remain the case moving forward, particularly noting his 38.7% slot rate (WR22) from 2022. This alignment should work well given the matchup at Levi’s Stadium.

San Francisco’s secondary has succeeded at stifling the perimeter, posting the second-lowest catch rate and the sixth-fewest yards when facing boundary receivers. That’s in stark contrast, however, to the seventh-most receiving yards and fourth-most yards per receptions given up to opposing slot receivers. In a game with a spread of 1.5, JuJu figures to draw plenty of looks while capitalizing on his opportunities. He offers managers flex appeal in PPR-friendly formats.

Calvin Ridley has barely outscored his jersey in his past three games, totaling 5.3 PPR points on two catches for 14 yards and two carries for 19 yards. Justin Ford/Getty Images

Calvin Ridley, WR, Tennessee Titans: I have been more patient than most with Ridley, citing the difficulty of his early-season schedule and making allowances for a developing chemistry with Will Levis. Excuses remain, but after last week’s bagel against one of the NFL’s most generous secondaries, I am fresh out of fuzzies.

Ridley’s eight targets last week tied for the most without a catch since 2009. More specifically, only two receivers have been held to that many looks without a single conversion over the past decade. Amari Cooper experienced this travail in Week 14 of his rookie campaign. Tee Higgins underwent a similar fate, trying to reel in passes from a hobbled Joe Burrow in Week 1 of last season. Cooper, however, had posted four 100-plus-yard efforts before the unfortunate donut. Higgins would follow up his catchless effort with an 8-89-2 stat line. Neither of those scenarios have existed or appear in the cards for Ridley.

Admittedly, Levis has been playing through a shoulder injury. That might explain away about half of the duo’s missed connections. The other four, though, are harder to forgive. And even if there were a variable reason, the fact still remains that Ridley is doing more harm than good from a fantasy perspective. His squeaky wheel postgame comments might provide a little grease in Week 7, though a trip to Orchard Park to face a Bills defense that recently welcomed back Taron Johnson and Taylor Rapp doesn’t scream “steam.” Besides, receiver is so loaded with talent there’s no reason to hang onto the hope that Ridley can find his footing. Instead, contemplate adding an up-and-coming talent … like this next guy.

Ladd McConkey, WR, Los Angeles Chargers : I know, I know, I know … the Chargers are dead-last in pass attempts and McConkey is averaging a depth of target of 8.1 yards (WR71). He’s also leading the Bolts’ pass catchers in routes run, targets drawn, catches corralled and receiving yards. That may not seem like much given the low-volume passing offense he’s a part of, but his role is noteworthy when considering he’s largely a slot threat (60.8% slot rate, WR24) who is clearly being utilized in two-WR sets. The Chargers don’t have many bright spots, but McConkey is giving glimmer.

The rookie found the end zone in Week 5 and nearly managed a second trip during the first quarter of Week 6. Despite being briefly knocked out of the game, McConkey still registered a team-high eight looks. He has logged at least seven targets in three of five games this season. The Georgia standout figures to remain Justin Herbert‘s favorite aerial outlet while the QB chases points in Glendale (-2.5).

Arizona has underwhelmed when defending the inside, allowing the sixth-highest yards per reception and the fifth-most YAC per reception to opposing slot receivers. Given McConkey’s tackle-evading skills and after-the-catch ability, the rookie could eat on Monday night. His upside offers managers immediate top-30 positional appeal and potentially more as the season progresses.

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David Njoku, TE, Cleveland Browns : I had planned to highlight Njoku prior to the Amari Cooper trade news, focusing on the 28-year-old’s return to health. Now that the Browns’ target tree has been further pruned, Njoku’s stock has additionally been resuscitated. He’s still attached to a hapless Deshaun Watson, but should continue to draw at least five targets per effort, which would place him inside the top 10 at the position.

This weekend’s battle between the Bengals and Browns is likely to be more “Midwestern nice” than a stirring classic. Regardless, Cincy’s defense has struggled with injuries and inefficiencies since the start of 2024. The Bengals have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, allowing the Giants’ Theo Johnson to convert each of his three looks. Assuming Njoku’s role expands, a top-eight fantasy TE outing seems entirely in his strong-handed grasp. Let’s welcome him back.

Follow Liz on social @LizLoza_FF.

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