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Liz Loza, ESPNOct 2, 2024, 12:47 PM ET
Fantasy football is a passion for many. Sometimes that passion pushes fantasy managers to make emotional decisions even when the data suggests otherwise. Each week during the 2024 NFL season, Liz Loza will attempt to strike a balance between what the data states and what the heart wants. This is called Facts vs. Feelings.
Hello from the 06010! It’s been a breathless handful of days spent hitting marks, reconnecting with colleagues, and trying to stay awake during “Monday Night Football.” The weather has been stunning and the leaves have begun to turn, sending a shiver of autumnal excitement through the whole of Bristol, Connecticut.
It’s endearing, really. Nearly every single conversation I’ve engaged in has included mention of the clement conditions and the rustling foliage. East Coasters adorably relish in noting their pleasantly pastoral surroundings, particularly when speaking with out-of-towners. In fact, two of my editors (Hello, Pierre; hello, Keith) and our boss (whose proper title I can never remember and who is probably reading this sentence with increasing panic … hello, Andrew) have gently asked if, perhaps, the charming climes might inspire this week’s column. While bucolic bliss is certainly contagious, that wasn’t the plan.
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Instead, I had wanted to talk about the chill-provoking power of genuine confidence. Either that or wings. Because who doesn’t like a good drums vs. flats debate (drums, every time, obv)? Yet, as I sit in my 317-square-foot hotel room and stare out the window beyond the power lines and parking lots, I find myself delighted by the brightly dappled tree line. They have, certainly, inspired much more than a weekly fantasy football think-piece. So, no, the vista is not lacking. But my timing is.
My thought was to pause on the leaf-peeping until closer to harvest. It’s too early right now. The views will be even more spectacular when I’m back in 3½ weeks. All of the green will have given way to gold and rust and amber. Instagram will be awash with boomerangs of falling foliage. We will be in peak pumpkin spice season then. Best to wait for perfection … rather than lean into a young situation that has yet to fully mature, right?
Maybe. Maybe not. What if there’s an unforeseen windstorm and the trees are bare by Halloween? Or something more noteworthy happens during my next trip, prompting me to switch course? Then again, everything could unfold as I’ve predicted and I’ll end up kicking myself for not being more patient. I have no idea. I just know that right now these leaves are making me smile, so I’m going to write about them.
I went through a similar process before flexing Terry McLaurin over Tee Higgins in Week 4. The results weren’t as satisfying, however, when I opted to bench Justin Fields in favor of Kyler Murray. Though, my preemptive stashing of Kareem Hunt appears to have been a wild stroke of genius. Until next week when Carson Steele regains his stranglehold on the Chiefs’ backfield.
The point is, we can split hairs and trade “what ifs” attempting to arrive at the absolute bull’s-eye of a decision … and it can still fall apart in the final moments of a fourth quarter. We do not toil at a foolproof hobby. Even in the world of sports — in which a definitive winner and loser exists — asterisks and footnotes provide maddening wrinkles. Ask Jared Goff. He completed 18 of 18 pass attempts, setting the NFL record for the most completions without an interception, but because his total attempts didn’t reach 20, his passer rating is N/A.
Perfection is not worth chasing because it does not exist. Feeling resolved about that fact, however, makes room for a breadth of seizable (and hopefully satisfying) opportunities.
Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals: As someone who non-ironically screamed Sugar Ray’s “Every Morning” into a hairbrush before school, I dig Burrow’s frosted tips. What I’m less into is his lack of fantasy output. Tee Higgins’ absence certainly prevented Joe’s cool from coalescing. Still, Burrow has managed a single outing inside the top-eight fantasy producers at the position through four weeks. Obviously, his lack of rushing upside (12 carries, QB19) caps his ceiling. Yet, the ambition of managers drafting him as the QB6 has not been validated via his passing. A matchup versus the Ravens doesn’t figure to assist in the endeavor.
