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David SchoenfieldMar 24, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
- Covers MLB for ESPN.com
- Former deputy editor of Page 2
- Been with ESPN.com since 1995
One of the beautiful things about baseball is it always surprises us. Every year, no matter how intelligent the various projection systems or how bold the predictions, we see the implausible throughout the MLB season.
Think of some of the shocking individual performances over the past decade:
• Rookie Aaron Judge hitting 52 home runs in 2017 after entering the season as ESPN’s No. 44 prospect — and later breaking Roger Maris’ American League record with 62 home runs in 2022.
• Mookie Betts‘ stunning 10.7-WAR season in 2018, in which he hit .346 and slugged .640 while going 30/30.
• Shohei Ohtani‘s first MVP season in 2021, when he hit 46 home runs and posted a 3.18 ERA in 23 starts.
• Ronald Acuna Jr.’s dazzling 40/70 season while hitting .337 in 2023.
• Chris Sale returning from years of injuries in 2024 to not just win the Cy Young Award but capture the National League pitching Triple Crown (wins, strikeouts, ERA).
All of this makes you wonder: Who might some of the unexpected stars of 2025 be?
To answer this, we ran through 25 simulated MLB seasons using the Out of the Park Baseball game, pulled out a dozen of the most surprising results from players who will have a key impact this year and analyzed what their performance would mean for their team during the upcoming 2025 season.
Stat line: .288/.354/.476, 7.5 WAR
Crow-Armstrong compares in a lot of ways to Jarren Duran, who had a remarkable 2024 with 8.7 WAR for the Boston Red Sox. Both are tooled-up players who can beat you with their speed, defense and bat. Duran had 2.2 WAR in 2023 in 362 plate appearances before his monster 2024 season; Crow-Armstrong had 2.3 WAR in 410 plate appearances in 2024.
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The big difference is Duran had a little better track record at the plate than Crow-Armstrong, who hit just .237/.286/.384 as a rookie last season. But after entering August hitting under .200, Crow-Armstrong had a .284/.337/.466 slash line the final two months and then had a strong spring, hitting over .500 entering the season-opening series in Japan. His advantage over Duran is that he’s four years younger, making a breakout season even more likely than it was for Duran. Crow-Armstrong’s defense in center is already so good that it’s not an exaggeration to say he’ll be the best defensive center fielder in Cubs history. Throw in his baserunning (27-for-30 stealing bases in 2024), and if the bat comes around, he’s going to be a big star.
Lesson for 2025: The Cubs ranked seventh in the NL in runs in 2024, but it’s easy to envision a much better offense in 2025 with Kyle Tucker, improvement from Crow-Armstrong and a positive contribution from rookie third baseman Matt Shaw. While Tucker should be one of the best players in the NL, Crow-Armstrong and Shaw are obviously bigger unknowns. But if Crow-Armstrong — one of my most intriguing players of 2025 — delivers a 7-WAR season, the Cubs will be hard to beat in the NL Central.
Stat line: .305, 36 HRs, 111 RBIs, 7.5 WAR
Well, that’s one way of replacing Juan Soto’s production: with Dominguez delivering an all-time great rookie season. Dominguez has appeared in games for the Yankees over the past two seasons, but his rookie status remains intact for 2025. While he underwhelmed in 67 plate appearances last season (.179/.313/.304), this is a good reminder that Judge hit .179 in 27 games in his 2016 call-up. Young players can surprise — and Dominguez is still just 22 years old. While he hasn’t torn up the minors, he also has always been young for his leagues.
Lesson for 2025: In the bigger picture, this is how the Yankees will have to make up for losing Soto. Dominguez will have to outproduce what Alex Verdugo provided, Paul Goldschmidt will have to outproduce Anthony Rizzo, Cody Bellinger will have to have a solid season, and Anthony Volpe and Austin Wells will have to improve. All this can happen. Oh, and Judge will have to dominate … once again.
Stat line: 2.29 ERA, 5.3 WAR
Speaking of Soto, his addition along with the re-signing of Pete Alonso gives the Mets a chance to have the best offensive team in franchise history. But can the starting rotation hold up? Signing Holmes and turning him into a starter was one of the most interesting moves of the offseason. Indeed, with Sean Manaea out with an oblique strain and Kodai Senga just getting to full strength, Holmes drew the Opening Day starting assignment — which will be his first start in the majors since he was a rookie with the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2018.
Lesson for 2025: Senga will likely start the fourth or fifth game of the season, but until Manaea returns, the Mets will be counting on the likes of David Peterson, Tylor Megill, Griffin Canning and Paul Blackburn as rotation options. That puts a lot of pressure on the Holmes transition to work. Holmes has added a changeup to his sinker/slider/sweeper repertoire, using a grip he learned from former Yankees teammate Luke Weaver, but his ability to induce ground balls could make him an effective starter even without big strikeout rates.
