Nov 20, 2024, 12:19 PM ET
Fantasy football is a passion for many. Sometimes that passion pushes fantasy managers to make emotional decisions even when the data suggest otherwise. Each week during the 2024 NFL season, Liz Loza will attempt to strike a balance between what the data states and what the heart wants. This is called Facts vs. Feelings.
“All Gas. No Brakes.”
Originally the title of a personal memoir by independent journalist Andrew Callaghan, the phrase has been since borrowed by motivational speakers, football coaches and LARPers alike. Describing an individual in possession of unrelenting drive or a circumstance that requires gut-steeling tenacity, the expression is often employed to inspire focus and forward action.
While that covers the “gas” of it, the absence of “brakes” intimates an intensity that eschews risk at all costs. In fact, neuroscientists have used the idiom to characterize the turbo-charged nature of an adolescent’s brain. Think Leeroy Jenkins as Braveheart. Basically, it’s giving unhinged … but in the most celebrated way possible.
We’ve all been there. Plowing through a metaphorical mountain of obligations with white knuckles … and a mischievous smirk. The energy is ever-so-slightly shifted. This approach prioritizes “allowing” over “pushing.” It helps if the tasks at hand are at least adjacently related to genuine points of interest. You know, those opportunities in which you “get” to do something instead of “having to.” Few folks receive an adrenaline rush from folding laundry. Packing those freshly folded frocks for a business trip to Vegas, though? Now, that could invite a trickle of epinephrine into the bloodstream.
If I’m being honest, the reframe is selfish. I’m typing this week’s column 30,000 feet above Metro Detroit, having just departed from Hartford on my way back to Los Angeles. I’ll be home for less than 24 hours before boarding another plane (my third in four days), which will take me to Sin City for work.
And I’m geeked … because I GET TO cover the Las Vegas Grand Prix.
Will I be running on fumes? Yes. Am I nervous about being so exhausted that I make some silly mistake? Sure. Am I entirely confident that all of my personal and professional to-dos will be ticked away in an efficient manner? Not at all. But am I channeling my inner paladin, gassed up about the break I just earned? YOU BET.
This time of year can be relentless. Parent-teacher conferences. Thanksgiving meal prep. Holiday shopping. It’s all winding up under the guise of a wind-down. Which is why it’s imperative to find the slivers of excitement outside of sign-ups, Stove Top and super sales. This is not a race. You’re not here just to win. You get to choose when to put the pedal to the metal and enjoy the damn ride.
Go ahead and be nervous about J.K. Dobbins‘ red zone exposure and then watch him leap his way into the end zone twice in prime time. Convince yourself that Breece Hall will never ROI on his first-round draft capital and then cheer as he manages a multi-touchdown effort. Shake your head in disbelief when the oft-accurate Justin Tucker misses on his fifth and sixth field goals at Pittsburgh. Throw a dart at Christian Watson, hoping his ceiling will show up in a game against a long-time rival squad.
Let the apprehension give way to appreciation regardless of the result. Because the fact is a successful drive requires staying fueled and feeling every turn.
Bo Nix, QB, Denver Broncos: Let’s ride! Nix has been flush with fantasy points since Week 5, going over 20 in four of his past seven games and averaging 21.5 during that span. The rookie is currently listed as the virtual game’s QB7 overall, just one spot behind Jayden Daniels, and No. 5 in Mike Clay’s xFP leaderboard (E+), where his -4 FORP (fantasy points over replacement player) has been climbing consistently. Ranking fifth at the position in pass attempts (32.5 per game) and first among QBs in deep-ball throws (4.7 per game), Nix has demonstrated progress as a passer with a penchant for converting in the red zone. He’s tossed 13 TDs since the calendar flipped to October, which ranks inside the top 5 signal-callers in the NFL.
In addition to his arm, the former Duck has been generating production via his legs. Taking off an average of 5.7 times per contest (QB9) and posting nearly 27 rushing yards per effort (QB12), Nix has scampered into the end zone on four separate occasions (QB5). The 24-year-old has been serving serious dual-threat vibes. In fact, only Josh Allen has more combined scores, with 18 passing TDs (to Nix’s 14) and five rushing TDs (to Nix’s four).