While Baltimore’s defense ranks in the middle of the league in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs, the Nest has given up 60% of that production in the final 11 minutes of games. More specifically, the Ravens have prevented opposing passers from throwing TDs (while forcing two INTs) through the first three quarters; all four passing touchdowns they have surrendered this season have occurred during the fourth quarter. It’s worth noting that the QB trend was addressed, as Josh Allen was held out of the end zone in Week 4. Additionally, Baltimore has held QBs to a total of 38 rushing yards, allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points from rushing.
Burrow’s efforts figure to remain equal parts prodigious and strenuous heading into the weekend. With Jordan Love returning to health and Justin Fields facing a banged-up Dallas defense, even in a bye week, the Bengals signal-caller is likely to fall outside of the top-10 fantasy producers at the position. Investors may have to wait until the team’s Week 6 outing at MetLife before reaping the expected rewards.
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Josh Jacobs, WR, Green Bay Packers: It’s not you, it’s Matt LaFleur. The Packers head coach and playcaller has a long history of favoring an equitably shared backfield, dating back to 2018. It’s hard to fathom, but Derrick Henry garnered just 16 more touches than Dion Lewis (who was 28 years old at the time) when LaFleur was calling plays in Tennessee. That trend has continued throughout his tenure in Green Bay, as LaFleur employed the dreaded “running back by committee” during the Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams and AJ Dillon eras.
Even after Jones was released and Jacobs was added, LaFleur appeared set on keeping the former Raider fresh. Remember, the Packers drafted MarShawn Lloyd in the third round while keeping Dillon on the roster. Both Lloyd and Dillon have been banged-up, so it shouldn’t be too much of a surprise that Emanuel Wilson has been thrown into the mix. Jacobs’ 32 carries in Week 2 suggested the vet might retain an every-down role. It just so happens, however, that Wilson was still managing a preseason hip injury at the time. The second-year player’s involvement has increased considerably since then, as he’s registered just 20 fewer snaps and six fewer touches than Jacobs over the past two weeks.
The workload figures to wash out as a 60-40 split, favoring Jacobs. His role in the passing game and near the red area, undoubtedly, provides his investors with a keen advantage over Wilson. The matchup in Los Angeles should additionally work to Jacobs’ advantage this particular week, as the Rams have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing RBs. Overall, while Jacobs’ floor is plenty sturdy, his ceiling is quite capped. Plan accordingly.
Kenneth Walker III, RB, Seattle Seahawks: Fresh off a two-game absence, Walker sent it in prime time. The 23-year-old rumbled his way to 116 scrimmage yards, testing a Detroit run defense that had regularly schooled opposing rushers. Averaging 6.7 yards per carry, Walker chiseled his way past and through the Lions’ elite ground defense, which allowed the most fantasy points (33) they’ve allowed to rushers over their past 50 games. Walker’s 80 rushing yards are, in fact, the most gained by a running back facing Detroit all season; no other player has hit even 70.
While Walker certainly earned his flowers, Seahawks offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb deserves his, too. Seattle’s run game is humming, regardless of the team’s starting RB. Walker cleared 100 scrimmage yards in Weeks 1 and 4, but Zach Charbonnet posted top-eight fantasy RB numbers when subbing in for Walker during Weeks 2 and 3. As such, Walker projects as a top-12 fantasy play versus the Giants in Week 5. However, Charbonnet needs to stay on benches as an uber-valuable insurance policy.
The Anthony Richardson-Michael Pittman Jr. connection hasn’t left us with any good feelings about the receiver’s season, but the fact is that there were signs of improvement prior to Richardson’s latest injury. Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
Michael Pittman Jr., WR, Indianapolis Colts: Natalie Portman and Hayden Christensen displayed more chemistry in “Phantom Menace” than Pittman did with his quarterback over the first three weeks of 2024. Rather than leave the issue to improvisational antics, however, the duo worked to bridge the gap, as evidenced by their connection early in Week 4. Anthony Richardson looked to Pittman on three of the receiver’s four routes run prior to his early exit from the contest. In fact, two of Pittman’s six total grabs — and 60 of his 113 yards — were recorded before Joe Flacco entered the game.