Stat line: .288/.358/.580, 38 HRs, 45 SB, 8.2 WAR
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This is what an 8-WAR season might look like for Elly — and it still might be underrating the stolen base total given he swiped 67 last season. As big as these numbers are, they don’t feel that crazy given De La Cruz’s box of tools, from the speed to the power potential to the fielding metrics. There’s a Bobby Witt Jr. package here (other than the high strikeout rate), and Witt broke out in a huge way last year in his third season, which 2025 will be for De La Cruz. He still hit .259 despite striking out 218 times, so that leaves room for more growth: fewer K’s and perhaps even improving his launch angle to tap into that raw power.
Lesson for 2025: Predictions for the Reds have been all over the place, with those around baseball usually liking them more than the computer projections. That’s human nature, right? We can’t help but watch those De La Cruz highlights and think what can happen if it all comes together. If he does reach superstar status and Hunter Greene repeats what he did last season over 30 starts, the Reds will have two stars who could carry them into the postseason.
Stat line: 53 HRs, 128 RBIs … and the MVP award
That’s right, the Out of the Park Baseball simulator picks an MVP winner and while Judge, Witt and Gunnar Henderson were the usual top candidates, Rooker was the surprise winner in this replay when he bashed 53 home runs. I’m especially partial to this one because, before running these simulations, I made a prediction for our upcoming season preview that Rooker would hit … exactly 53 home runs! This is proof it might happen, right?!
Unrealistic for a player who hit 39 last season? Not necessarily. He hit 24 home runs on the road, and Sacramento’s Sutter Health Park should be much more homer-friendly than the Oakland Coliseum.
Lesson for 2025: Could the A’s surprise in the AL West? It’s a long shot — FanGraphs projects them with the worst rotation in the majors — but they do have an intriguing lineup with Rooker and Lawrence Butler leading the way. Rookie shortstop Jacob Wilson hit .321 and won a batting title in one simulation I did, and Mason Miller gives them a lights-out closer. If the typical contenders stumble — and the Houston Astros, Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers all have issues — maybe the A’s sneak into the division race.
Stat line: 60 home runs
Schwarber’s 60 home runs were the most in the 25 simulations I ran, and as unlikely as that feels, he did hit 46 in 2022 (when he led the NL) and 47 in 2023. The Phillies would happily take a repeat of last season, when he hit .248/.366/.485 with 38 home runs, 110 runs and 104 RBIs from the leadoff spot (the third most ever for a leadoff hitter). The Phillies briefly considered moving Schwarber down in the order in spring training, but it looks like they’ll stick with a Schwarber-Trea Turner–Bryce Harper top three.
Lesson for 2025: Is it now or never for the Phillies? Probably not “never,” but Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto and Ranger Suarez are key free agents after the season, so this could be the final run with this core group that has played more postseason games than any other team the past three seasons. The Phillies were third in the NL in runs in 2024 — their highest ranking since 2010. If Schwarber has another 100/100 season, they should be up there once again — and maybe they can get it done this year.
7. Cal Raleigh, C, Seattle Mariners
Stat line: .253/.330/.552, 43 HRs, 102 RBIs, 6.8 WAR … and MVP honors
It’s almost impossible for a catcher to win MVP these days since they don’t play enough to rack up the high WAR figure needed to impress voters. Indeed, the only catchers to win MVP honors this century were Joe Mauer in 2009 and Buster Posey in 2012. But Raleigh, at least in a season where Judge, Witt and Henderson don’t go off, is an intriguing long shot candidate. He plays a lot (153 games in 2024); he provides premium defense (he won the AL’s Platinum Glove as best overall defender); and he has power (34 home runs, 100 RBIs in 2024).
Raleigh’s swing isn’t geared for a high average — he hit .220 last season and .232 in 2023 — but with a little luck on balls in play, maybe he can hit .253 and enter the MVP conversation. Note that he drove in 100 runs last season despite a lackluster offense around him.
Lesson for 2025: If the Mariners get more from Julio Rodriguez, combined with full seasons from Randy Arozarena and Victor Robles, the offense should be better and provide Raleigh more RBI opportunities. Then, the top of the order can back up Seattle’s strong starting rotation.
Stat line: 18-4, 2.85 ERA, 4.3 WAR
Here’s hoping Mad Max has one more big season in him. He wouldn’t be the first age-40 pitcher to deliver the goods. Since 2000, eight 40-year-olds have posted at least 4 WAR, including Randy Johnson (8.4), Bartolo Colon (5.6), John Smoltz (4.6), Roger Clemens (4.0) and Curt Schilling (4.0). But does Scherzer have it in him?