With an upcoming strength of schedule that ranks as the third easiest, Nix figures to keep cruising. He’ll meet me in Vegas in Week 12 to take on a Raiders defense that appears to be waving the white flag, surrendering the most fantasy points to opposing QBs over the past two weeks. A matchup versus the Colts in Week 15 and the Bengals in Week 17 should additionally work in his favor. Do beware, however, that Nix goes on bye in Week 14 and draws a stout Chargers defense in Week 16.
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David Montgomery, RB, Detroit Lions: Montgomery made two trips to the end zone in the Lions’ routing of the Jaguars last Sunday, putting him at a total of 22 rushing TDs over his first 24 outings in Detroit. For reference, Barry Sanders registered 21 rushing TDs in his first 25 games while wearing Honolulu Blue (1989-1990). That’s not bad for an RB-TWO! More specifically, Monty’s 10 rushing scores over 10 contests has been bested by only Derrick Henry (13) and Jalen Hurts (11).
With 32 red zone opportunities (RB9) and nine goal line carries, the 27-year-old’s high-value utilization is intentional, elevating him well beyond a player who has a “nose for the end zone.” His role and importance to the team was made clear when Brad Holmes signed the former Bear to a four-year deal in mid-October. Jahmyr Gibbs (RB5 overall) may be averaging nearly two more fantasy points per game than Montgomery (RB10 overall), but this is a complementary backfield that is equitably shared. Moreover, both Gibbs and Montgomery have managed 12 or more fantasy points in every game except one (Week 7), illustrating the duo’s remarkable consistency. With Detroit’s offense running on all cylinders, there figures to be nothing but daylight ahead for Montgomery. Consider him a top-15 play at the position versus the Colts in Week 12.
Aaron Jones, RB, Minnesota Vikings: Similar to the trail blazed by Montgomery, Jones has had success staying within the division. Currently the virtual game’s RB19 overall, Jones is averaging 14 fantasy points per outing and has posted double-digit fantasy totals in four of his past five efforts. A closer look, however, reveals some troubling trends that managers might want to keep in mind while looking ahead to the playoffs.
Jones’ efficiency as a rusher seems to have stalled as of late, as he’s averaged fewer than 3.2 yards per carry in three of his past four contests. His volume, which has been heartily buoyed by his role in the passing game (2.9 receptions per game, RB13), has kept his fantasy stock afloat. However, he’s coming off of his lowest touch total (16) since the team’s Week 6 bye. Additionally, the former Packer has found the end zone just once over his past three games. The potency of the Vikings’ offense — which posted 23-plus points in six straight games to start the season and has now dipped to 23 or fewer in the team’s past four outings — has petered out a bit. That dip has, naturally, trickled down to Jones.
Additionally working against the 29-year-old’s upside has been the emergence of Cam Akers. The 25-year-old has recorded double-digit touches (of 14 and 12) in back-to-back games. That, of course, is not an ample amount to command standalone value, but it is enough to lower Jones’ ceiling. Noting his age and injury history, it makes sense that the Vikings would want to keep the team’s RB1 fresh. That’s a trend that figures to continue over the back half of the season and at Chicago on Sunday. The Bears are better against the pass than the run, giving Jones waning RB2 appeal heading into the weekend.
Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams: One of the most high-motor players in the league, Nacua sometimes bends but the man seems to never break. A shifty chess piece that can be deployed from all levels of the field, the second-year wideout has demonstrated excellent efficiency, averaging 2.63 yards per route run (WR8). He also crushes after contact, leading the team in receiving yards after first contact (66), despite having missed the first five games of 2024. With a target rate (ratio of total targets to total routes run) above 32% (WR2), Nacua regularly makes the most out of every opportunity.
That’s a large part of why he’s emerged as the Rams’ No. 1 WR and continues to earn a massive number of looks. Injuries and ejections notwithstanding, Nacua has recorded 14 and 9 targets in his two fully healthy and present contests, out-targeting Cooper Kupp 23-17 in those outings. Coming off a season-best showing (7-123-1), the former fifth-round selection appears to be rounding into form at the perfect moment for fantasy managers. With Matthew Stafford passing for over 290 yards in three straight games and in a matchup with a projected point total of 48.5, Nacua’s services figure to be in high demand on Sunday night. Consider him an easy WR1 (with top-5 positional upside) in Week 12.
