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Liz Loza, ESPNDec 4, 2024, 12:36 PM ET
Fantasy football is a passion for many. Sometimes that passion pushes fantasy managers to make emotional decisions even when the data suggests otherwise. Each week during the 2024 NFL season, Liz Loza will attempt to strike a balance between what the data states and what the heart wants. This is called Facts vs. Feelings.
Routines. We need them. They are the systems by which we function and flow with ease and optimal productivity. They’re also kind of boring, which is why it’s fun to divert from their regularity. Discovering the balance between “off schedule” living and staying “on track” is one of life’s trickiest endeavors (next to remembering user IDs and cashing in frequent flyer miles).
Motivational speakers love espousing quotes about routines. How healthy habits are essential to attaining goals. So much “secret success” lies in the power of habitual living. And don’t even get me started on the fetishization of morning routines. Per the internet’s Wellness Gurus, sunrise should be met with a specific series of stretches, freshly pressed green juice, a 20-minute journaling sesh and a carefully curated list of action items to tick through before noon.
Bleh. Are we robots? Should we be so consumed with our individual efficiency, constantly shaving margins in order to achieve maximum output?
No thanks. I don’t know about you, but I thoroughly enjoyed my breakfast of leftover key lime pie straight from the container this past Friday. Sleeping in until 8 a.m. (I have kids, that’s late) was an equally decadent treat. Not to mention sipping Cab in a hot tub, cackling with my girlfriends into the wee hours of the weekend. These were the joy points of my Thanksgiving holiday.
Did I “pay” for it? That depends on your definition. My cheeks were undeniably puffy on Sunday. (Though, I didn’t receive a single social media message noting their fullness.) I full-on forgot to swap out Spencer Shrader from two of my fantasy lineups. (But I still won both matchups, thanks to other unpredictable variables.) And I nodded off in the theater during “Moana 2” (not at all because it relies on a deep recollection of the original film’s mythology … but because I was beat).
All of those instances occurred because I wasn’t in routine. Instead, I enjoyed refined sugar, eschewed responsibilities and took space when it was available to me. And it was worth it. Not because I got away with anything, but because I enjoyed the diversion from my normal. I was also pleased to return to my regular program once the new week began.
It seems as though staying facile through the transitions remains the greatest indicator of success. Trusting oneself to step away and then back up is what, in fact, keeps us moving purposefully (and happily) forward. Had Josh Allen been unwilling to stray from the script, fantasy managers wouldn’t have been awarded both a passing score and a 7-yard receiving touchdown on the same play. If Jerry Jeudy hadn’t been open to change, he may not have dropped a 9-235-1 stat line on his old team. And if Liam Coen wasn’t willing to take a shot on a fourth-round rookie, Bucky Irving probably wouldn’t have cleared 25 fantasy points in back-to-back weeks.
Sometimes you have to do something different, understanding that you’re disciplined enough get back to it once it’s time. This is the final week of the regular season for many of us. Trust in yourself and make it count.
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Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles: Hurts’ legs have always been automatic. His growth as a passer, however, super-charged his fantasy stock, making him one of the highest-drafted players at the position for several years now. Production is, of course, susceptible to peaks and valleys, but Hurts’ has curiously remained outside of the top 10 positional contributors for three straight weeks. He’s averaging an underwhelming 16.6 fantasy points since Week 11. That’s a fine floor, but not ideal with the most crucial weeks of the season upcoming.
With Hurts logging 14 aerial scores and 12 rushing TDs on the season, the Eagles appear content to swipe left on passing opportunities. Even in a matchup against a porous Ravens secondary (that has been on the receiving end of a league-high 489 attempts), No. 1 put the ball in the air just 19 times, his second-fewest attempts in 2024 after his 14-attempt outing in a 28-3 blowout of the Giants in Week 7. It seems as though Philly’s offense goes high only when absolutely necessary.
This is a trend that has revealed itself over the course of the season. Looking back, Hurts averaged 33 pass attempts per game during the first month of the season. Since then, that number has dwindled to 21.5 pass attempts per contest, including 28 or fewer in every game, 25 or fewer in seven of eight efforts, and 20 or fewer in half of the team’s outings since the team’s Week 5 bye. It’s a formula that’s worked. The Eagles have won eight in a row, all while being bolstered by a fierce defensive unit that has held opposing offenses to 15.3 points per game.