Certainly, Flacco’s predilection towards putting the ball in the air figures to keep Pittman producing. An early return from Richardson, however, doesn’t portend a precipitous drop in Pittman’s points potential. Even so, the 26-year-old should benefit from a matchup at Jacksonville. Ryan Nielsen’s unit has given up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers (41.8). Additionally, the Jaguars have gifted seven wideouts with at least 10 fantasy points in just four games. Of those receivers, five have managed 16-plus points (with Tyreek Hill registering 26 and Nico Collins topping 33). The ceiling may not stretch high, but Pittman’s top-24 floor should be restored in Week 5.
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Christian Kirk, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars: Managers were understandably baffled by Kirk’s limited usage at the top of the season, especially given Evan Engram‘s absence entering Week 2. Though, looking back, Engram’s injury occurred so near to kickoff that a pro-Kirk game plan was probably difficult to install. Regardless, tweaks have been made and the 27-year-old has reemerged as Trevor Lawrence‘s go-to receiver.
Kirk has led the squad in targets, drawing 22 looks over his past two efforts. His deployment via the slot has additionally increased, as he’s logged a slot share above 55% in every game since Week 1. This has created a symbiotic relationship with Brian Thomas Jr., allowing the rookie to work a speed complement on the outside, which has, in turn, boosted the former LSU Tiger’s opportunities (nine looks in back-to-back efforts).
Admittedly, the offensive recipe has yet to earn the Jags a dub. Still, an outing versus a banged-up Colts defense (which was missing slot corner Kenny Moore II in Week 4) could push the project toward realization. At the very least, it figures to provide Kirk with flex appeal in PPR formats.
Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers: Aiyuk has so far this season been the quintessential “Facts vs. Feelings” player, in that the facts don’t align with the feelings in a bigly kind of way. I was willing to chalk the first three weeks up to rust, but his showing versus New England is beyond concerning. Of course, Patriots corner Christian Gonzalez exists as one of the league’s brightest rising defensive stars, but a pass catcher of Aiyuk’s stature (and salary) should be capable of exploiting other weaknesses.
On a day when Brock Purdy threw the ball just 27 times — and with all of his pass catchers in uniform — Aiyuk’s volume (five targets) isn’t particularly brow-furrowing. Rather, his inefficiency is what’s bringing early spooky-season vibes. Aiyuk has registered a catch rate of just 52% this season, and has posted 96 total yards in catching seven of 15 balls over his past two outings (which ranks 75th of 86 qualified WRs).
It appears as though reliability and cooperation are being rewarded, as Jauan Jennings has led the team in receiving on three separate occasions (Weeks 1, 3 and 4). For what it’s worth, two of those outings occurred while Deebo Samuel Sr., Aiyuk and George Kittle were all on the field. Jennings doesn’t project to exist as a major fantasy factor this coming weekend, but his success does dampen the chances of an Aiyuk bounce-back. Despite drawing a third consecutive “plus” matchup, Aiyuk’s lack of dependability pushes him outside of the top 20 potential producers at the position in Week 5.
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Brock Bowers, TE, Las Vegas Raiders: Fantasy managers aren’t the only players maddened by the Raiders. Davante Adams‘ future with the team may be this week’s real-life narrative, but Bowers’ usage remains a concern for enthusiasts of the virtual game. The rookie’s volume, production and routes run have dwindled since converting all nine of his looks for 98 yards in Week 2. While his 5 fantasy points (meagerly delivered on a day in which Adams was sidelined) felt like a fantasy gut punch, the fact remains that, prior to Week 4, he existed as the only tight end to record more than 7 points in each outing of the young season. It’s additionally worth noting that this recent dud occurred against an impressive Browns defense. Also, the Raiders tried to creatively involve Bowers, gifting him with a rushing attempt.
Those opportunities should deliver more punch at Mile High. Denver’s secondary (take a bow, Pat Surtain II) may be elite versus wide receivers and solid when facing opposing running backs (T-10th), but the Broncos are truly mid (T-18th) against tight ends. That means the best way to exploit the matchup is over the middle of the field. There is a chance Surtain could attempt to cover Bowers, but given the landscape, we can’t afford to catastrophize a getable good thing that’s right in front of us. Lock in Bowers as a top-10 TE and live for the now.
Follow Liz on social @LizLoza_FF.