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Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals: Higgins’ season has been fraught with twists, turns and unfortunate speed bumps. Still, he remains one of the highest-ceiling second fiddles in the NFL and fantasy. The 25-year-old has cleared 75 receiving yards in each of his past four games, registering four spikes over that span. As a result, he’s posted top-10 positional numbers in three of his past five outings while averaging 18.5 fantasy points per effort. Injuries have been an obvious issue, but when he’s been healthy, Higgins has proven he can be a No. 1 WR, laying out in what we can assume is also an attempt to secure the bag in free agency.
To that point, Ja’Marr Chase has drawn 50 targets in five games without Higgins on the field. Surprisingly, however, Higgins has out-targeted Chase 57-51 in the duo’s six games played together! Additionally, the Bengals have scored 28.3 PPG with Higgins active and 25.4 when he’s been forced to miss time. Clearly, Higgins is a difference-maker. Coming off a strong 9-148-1 effort and with the bye ahead of him, Higgins has a chance to rest, reset and take all of that positive momentum with him over the final weeks of the season. A tilt versus Denver in Week 17 is less than ideal, but with matchups against Dallas, Tennessee and Cleveland from Weeks 14-16, Higgins figures to be lights-out during the fantasy playoffs.
Kendrick Bourne, WR, New England Patriots: From two bonafide stars to a potential sleeper, Bourne is finding his late-career identity. The 29-year-old flashed at various points over the past three seasons, demonstrating intriguing rapport with Mac Jones. An ACL tear in late October of last year, however, upended his 2023 campaign and kept him off the field until Week 5 of 2024. Gradually developing chemistry with Drake Maye and slowly being folded into the offense over the following month, Bourne started to hit his stride in Week 9, converting four of six looks for 41 yards in the Pats’ overtime loss at Tennessee.
The Eastern Washington product wasn’t able to build on that performance, as Jerod Mayo benched him in Week 10, electing to provide the corps’ younger members with extra playing time. While Mayo may (or may not) have intended Bourne’s forced absence to serve as a wakeup call, that’s exactly the effect the benching had on the veteran wideout, at least statistically. Bourne suited up and thrived on 48% of the team’s offensive snaps last Sunday, converting all five looks for a team-high 70 receiving yards and was New England’s only WR to score a touchdown (OT Vaderian Lowe was on the other side of Maye’s other TD pass). No other receiver drew either a red zone or end zone target.
The Pats are a tough team to telegraph. Still, Bourne has collected 11 total looks over his past two games. Additionally, Maye has been progressing, tossing 9 TDs in five full outings (1.8 TDs per game ranks seventh in the NFL) and exhibiting exploitable upside. As 7-point road dogs at Miami, the rookie QB is expected to be chasing points and, perhaps, relying on an experienced pass-catcher whose vigor for the game has been recently renewed. With six teams on bye and the position littered with injuries, Bourne could be a Hail Mary worth waiting on.
Theo Johnson, TE, New York Giants: The obvious choices at the position — Travis Kelce, T.J. Hockenson, Kyle Pitts and Evan Engram — failed to hit in Week 11. However, as has been the case for much of the season, lesser-known names like Will Dissly and Luke Schoonmaker showed up for fantasy managers. In that spirit, I give you Johnson. A fourth-round selection out of Penn State, Johnson has emerged as New York’s TE1, earning extra reps on the heels of Darren Waller’s preseason retirement.
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The 23-year-old’s involvement has steadily increased over the course of the season. In fact, he recorded a snap rate below 80% in four of first five games, but has logged a 90% snap rate since Week 6, which ranks third highest among TEs over that span. He’s additionally running an average of 26.2 routes per game (TE6) and has drawn a season-high six looks in each of his past two efforts.
He figures to remain central to the G-Men’s offensive plan versus the Buccaneers in Week 12. Tampa Bay has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, gifting the position with five scores over their most recent four contests. With Tommy DeVito (who took 37 sacks in six games as NY’s primary QB in 2023) behind the wheel and likely needing to get the ball out quickly, Johnson figures to be leaned upon early and often. All signs point to the rookie racing up the ranks and presenting virtual investors with top-15 positional appeal. Beep, Beep!
Follow Liz on social @LizLoza_FF.
