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Alaina Getzenberg, ESPNOct 5, 2024, 06:00 AM ET
- Alaina Getzenberg is a staff writer who covers the Buffalo Bills and the NFL. She joined ESPN in 2021. Alaina was previously a beat reporter for the Charlotte Observer and has also worked for CBS Sports and the Dallas Morning News. She is a graduate of the University of California, Berkeley. You can follow her via Twitter @agetzenberg.
ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — What would success look like for the Buffalo Bills‘ offense in 2024?
The simple answer, as it has been for the past few years, is winning games through the efforts of a certain quarterback named Josh Allen.
Allen is off to the best start to a season in his career, and firmly in the far-too-early MVP conversation. He’s leading a Bills offense with an almost entirely new wide receivers room and new full-time offensive coordinator Joe Brady. Brady used a full offseason to implement his scheme — one that has focused on adjusting to the defense the Bills face and spreading the ball around.
“[Allen’s] been very consistent, consistent in his performance on the field, consistent in his approach, consistent in his just willingness to take what the defense is giving him,” coach Sean McDermott said after Week 3. “… Season’s young, and so I’m looking forward to how he’s going to continue to do that. He’ll be defended a little bit different week to week. But you know, his just, his maturation … His development has been fun to watch.”
However, a team is more than its quarterback. The Bills’ future has been a lingering question surrounding the team in the aftermath of sending the their No. 1 wide receiver to the Houston Texans. For four seasons, Stefon Diggs led the way in every receiving category and was the go-to target.
Yet, through the first three games the Bills’ offense largely looked unstoppable, finding success on the ground and through the air. In Week 4, however, nothing seemed to go right in a 35-10 loss to the Baltimore Ravens.
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Now, against a Texans team — and Diggs — that is also 3-1, the Bills will have a chance to rebound on Sunday (1 p.m. ET, CBS).
The success of this Bills offense is first and foremost on Allen continuing a high level of play, but it is also in part to the team’s offensive philosophy: ‘everybody eats’ — everyone plays each snap like they will be the target.
“When you got Josh at quarterback it makes life a lot easier, right,” Brady said. “We’ve found different ways to win football games so far, and that’s what I’ve been pleased about, and it makes life a lot easier with that mindset of, hey, if we have to go into a game and run the football to win, we’ve shown the ability to do that. And if we have to come out throwing, we’ve shown the ability that we can do that.”
‘Everybody eats’ didn’t get the job done against Baltimore. Brady took significant responsibility for that, describing it as not a bad plan for the game, but that his playcalling was “bad.” Allen also took responsibility for the loss.
“I think a lot of it was self-inflicted,” Allen said. “They came out, had a great plan, had a great rush plan, they got to me a couple times and there’s a few times that I probably could have gotten the ball outta my hands a little bit quicker and thrown the ball away.”
The departures to the offense since last season extended beyond Diggs. Center Mitch Morse was released after four seasons in Buffalo — Connor McGovern has taken over at the position — along with wide receiver Gabe Davis in free agency. Both are now with the Jacksonville Jaguars.
The changes haven’t slowed Allen. He’s leading the league in total QBR (82) and has yet to throw an interception — the first time he has done so through the first four games of a year. He is a game away from tying the longest streak of his career (2019). The lone notable problem area for Allen this season is fumbles, losing two of three, including one on an ill-fated trick play vs. the Ravens. Despite the Week 4 performance, he is third in total touchdowns (nine). Six different players have caught a touchdown pass, tied with the Vikings for most in the NFL. Last year, 10 different Bills caught touchdowns over the course of the season.
Clear early connections for Allen have been found in wide receiver Khalil Shakir — who is dealing with an ankle injury and isout for the game vs. the Texans — and tight end Dalton Kincaid. Rookie Keon Coleman has had opportunities downfield and has made multiple impressive catches already. The highest target share on the team is Shakir at 19.4%, which ranks 46th.
When Diggs was in Buffalo, he averaged the third-highest target share in the league (28.1%).
“It’s fun cause any given play you don’t really know where the ball’s going,” Bills tight end Dawson Knox said. “It’s fun seeing everybody get involved, just so much versatility on this offense, so many weapons that really makes a defense game plan for everybody, so the more touches we can get around like the roster, the better off we’re going to be.”
The early returns of this Bills offense have also shown success in running the ball and yards after catch, both of which support Allen.
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Running back James Cook is eighth in yards before contact per rush (3.3) — a credit to the offensive line as well — and already has a career high in rushing touchdowns (3).
The Bills rank sixth in yards after catch with 6.4 yards, up from 5.1 (22nd) last season, led by Shakir.
In order for this Bills team to succeed without that clear No. 1 receiver, players like Kincaid, Shakir and Coleman will have to play more of a role. Everybody has to eat — opportunities will come to a variety of players as the season goes along. That goes for WR Curtis Samuel too, who will likely get his chance to eat this Sunday with Shakir out of the lineup.
The key to leaving Week 4’s loss in the past requires fostering connections between Allen and as many options on offense as possible heading into Houston and beyond.
“I think we’ve shown the ability to be in big personnel and run it and throw it. We’ve shown the ability to be in small personnel and throw it and run it. Run game, play action, drop back, quarterback run game — there’s just a lot of opportunities we have to do different things throughout the game,” Allen said. “… The ability to at any different time throw it to somebody else and they be our first read, it’s very fun.”