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While he looked good early in spring training, he’s been bothered by a thumb issue that has flared up around 50 pitches. He told reporters the concern is that it can lead to shoulder problems — the issue already led to the shoulder strain that sidelined him at the end of the 2023 season. Scherzer’s last dominant campaign came in 2022, and he made just nine starts last season, so the projection for 2025 remains wildly unpredictable.
Lesson for 2025: Coming off an 88-loss season and despite adding Andres Gimenez, Anthony Santander and Jeff Hoffman, it feels like the Blue Jays need a lot to go right — including big seasons from Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette and production from Scherzer. If not, this team could look quite different in 2026.
Stat line: .328, 26 HRs, 8.3 WAR
As preposterous as those numbers appear, Harris posted 5.1 WAR as a 21-year-old rookie in 2022 — in just 114 games — when he hit .297/.339/.514 with 19 home runs. He’ll have to stay healthy and tone down the overaggressive approach, but it’s not farfetched to think he could pop out a season like this at age 24. Like Duran a year ago, he also has an all-around skill set that makes him valuable in all phases of the game.
Lesson for 2025: While the Los Angeles Dodgers rightfully own the best projection in the majors, the Braves have just as much upside if the offense bounces back. Harris, Matt Olson, Acuña and Austin Riley are all capable of better numbers (or better health) than last season. Spencer Strider has already pitched in spring training and looks like he’ll be back sometime in April. Spencer Schwellenbach is my favorite Cy Young sleeper. The Braves had the highest win totals in the 25 simulations, twice winning 108 games. It wouldn’t be shocking if they win more games than the Dodgers — with an All-Star-type season from Harris playing a key role.
Stat line: 12-3, 2.32 ERA, 166 IP, 217 K’s
In a four-inning start last Wednesday, deGrom averaged 95.5 mph with his fastball, although he said he wasn’t completely airing it out. It’s probably not realistic to expect the 200-plus innings he delivered from 2017 to 2019, so the above line feels like a best-case scenario the Rangers will take: a decent workload with great results.
Lesson for 2025: Jon Gray (fractured wrist) and Cody Bradford (elbow soreness) are both sidelined. Looking for rotation depth, the Rangers signed free agent Patrick Corbin, who had a 5.62 ERA with the Nationals last season. Can deGrom, a two-time Cy Young winner, recapture his magic in his age-37 season? The Rangers are suddenly a little more desperate for that to happen.
Stat line: .275, 34 HRs, 150 G, 8.0 WAR
Are we allowed to still dream on Buxton? Those 150 games you see above feel like a fantasy, given that his 102 games last season were the second highest of his career. When he has played in recent seasons, however, he’s performed: 3.9 WAR last season, 3.9 WAR in 92 games in 2022 and 4.9 WAR in just 61 games in 2021. That averages to 7.6 WAR over 150 games, so this kind of season isn’t impossible.
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Lesson for 2025: As for the Twins, they won the World Series in the first three simulations I ran. I thought there was a glitch in the game, but then they didn’t make it back to the World Series in the next 22. Those results do speak to the talent on this roster, though: They might have the best 40-man roster in the AL Central, with the potential for a lights-out bullpen with Cole Sands, Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran plus a couple of potential impact position player prospects in Emmanuel Rodriguez and Luke Keaschall.
The rotation isn’t deep, but I like the top three of Pablo Lopez, Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan. And, as always, they just need Buxton, Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis to remain healthy — and Lewis will already begin the season on the injured list with a strained hamstring.
12. Shohei Ohtani, DH/SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Batting: .337, 56 HRs, 143 RBIs, 9.7 WAR
Pitching: 11-3, 3.49 ERA, 2.7 WAR
What might the best of Ohtani look like? Well, if you simply add up his best hitting season (9.2 WAR in 2024) and his best pitching season (6.2 WAR in 2022), you get an unthinkable 15.4 combined WAR. In this simulation, Ohtani won the Triple Crown. That isn’t a stretch of the imagination: Last season, he led the NL in home runs and RBIs and missed the batting title by three points.
Lesson for 2025: It’s the pitching that is the unknown factor for 2025. Ohtani didn’t pitch in a game in spring training and the Dodgers haven’t set a timetable for his potential return, backing off their original plan for a return in May. The problem now will be ramping up while serving as the regular DH. The Dodgers can’t send him down to the minors to collect innings and work out the rust. As a DH, it’s difficult to bring him into the middle of the game as a reliever. That leaves him as a starter, but pitching just one or two innings initially, which burdens the bullpen unless the Dodgers have a tandem starter ready in relief.
Clearly, Ohtani still wants to pitch, acknowledging this is probably his last opportunity to do so. I’m skeptical he’ll pitch enough to win 11 games or rack up 2.7 WAR, but we’ve also learned to never bet against what this man can achieve.
