FOXBOROUGH, Mass. — Quick-hit thoughts and notes around the New England Patriots and NFL:
1. Pressure mounts: One obvious question has emerged as the most critical for the Patriots to answer entering Sunday’s home game against the Miami Dolphins (1 p.m. ET, Fox).
Can they reduce the pressure?
According to ESPN Research, the Patriots are allowing a pressure rate of 45.9% in their 1-3 start. If that continues throughout the season, it would easily be the top pressure rate allowed since ESPN began tracking the statistic 16 years ago.
The 2018 Houston Texans (42.4%), 2014 Seattle Seahawks (41%) and 2022 Chicago Bears (39.5%) have recorded the highest pressure rate allowed. Over that same span, only one team — the 2022 Bears — has allowed more pressure through the first four games of a season (48%) than the 2024 Patriots.
Veteran quarterback Jacoby Brissett has been under siege too often, with in-game statisticians recording 40 hits against him. And while head coach Jerod Mayo and offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt say otherwise, it’s hard to imagine they don’t have pressure on their mind as they consider when to turn to rookie quarterback Drake Maye, the No. 3 pick in the draft.
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The Patriots started four different offensive line combinations in their first four games — due to injuries and veteran free agent signing Chukwuma Okorafor not panning out — and will unveil a fifth against the Dolphins after losing center David Andrews to shoulder surgery that is expected to end his season.
Van Pelt, while careful to not make excuses, acknowledged: “It makes it difficult, but that’s the challenge we have this week.”
Brissett expects the Dolphins to test the Patriots to see if they’ve come up with any answers.
“Teams are going to pressure us and we’re very aware of that,” he said. “So now it’s about how do we answer and combat that and move it forward.”
Team sources are hoping that things ultimately will settle down for the line, with potential returns Sunday from left tackle Vederian Lowe (knee) and left guard Michael Jordan (ankle) helping the cause. Five-year veteran Nick Leverett is set to step in for Andrews, and coaches have considered multiple options for the right side of the line which include Mike Onwenu (160th out of 161 eligible linemen in pass block win rate) moving from tackle to guard.
Offensive line coach Scott Peters said it’s the team’s hope to ultimately move Onwenu to right guard permanently, but that is contingent on what they have available at tackle. If that happens this week, it would likely mean first-year player Demontrey Jacobs is the top right tackle.
Patriots OL coach Scott Peters says the team would ultimately like to see Mike Onwenu back at RG.
“In a perfect world, Mike is a guard – really physically. He can play tackle. He’s a rare athlete that way that can move. But if you had your way, you’d like to see Mike at guard,… pic.twitter.com/bvG9bUtV0V
— Mike Reiss (@MikeReiss) October 4, 2024
Then there is the issue of pass catchers getting open. The Patriots have the least productive wide receiver group in the NFL in terms of receptions (29) and yards (230). The 230 receiving yards from wide receivers are 157 fewer than any other team and the fewest by any team’s wide receivers in the first four games since the 2008 Browns.
Part of that ties to the offensive line struggles, but in the times that Brissett has had time to survey the field, there aren’t always open targets. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, the Patriots have faced pressure 51.6% of the time on plays in which Brissett has had 2.5 seconds or more with the ball.
Of course, there are also times Brissett can unload more quickly, which relates to Van Pelt’s point that “it takes all 11 to be successful.”
But there’s no question where it all starts for the Patriots — the offensive line.
“We haven’t been satisfied with the production and performance, and everyone is aware of that,” Peters said. “For our development with the guys we have in there, they’re working hard and improving. If we can keep guys healthy, and get continuity, then you start to definitely see gains.”
2. Gibson’s mindset: Fifth-year running back Antonio Gibson will start over Rhamondre Stevenson, with Mayo saying a demotion for Stevenson (fumbles in each of the first four games) makes a stronger statement to the team on the importance of ball security. As for Gibson, he is focusing on staying within himself.
“Just keep doing what I’ve been doing and not let the moment get too big. I’m not treating it any different even though there may be more reps,” said Gibson, who has played 71 snaps compared to Stevenson’s 159.
Gibson’s locker is two stalls away from Stevenson. He expressed support for him, acknowledging he went through a similar run of fumbles earlier in his career with Washington, while encouraging him to stay off social media.
