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Liz Loza, ESPNDec 11, 2024, 11:30 AM ET
Fantasy football is a passion for many. Sometimes that passion pushes fantasy managers to make emotional decisions even when the data suggests otherwise. Each week during the 2024 NFL season, Liz Loza will attempt to strike a balance between what the data states and what the heart wants. This is called Facts vs. Feelings.
This past weekend, I went to support a friend (and leaguemate) in a local production of “Waiting for Godot.” Penned by Irish existentialist Samuel Beckett, the play is a commentary on the absurdity of existence. Centered around two comrades, the story unfolds in minimalist fashion, pregnant with intentional pauses and heady dialogue. Basically, two aging bros are trying to pass time while the third wheel is slow to arrive. Spoiler: He never shows up.
So what is it all for? Well, that’s the point. The time is what the characters — and by proxy, the audience members — make of it. This notion was wonderfully expressed by the theatergoers sprinkled throughout the hall. Seated directly in front of me was a middle-aged man who laughed wildly and constantly, wickedly delighted by every ounce of slapstick. Paradoxically, a dark-haired woman two seats to my right fell asleep on my date’s shoulder with her opera glasses lazily suspended just off-center of her face. Meanwhile, I admittedly checked my phone, nervous that the 150-minute run time would compromise my prep session for Sunday morning’s programming slate.
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The crossroads between intellectual crisis and fantasy football don’t often (or ever?) intersect, but the waiting of it all struck me. Do we twiddle our thumbs? Or impatiently tap our feet? Conversely, some of us might appreciate the calm and allow our minds to wander. Perhaps daydreaming about a person we hope to return to or a goal we aim to achieve. And what about the actual passage of the time? Does its pace frustrate or enliven us? The fact is, it’s all fleeting. Our feelings, however, remain sticky.
That’s the gift of this experience, I suppose. We’ve toiled for 14 weeks and have finally come to a tipping point. Whether we’ve ridden Saquon Barkley to a first-round bye or squeaked in on the borrowed heels of Isaac Guerendo‘s cleats, it’s playoff time, baby! I hope the journey has been full and memorable, rather than sluggish and dull. Who knows what happens after Monday night, though my wish is that you’ll come back and continue to ride along … even vicariously.
But enough of wordy intros. Instead, using Beckett’s Vladimir as inspiration …
“Let us not waste our time in idle discourse! Let us do something, while we have the chance … at this place, at this moment of time, all mankind is us, whether we like it or not. Let us make the most of it before it is too late! Let us represent worthily for once the foul brood to which a cruel fate consigned us! What do you say?”
It’s go time!
Sam Darnold, QB, Minnesota Vikings: Who better to kick off an article influenced by existential dread than a man who sees ghosts? We must admit, however, that Darnold’s yips appear to have been exorcised since arriving in the Twin Cities. Maneuvering his way through a career campaign, the 27-year-old is currently fantasy’s QB7 overall, averaging over 18.6 fantasy points per game. That number, however, is skewed by his 34.6-point eruption in Week 14.
To that end, Darnold fell short of 24 fantasy points for the first 13 weeks of the season, logging at least 19 on seven separate occasions. The floor was clear. Now, however, the ceiling appears sky-high. The return of T.J. Hockenson and the emergence of Jordan Addison have contributed to Darnold’s lift in production while helping to snuff out his midseason slump. Darnold has logged two or more passing scores in 10 of 13 games overall, and six of his past seven. For context, Darnold and Joe Burrow are the only two QBs in the league to throw multiple TD passes in 10 games this season.
As a result, Darnold is worthy of top-8 positional consideration heading into Week 15. Chicago presents as a negative matchup, but the Bears’ pass defense has struggled lately, allowing six passing scores over the team’s past three outings after giving up only seven TDs through the first 10 games. Furthermore, the past four QBs to face the Bears have averaged 19.7 fantasy points per game (including Darnold himself, who threw for 330 yards and 2 TDs at Soldier Field in Week 12). Forget what you thought you knew about Darnold (or the Bears’ defense) — the journeyman is coming in hot down the stretch!
