ALCS preview: Yanks one game away from the pennant

Oct 19, 2024, 04:51 PM ET

After two thrilling matchups in Cleveland, the New York Yankees are one win away from their first World Series since 2009. The Yankees took two fairly routine games in the Bronx to start this series, but the Cleveland Guardians roared back at Progressive Field: After a shocking walkoff victory on Thursday, the Guardians clawed back from an early deficit to tie the Yankees on Friday but couldn’t hold on in the ninth.

Can the Yankees seal their spot? Will the Guardians push this series back to the Bronx? We have you covered with pregame predictions, live updates and analysis, followed by our takeaways after the final pitch.

New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians, 8:08 p.m. ET

New York leads series 3-1

Pitching matchup: Carlos Rodon (1-1, 4.66) vs. Tanner Bibee (0-1, 3.60 ERA)

Starting lineups

Yankees

Gleyber Torres (R) 2B
Juan Soto (L) RF
Aaron Judge (R) CF
Giancarlo Stanton (R) DH
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L) 3B
Anthony Rizzo (L) 1B
Anthony Volpe (R) SS
Austin Wells (L) C
Alex Verdugo (L) LF

Guardians

Steven Kwan (L) LF
David Fry (R) DH
Jose Ramirez (S) 3B
Lane Thomas (R) CF
Josh Naylor (L) 1B
Jhonkensy Noel (R) RF
Bo Naylor (L) C
Andres Gimenez (L) 2B
Brayan Rocchio (S) SS

What do the Yankees need to do to seal their spot in the World Series?

Jorge Castillo: A solid start from Rodon, for starters. Rodon was excellent in Game 1, holding the Guardians to one run over six innings. He collected nine strikeouts and generated 25 whiffs. Most importantly, he controlled his emotions. He acknowledged that was a problem in his ALDS start against the Kansas City Royals. He has said he learned from that experience, and he’ll need to carry that lesson on to the road for the first time this postseason.

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Bradford Doolittle: The Yankees are a more talented team so while there isn’t any one thing that needs to happen, their ideal formula remains the same: grab an early lead to put the Guardians in a reactive mode, rather than falling into the web of their bullpen when it has a lead to protect. Bibee didn’t fare well in his Game 2 outing and is working on three days’ rest for the first time since his college days. New York can take the air completely out of the Guardians’ balloon with a couple of early runs.

Buster Olney: Just continue to swing big with a lineup built on power. Recently, Giancarlo Stanton has been taking early batting practice on the field off a pitching machine, to see the ball, to see spin — sliders away — and in this round, Aaron Judge joined him on the field. The way Stanton and Judge are going, maybe all of the Yankees will start doing this.

What do the Guardians need to do to stay alive?

Castillo: How about building a comfortable lead against Rodon and staying away from their A-side bullpen? Another close game would mean more stress on their best relievers. We’ve already seen Emmanuel Clase and Cade Smith falter. Rodon was dominant in Game 1, but the Guardians were one of the best teams in baseball against left-handed pitchers during the regular season. They beat Tarik Skubal, the best starter in the majors and a left-hander, in Game 5 of the ALDS. They are capable of putting up a crooked number or two early.

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Doolittle: For Cleveland, it’s the reverse of the Yankees’ plan — and that means Bibee has to come out on point. He seemed rankled over his short outing the first time out, though his numbers wouldn’t have justified a longer leash. A chip on one’s shoulder isn’t always the worst thing in a competitive situation, so if he can string together a few zeros and the Guardians can scratch out a run, then they can get to their bullpen. Getting that run will be the hard part if Jose Ramirez and/or Josh Naylor can’t put together a big game at last.

Olney: Their relievers have to get back to being dominant, because this was the backbone of the Guardians all season long. During the regular season, Emmanuel Clase and Cade Smith faced 559 batters and gave up a total of three homers — and over Games 3 and 4, Clase and Smith gave up three homers to Giancarlo Stanton (2) and Aaron Judge (1). Given the lack of depth in the Cleveland rotation, the Guardians cannot win without excellence from their bullpen.

What has been the most impressive performance for you so far?

Castillo: Since Brad and Buster are about to sing Stanton’s praises, I’ll go with Gleyber Torres. The Yankees’ leadoff hitter has reached base in the first inning in all four games and in seven of the team’s eight postseason games. He singled in Game 1, doubled in Game 2, walked in Game 3, and singled in Game 4. Juan Soto followed that single in Game 4 with a two-run home run to give New York a quick lead. The Yankees have otherwise, for the most part, squandered early scoring opportunities. But Torres has maintained the pressure.

Doolittle: Giancarlo Stanton, without a doubt. Cade Smith doesn’t give up homers. This version of Stanton took him deep. Emmanual Clase doesn’t give up homers. This version of Stanton took him deep. He has plugged the gap opened up by Judge’s production shortfall.

Olney: Stanton has had so many ups and downs in his time with the Yankees, so many injuries, so many waves of talk-show callers begging for the organization to eat his contract and move on. But in the postseason, his performances have been almost uniformly excellent, and in this series, he’s doing his damage against great pitchers. With his home run in Game 4, he tied Babe Ruth and Aaron Judge in career postseason homers; his slugging percentage in the playoffs is over .650. Remarkable.

Who wins tomorrow — and who wins the series?

Castillo: I picked the Yankees in six games so I’ll stick with that. The Guardians find some success against Carlos Rodon in their second try to hold on to hop on a flight to New York for Game 6 on Monday.

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Doolittle: Cleveland wins a low-scoring Game 5, sending the series back to Yankee Stadium. But I still think New York will win the series. The Guardians have been resilient in an October when that descriptor has become a buzzword. That will earn them one more game.

Olney: Think of Tanner Bibee as the Guardian wearing a headlamp, because he is the only player on this team in a position to lead them out of this 3-1 mess. He needs to pitch great and he needs to give them at least five or six innings — and he showed in the regular season he’s capable of doing that. But Soto, Judge and Stanton are all fully activated now, and I’ll be surprised if the Guardians extend this series to six games.