Betting tips: How do teams bounce back after being shut

Sean Allen, Special to ESPN.comNov 12, 2024, 11:00 AM ET

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The New Jersey Devils are coming off one of those nights where, despite your best efforts, you just have to tip your cap and move on.

In this case, that tip goes to Mackenzie Blackwood, the former Devils goaltender, who was a stonewall in his first return to the Prudential Center since being traded to the San Jose Sharks in 2023. Blackwood faced a barrage of 44 shots from his former teammates, stopping them all in a 1-0 shutout that likely felt as satisfying as any victory in his career.

The irony? The Devils, sitting fifth in the standings, fell to a Sharks team ranked fifth-from-last. These are games where the standings just don’t seem to matter. It was one of those outings where every shot seemed to go Blackwood’s way. But such is hockey: sometimes, the puck just doesn’t cooperate. For New Jersey, that’s exactly what happened – and they walked away with nothing to show for their efforts but a hard lesson in perseverance.

As the Devils prepare to head down to sunny South Florida on Tuesday to face the Florida Panthers, this loss does bring up an interesting question: How do teams typically respond after a shutout? How much of a motivator does a game like that become? I took a dive into historical data to see how teams have bounced back after being blanked.

Going back over the last three NHL seasons, there have been 394 games played by teams following a shutout loss. That’s about 10% of the 3,936 total games in the database, so shutout rebounds are a regular part of the season’s storyline. When a team’s offensive struggles leave them scoreless, does that usually lead to a scoring burst in the following game, as they work to set things right?

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Interestingly, the data shows a subtle shift toward more high-scoring games in these bounce-back situations. Across the full 3,936-game data set, we see 49.21% of games hitting the over on the over/under line – not quite half, but close. When we look specifically at games involving a team that was shut out in their previous game, however, that percentage rises to 52.03%. So, while it’s not a massive shift, it’s enough to suggest that being shutout could indeed serve as a catalyst, pushing teams to play more aggressively or make riskier plays to get on the board.

So, as the Devils head south to face the Panthers, it’s worth keeping an eye on how they come out of the gate. A shutout loss can feel like a dent to a team’s pride, and history suggests that it just might light a spark in the following game. Will New Jersey come in fired up and looking to make a statement, or will the defensive grind of that San Jose game have lingering effects? For fans and bettors alike, these are the kinds of situational trends that can add an extra layer of intrigue to a matchup… and maybe even a slight betting edge.

In any case, the Devils will be looking to put that San Jose game in the rearview mirror, and if history is any guide, we may see a few more red lights behind the net in their next outing.

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All 11 of Sam Reinhart’s goals have come in Panthers wins. Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire

New Jersey Devils at Florida Panthers

7:30 p.m., Amerant Bank Arena

Panthers (-1.5, +165), -145 money line
Devils (+1.5, -200), +125 money line
Total 6.5: (Over Even, Under -120)

The Panthers are heavy home favorites as they come into the game with seven consecutive wins. They are on 2-4 against the spread when they are home favorites this season though. The Devils have only been a road underdog once this season, and they did not beat the spread in that case.

Games involving the Panthers have gone over 11 times and under only four, while the Devils have a 9-8 split. Put me down for the over (+105), given both the in-season track record for these teams and the historical slight boost to teams coming off being shut out.

Be careful with the shot props for the forwards here. The Panthers and Devils allow the fewest shots to opposing forwards so far this season – and the Panthers lead in this statistic by a fair margin. Florida has allowed forwards to average just 14.99 shots per game, while New Jersey allows the second-fewest at 18.11. That does seem to be accounted for in the props though, as only Carter Verhaeghe and Jack Hughes have their shot lines set at 3.5, with most other players getting a 2.5 line. Hughes at under 3.5 shots (-114) is appealing given the Panthers suppression totals, but Verhaeghe’s under has low odds (-160), so I’d take a pass. It might be worth exploring some of the others for a same-game parlay, such as Jesper Bratt under 2.5 shots (+103) or even Sam Reinhart under 2.5 shots (+110).

Betting trends

Let’s do another, very quick, Sports Betting 101 on the over/under.

This one usually needs a lot less explanation as it is very intuitive to even casual sports fans, and hockey only has a couple of quirks to the system. The books will set a line for the expected total goals and your bet is that both teams will combine to go over that total, or under that total. Overtime counts, but shootouts do not. So a 4-3 game that ends on an overtime goal will have a total of seven, but a 4-3 game that ends in the shootout actually has a total of six.

The majority of the time in hockey, the total will be 6.5, but about one-third of games this season have been given a lower, 5.5 total. And it’s that subtle difference makes for the most approachable inroad when it comes to over/under betting.

Over/unders, just like other bets, will also come with odds. The winning bets this season have ranged from as low as -145 to as high as +125, but the majority of paying odds on over/unders settle in the -120 to -130 range.

Looking at the broad spectrum of games this season, we’ve seen 125 games fall under the total while 117 have hit the over. Not exactly a huge difference, but it does show a slight tilt toward the under. However, breaking it down further into games with specific totals (6.5 and 5.5) reveals a bit more insight.

When the total is set at 6.5 goals, the numbers lean more heavily towards the under. So far, 94 games with a 6.5 total have gone under, while 70 games have hit the over. This trend suggests that the 6.5 line might be set a bit high in some cases, offering bettors a slim advantage if they consistently bet the under on these games.

When looking for an advantage, I often lean on the thought experiment of: “What if you decided to put $1 on every single game based on certain criteria?”

If you put $1 on each game with a 6.5 total to go under, you’d be sitting on 94 wins and 70 losses. With the wins earning you $73.43 and losses costing you $70, you’d come out with a small net profit of $3.43. While not huge, it’s still a positive return, and in betting, even small edges can be valuable over time.

If you’d chosen the over in each of those games, the outcome would be less favorable. Winning 70 bets on overs would have brought you $59.03, but the 94 losses would mean you’d be down $94. So, your net here is -$34.97 – a pretty clear signal that betting the over on 6.5 games hasn’t been a profitable strategy so far.

So, the takeaway? If you’re going with a strategy of betting unders on 6.5 games, there’s a small, positive return. But betting overs on the same games is not paying off.

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As you might expect, we get a similar, but opposite tilt in the 5.5 games. Games here have been more likely to go over the line than under. In this case, 47 games have hit the over, while only 31 have gone under. This is a smaller sample, but it shows that lower totals might be set a bit conservatively, making overs the better bet.

Betting $1 on the under in these 5.5 games would have led to 31 wins, earning $27.59, but with 47 losses, you’d be down $47 overall. This adds up to a net loss of $19.41.

On the flip side, betting $1 on the over on these games has been a little more rewarding. Winning 47 times on the over would net you $37.01, while the 31 losses would cost $31. This leads to a positive return of $6.01.

Looking at the data, a couple of trends emerge. First, betting the under on games with a 6.5 total yields a tiny net gain, so it’s slightly profitable. The overs, however, on these 6.5 games have been less reliable, showing a pretty clear loss.

When it comes to games with a 5.5 total, the over seems to have a better track record, with a modest but positive return. Betting the under on these 5.5 games, however, has not been worthwhile. This data suggests a strategy that might involve focusing on unders for higher 6.5 totals and overs for lower 5.5 totals – at least with the patterns we’ve seen so far this season.

So, if you’re setting out to bet on these games, keep these patterns in mind. As always, trends will shift. And you better believe sportsbooks will be looking at the data, too, and making adjustments.

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