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Jerome Ford, RB, Cleveland Browns: Ford doesn’t project to hold stand-alone fantasy value, but his return to the Browns’ backfield does limit Nick Chubb‘s upside. The third-year RB averaged 9.6 carries per game while Chubb was sidelined and before injuring his hamstring in Week 6. Interestingly, Ford has averaged 9.5 carries per effort with Chubb in the lineup over his past two contests. Additionally, Ford has remained the more explosive rusher, posting 4.6 YPC (to Chubb’s 3.1). Given the younger back’s superior efficiency and notable pass-catching skills (he’s posted nine grabs since the team’s Week 10 bye), there’s no reason to believe he won’t continue to earn meaningful touches.
In fact, the esteemed Mike Clay has Ford (7.9) and Chubb (7.7) projected to record nearly the same number of fantasy points versus Kansas City. Yet, Chubb remains rostered in 84% of leagues, while Ford is rostered in 31% of them. Now that the Browns have been mathematically eliminated from the postseason, it’s not impossible to believe Cleveland might opt to shut Chubb down early. That could be a boon for savvy stashers, who had been eyeing one of the least-discussed backups at the position, particularly when noting a plus matchup at Cincinnati in Week 16. Plan accordingly.
Travis Etienne Jr., RB, Jacksonville Jaguars: Decoding coachspeak isn’t terribly dissimilar to parsing Beckett’s broodings. For example, Jacksonville’s coaches exited last season waxing poetic about the robust number of touches they assigned Etienne. What wasn’t clear in all of the hemming and hawing, however, was the club’s intention to transform Trevor Lawrence‘s college teammate into a change-of-pace back. I’m being facetious, of course. Still, Etienne’s workload (or lack thereof) has surpassed alarming and is now at a point of surrender.
Etienne is currently the RB34 in total carries, averaging nine totes per contest. Meanwhile, Tank Bigsby is listed three spots ahead, at 10 per game. Neither elicits much excitement, but the gap in opportunity share has become glaring and only appears to be growing. Bigsby out-touched Etienne 19-8 in Week 14. The younger rusher also out-snapped his counterpart by four points (52% for Bigsby and 48% for Etienne) last Sunday.
Etienne has been more involved in the passing game, registering three or more catches in three consecutive efforts, but that hardly constitutes a playoff-worthy start. With just one double-digit fantasy scoring effort recorded since Week 5, Etienne is best left on fantasy benches in Week 15. Instead, employ the services of other underwhelming options like Isiah Pacheco (whom we accurately discussed last week) or D’Andre Swift (who has cooled off over the past three weeks).
Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions: One of my leaguemates affectionately refers to St. Brown as “human Velcro.” And he’s not wrong. But what hasn’t stuck is the slot man’s ceiling. St. Brown hasn’t cleared 12.5 fantasy points or found the end zone since Week 11. That’s not horrible, but it is disappointing considering he went over 18 fantasy points seven times between Weeks 2 through 11 and noting the eight-game TD tear he pulled off from Weeks 3 through 11. While the consistency is lovely (10+ fantasy points in 11 of 12 contests, including six straight), many of us had become spoiled by his previous achievements.
Volume appears to be, at least partially, an impediment. St. Brown has managed just two games of 10 or more targets. For reference, 28 players have drawn double-digit looks in at least three outings this season. Another 22 have the same number of games with 10-plus looks. That’s concerning given where St. Brown was drafted back in August.
Thankfully, it doesn’t figure to be an issue this Sunday. St. Brown should rebound nicely in what’s projected to be a close game (-2.5) and high-scoring affair (53.5) versus the Bills. Buffalo has allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to opposing slot receivers and was just gashed by the Rams’ corps this past Sunday. Time for the Sun God to shine again!