3. Third-down woes: The Patriots’ defense ranks 31st on third down, with opponents converting first downs 51.8% of the time. This is a significant downturn from 2023 when they finished seventh in the NFL (36.2%). Coordinator DeMarcus Covington said it’s been self-inflicted wounds by not synching up the rush and coverage.
Specific to the rush, which has too often allowed quarterbacks out of the pocket, Covington said: “I don’t think there is a question we are winning the one-on-one rush. We’re getting back there. … But it’s the trap rush as a unit. You have to collapse and trap as a unit.”
As one defender said, the Patriots’ goal this week has been to make “four [rushers] equal one.”
Conversely, the Dolphins are the NFL’s No. 1 defense on third down, with opponents converting 23.8% of the time.
4. Maye update: Quarterbacks coach T.C. McCartney said Friday that their rookie quarterback is “just where we thought he’d be” at this point and noted that he continues to improve. As for when the Patriots might ultimately turn to Maye — assuming Brissett continues to get up from some or the crunching hits he’s taken — coaches are keeping that part of their often cited “developmental plan” under wraps.
Mayo might have provided a hint this past week when he mentioned that the team’s one victory, a 16-10 decision over the Bengals in Week 1, was “unsustainable” from the standpoint that the team needs to be able to score more than 16 points on a regular basis. So if the points don’t rise over the next couple weeks, that could be the catalyst for change.
5. Safety squeeze: The Patriots were dangerously thin at safety this past week in practice, with Kyle Dugger (ankle) sidelined and fellow starter Jabrill Peppers (shoulder) limited and ending the week feeling his health hadn’t improved as much as desired. Peppers had a similar experience in Week 1 against Cincinnati and rallied to play, so he was hoping for a similar occurrence but it didn’t happen (he was ruled out Saturday).
Thus, the return of second-year safety/linebacker Marte Mapu from injured reserve comes at an important time for the Patriots, with Covington, the defensive coordinator, saying: “He’s a smart player, like a coach in the classroom the way he prepares. He’s been like that since I had him at the Senior Bowl.” Mapu, a 2023 third-round pick from Sacramento State, is one candidate to slide right into a starting role.
6. They said it: “Everyone thought it could be a lot more creative. I don’t think you see a lot of creativity because it’s hard the way balls are flying in different ways — you’re getting kicks in the middle, right, left, and it happens really fast. And because it happens really fast, it’s hard for your team to adjust because you’re only five yards away [from the opponent]. You don’t have time to think any more, so keeping things simple is my biggest thing. Be good at being simple.” — Patriots special teams coordinator Jeremy Springer, on initial impressions of the NFL’s new kickoff rule
7. Hunter’s new meeting: With tight end Hunter Henry being elevated to captain last week after the Patriots lost Andrews to a likely season-ending shoulder injury, his Thursday afternoon schedule just got a bit busier. The weekly captain’s meeting with Mayo has been taking place Thursdays at 3:30 p.m., a change from past years when it was early Friday morning.
8. Pharms gesture: Mostly every player has someone to thank for unwavering support in their career journey, and for second-year Patriots defensive lineman Jeremiah Pharms Jr., he shared one of his most influential supporters when arriving at last week’s game against the 49ers. Pharms donned a hoodie that remembered the life of his uncle Eugene Darden.
“That was a very meaningful moment for me, because he was a die-hard 49ers fan and he always believed in me,” said Pharms, whose path to the NFL included stops at Sacramento City College, Delta Junior College, Friends University, the Wichita Force of the Champions Indoor Football League and Pittsburgh Maulers of the USFL.
9. No. 1 pick?: Sunday’s game between the Dolphins (21%) and Patriots (17%) features the teams with the current top odds to land the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL draft, according to ESPN Analytics. ESPN draft analyst Field Yates rates Colorado receiver/cornerback Travis Hunter as the No. 1 prospect and Texas offensive tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. as No. 4, which is notable considering two of the Patriots’ top needs are receiver and offensive tackle.
10. Did you know?: The Patriots, who are seeking to avoid a 1-4 start for the second straight season, haven’t started 1-4 or worse in consecutive seasons since 1992-93.