That doesn’t bode particularly well for Hurts’ fantasy ceiling in Week 14. The Eagles opened as 12-point home favorites versus a frisky Panthers squad. Carolina has been surprising, and trap games certainly snap, but a double-digit spread suggests a continued ground-and-pound approach from the Birds. Noting his aforementioned floor, Hurts remains a top-5 play at the position. And with upcoming matchups versus Pittsburgh and at Washington, Philly’s offense should lift into the fantasy playoffs. This go-around, however, managers would be wise to flex other positions for upside, attempting to compensate for a likely lack of flight via the squad’s signal-caller.
James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills: Cook has been doing a lot with not so much. The Bills’ RB is averaging 16 touches per contest, ranking 23rd at the position in totes (151) and 28th among backs in grabs (26). He’s surprisingly registered fewer than 15 touches in four of six games since missing Week 6 with a toe issue. Still, he’s remained impressively efficient, clearing 15 fantasy points in four of his past six outings while logging 5.1 yards per touch (RB17) on the season. His prowess in the red area has additionally heartened his stock, as Dalvin’s little brother has found the end zone 12 times in 11 games.
Regular readers are fully aware of my stance on chasing TDs. However, when sharing a backfield with Josh Allen, the doling out of goal-line opportunities takes on a different pallor. Remarkably, Allen’s legs have remained relatively subdued, as he’s posted just five games of 30 or more rushing yards. Cook’s involvement has helped to spell the QB. In fact, the running back has managed seven carries inside the 5-yard line as well as 17 goal-to-go carries, both of which are more than the rest of his backfield mates (including Allen) combined.
Noting the potency of Buffalo’s offense as well as Cook’s nose for the end zone, the 25-year-old figures to feast against the Rams (21st in fantasy points to RBs) on Sunday. He’ll face a tougher battle at Detroit in Week 16. But with New England (24th in fantasy points to RBs) on the docket for the semis, Cook could be key to carrying managers to the ‘Ship.
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Isiah Pacheco, RB, Kansas City Chiefs: Kareem Hunt may have carried fantasy squads, but Pacheco could, potentially, guide them to the end. The Chiefs’ presumptive lead back shook off rust with apparent ease in Week 13. The Rutgers alum registered the same number of totes (7) but nearly three times as many yards per carry as his fill-in. Hunt drew more targets in the passing game, though that was likely the result of an uncannily high 79% designed pass rate versus the Raiders. Pacheco is expected to push Hunt down the team’s depth chart and is all but guaranteed more work Sunday night, as the Chiefs are 3.5-point home favorites versus the Chargers.
Good news, right? Sort of. Because as we’ve discussed all season, nothing is permanent. Kansas City’s rest-of-season schedule (starting this Sunday) is brutal. Los Angeles figures to be the Chiefs’ best rushing opportunity, as the Bolts have allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to RBs. However, the backfield won’t receive much respite with upcoming matchups at Cleveland (sixth-fewest fantasy points allowed) in Week 15, versus Houston (seventh fewest) in Week 16, and Pittsburgh (10th fewest) in Week 17.
Additionally, noting the increased breadth of KC’s offensive weapons, Pacheco’s value isn’t nearly the same as it was back in September (or last December). Investors must manage their expectations accordingly. If you made it to the playoffs without Pacheco, then you needn’t feel obligated to start him through the end of the year. Consider KC’s RB1 a high-end flex heading into the weekend.
Rico Dowdle, RB, Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys have refused to surrender and Dowdle has emerged as one of the team’s most-relied-upon pieces. Signed to a one-year prove-it deal, the 26-year-old has recorded at least 15 touches in four of his past five games. More notably, he’s cleared 20 touches in back-to-back efforts (and wins for the ‘Boys). For context, Dowdle has accounted for 41 of Dallas’ 48 running back carries over the past two weeks, with Ezekiel Elliott logging four and FB Hunter Luepke handling the remaining three. Dowdle has additionally accounted for six of the offense’s seven running back targets during that span.
His work in the passing game remains pivotal, particularly as 5-point home dogs versus the Bengals on Monday night. Regardless, Dowdle should get fed early in an attempt to play keep-away from Joe Burrow. Given the porous nature of the Bengals’ defense (the fifth-most fantasy points allowed to RBs over the past four weeks), that could lead to a number of positive gains for the running back. With volume being king and the defensive matchup appearing plus, Dowdle offers low-end RB2 fantasy appeal in Week 14.