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Malik Nabers, WR, New York Giants: Conversely, volume has not been an issue for Nabers. The rookie ranks first at the position in target share (34.4%) and fourth among wide receivers in total looks (11.6 per game). Those opportunities, however, haven’t translated into sweeping peaks of production. Not only has Nabers failed to reach the end zone since Week 3, but he also hasn’t hit 80 yards since Week 4. In fact, his only two 100-yard outings came with massive target totals of 15 and 18 looks. This, of course, points to obvious inefficiencies related to the offense, most specifically the talent under center.
From Daniel Jones to Tommy DeVito to Drew Lock, this isn’t a surprising turn of events. Yet, it is one that needs to be confronted heading into the virtual postseason. Luckily, the scheduling gods have smiled upon Nabers investors, putting forth a series of delectable matchups. Nabers should spike versus Baltimore this Sunday, as the Ravens have given up the third-most fantasy points to opposing receivers. Beyond the weekend, Nabers will face the Falcons (second-most fantasy points allowed to WRs) in Week 16 and then the Colts (fifth-most passing yards allowed to perimeter WRs) in Week 17.
The journey will probably stay messy, but production doesn’t need to be pretty. Consider Nabers a top-10 positional option heading into Sunday’s action … and through the close of 2024.
Jerry Jeudy, WR, Cleveland Browns: On the topic of QB changes, Jameis Winston has seemingly unlocked Jeudy. The 25-year-old’s numbers over the back half of the season are markedly improved from the top of the season. For instance, Jeudy registered a single TD in seven games with Deshaun Watson under center. That number has spiked to 3 TDs with Winston from Weeks 8 through 14. Additionally, Jeudy’s best outputs included 73 receiving yards and 13.2 fantasy points when tied to Watson. Meanwhile, he’s recorded 73 or more yards while additionally clearing 13 fantasy points in all but one game with Winston at the helm. A glow-up five years in the making, Famous Jameis has delivered Jeudy the “he’s all that” treatment.
And that’s not hyperbole. Believe it or not, Jeudy ranks fourth among wideouts in receiving yards, behind Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, and CeeDee Lamb. Jeudy’s remarkable run doesn’t figure to end in Week 15, either.
The Chiefs secondary has struggled since losing Jaylen Watson to a broken ankle in Week 7. In fact, Kansas City’s defense has allowed nearly three more catches and 20 more receiving yards per game since the star CB’s departure. Moreover, opposing WRs have converted on 73% of targets drawn while hauling in 11 receiving scores over just seven contests. Given his electric emergence and the matchup, Jeudy enters the weekend on the WR2/WR3 bubble for fantasy purposes.
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Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons: All the bubbles surrounding Pitts, however, have burst. A prince of fantasy football heartbreak, Pitts has failed to record a double-digit fantasy total in five consecutive outings. In fact, he’s managed only one game of at least 3.0 fantasy points during that span. That’s not terribly surprising given that he’s totaled just 89 yards since Week 9. This statistical slide is partially due to a contraction in snap share, which has shrunk to 58%. For reference, Charlie Woerner has logged a 43% snap share over an identical chunk of time.
Optimistic and/or stubborn investors may view this weekend’s matchup as a “get right” opportunity for the embattled TE. While the Raiders have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to the position, it’s also worth noting that Kirk Cousins has thrown zero TDs and eight INTs over his past four games. Cousins is not wholly to blame for Pitts’ lack of production, but the QB’s scattershot play does help to explain his TE’s lack of efficiency (having caught just 2 of his most recent 11 looks).
The Falcons’ offense would be wise to reestablish Pitts’ red zone presence. However, now is not the time to rely on theoretical coaching. Instead, managers must trust the recent data and move on from Pitts despite the overwhelming potential he continues to frustratingly exude. I mean, honestly, how much longer are you willing to wait?
Follow Liz on social @LizLoza_FF