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Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets: Cool. Cool. Cool. Or, OMG, not at all. Wilson has now recorded three consecutive efforts of fewer than 10 fantasy points. That’s a feat he hasn’t replicated since Weeks 4 through 7 of his rookie campaign, when he wasn’t even a full-time starter. This go-around, however, volume is not the issue. Wilson is involved. He’s running nearly 38 routes per game (WR5) and ranks second at the position in targets per contest (9.7).
His 97% snap rate certainly wasn’t the problem in Week 13. Nor were his 10 looks, of which only five were converted. The fact that Jaxon Smith-Njigba — whom, like a dummy, I told Daniel Dae Kim in front of a national audience to sit in favor of Wilson — made good on all four of his opportunities speaks volume. This is not about the pass-catchers, but the QBs. Aaron Rodgers is tanking Wilson’s fantasy stock, as evidenced by the wideout’s 58.9% catchable target rate (WR92). That’s nearly 10 points worse than it was a year ago with Zach Wilson & Friends under center for the bulk of the season.
The Jets’ offense managed a pathetic 4.2 yards per play last Sunday. Moreover, New York has posted 153 passing yards per game since Week 10, which ranks dead last in the NFL. A correction is hard to imagine at Miami in Week 14. The Dolphins’ front has been banged-up and struggles to collect tackles, but the secondary has been sticky, giving up the sixth-fewest catches and the fewest receiving yards to opposing WRs for the season. Wilson’s talent is undeniable, but his upside is being erased by the weight of ego and inefficiency. The sad fact is, with six teams on bye, he’s worth WR2 consideration. None of it feels particularly good, though.
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Ray-Ray McCloud III, WR, Atlanta Falcons: Kirk Cousins hates your fantasy team. He doesn’t care that you spent a third-round pick on Drake London or identified Darnell Mooney‘s burgeoning value well before Week 5. He’s going to lock-in on McCloud just enough to keep you triggered. Tied for second in team targets (with Bijan Robinson and Mooney), McCloud converted four of six looks for a season-high 95 yards (and 13.3 fantasy points) in Week 13. And his specter doesn’t figure to shrink heading into the weekend.
The Falcons’ slot man has carved out a nifty role for himself, drawing at least three looks and collecting a minimum of two grabs in each of the team’s 12 outings. That may not sound like a lot, but only a select few receivers have achieved the same consistency. In addition to McCloud, the list includes: CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, DJ Moore, George Pickens, Garrett Wilson and Brian Thomas Jr. Furthermore, McCloud leads Atlanta in slot snaps (290) and ranks ninth at the position in slot snap share at nearly 45%. His omnipresence is evidence of the team’s trust in him and suggests continued usage.
It also means he could slay at U.S. Bank Stadium on Sunday. Minnesota’s secondary has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing slot receivers thus far in 2024. Cousins is likely to attack the Vikings’ vulnerability with revenge narrative gusto while chasing points as 5.5-point road dogs. McCloud may not post gaudy yardage stats or even find the end zone, but he should be peppered, making the seven-year vet a sneaky sleeper in PPR-friendly formats.
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Chig Okonkwo, TE, Tennessee Titans : Cue Sabrina Carpenter because this pick has me begging not to be embarrassed. I regularly and unabashedly backed the Music City tight end through much of 2023. It should be no surprise, then, that I’ve been more subdued in my support this go-around. In the spirit of renewed routines, however, I’m back on board.
Okonkwo is coming off of a season-high six-target effort. But the volume wasn’t too much of a fluke, as he’s drawn at least four looks in five of his past seven outings. He’s additionally tied with Calvin Ridley for second on the team in end zone targets (behind TD juggernaut Nick Westbrook-Ikhine).
That works out nicely given the matchup against a Jaguars defense that has not only allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to TEs over the past four weeks, but has also given up the third-most scores to the position (7) on the season. With Dallas Goedert, Taysom Hill and Dalton Kincaid all banged-up, as well as six teams on bye, Chig could help short-term investors keep living the stream into Week 15.
Follow Liz on social @LizLoza_FF.
