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Sean Allen, Special to ESPN.comSep 30, 2024, 11:00 AM ET
- Sean Allen is a fantasy analyst for ESPN.com. He was the 2008 and 2009 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Hockey Writer of the Year. You can tweet him @seanard.
There is a reason they are called power plays.
For the top 150 skaters in fantasy scoring last season, power-play points accounted for 30.8% of their total points (regular points, not fantasy). That percentage has ebbed and flowed between 28.0% and 32.3% across the past 10 years. So saying one-third of the points the skaters on your fantasy team will score will come on the power play is pretty close to an accurate statement. For reference, power-play points accounted for 22.2% of all points league-wide last season.
If you look at forwards and defense separately, the results change a little. The top 60 D scored 27.1% of their points on the advantage, while the top 100 forwards collected 31.6%.
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The takeaway here is that power-play points are exceedingly important when it comes to fantasy value. To maximize your team’s scoring potential, you need to prioritize players who not only play on the power play but are crucial to their team’s top unit.
Take the top five players in power-play ice time for every team last season and call them the “first units,” while calling players ranked No. 6 through 10 the “second units.” (No, this isn’t exactly accurate, but a quick way to make a point.) The “first units” accounted for 3,396 power-play points, while the “second units” managed just 905 power-play points. That’s a massive disparity and a reason why the top unit is so important.
Shifts in power-play roles can create opportunities to draft undervalued players. Identifying these power-play producers early can be the difference between a good fantasy season and a championship-winning one.
Let’s give a quick snapshot of how each team’s man advantage is shaping up for the coming season. The forecasted statistics are a simple exponential smoothing of each team’s statistics from the past three seasons, just to give an idea of the current state of affairs.
We also have a rundown of the team’s top power-play options from last season. We are only listing players who earned at least 50% of their team’s total power-play minutes.
And finally, we’ll recap who might be in and who might be out for the top unit, based on offseason movement.
Jump to a team:
ANA | BOS | BUF | CGY | CAR | CHI | COL | CBJ | DAL | DET | EDM | FLA | LA | MIN | MTL | NSH | NJ | NYI | NYR | OTT | PHI | PIT | SJ | SEA | STL | TB | TOR | UT | VAN | VGK | WSH | WPG
Forecasted team power-play stats: 42 goals in 235 opportunities: 17.9%
Team leaders in 2023-24:
Personnel changes: Olen Zellweger and Pavel Mintyukov could push Fowler for quarterback minutes, while Cutter Gauthier should make a case for top-unit duty.
Notes: A successful season for the Ducks hinges on their young players stepping up. While veterans like Vatrano, Fowler, and Strome currently lead in power-play points, expect Gauthier, Zellweger, and Carlsson to emerge. This shift might result in a dip for the veterans, but the youngsters may not shine enough to make a significant fantasy impact overall.
Forecasted team power-play stats: 55 goals in 252 opportunities: 21.9% (15th)
Team leaders in 2023-24:
Personnel changes: Elias Lindholm will take on a role on the top unit, while van Riemsdyk is gone as a PP specialist.
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Notes: There’s a chance for whoever secures the second-line winger spot alongside Brad Marchand to also earn time on the top power-play unit. This could be Morgan Geekie or rookie Fabian Lysell. Pavel Zacha may be pushed off the top unit to accommodate Lindholm but could still serve as the fourth forward on the power play.
Forecasted team power-play stats: 49 goals in 238 opportunities: 20.6% (20th)
Team leaders in 2023-24:
Personnel changes: Skinner is out and JJ Peterka is his likely replacement.
Notes: Dahlin’s power-play assists plummeted from 26 in 2022-23 to 14 last season, while Thompson’s power-play points dropped from 34 to 16. These two are crucial for the Sabres’ success on the advantage. If they can bounce back, expect significant totals from their teammates.
Forecasted team power-play stats: 45 goals in 252 opportunities: 17.9% (29th)
Team leaders in 2023-24:
Personnel changes: None that are likely to impact on the power play.
Notes: The five players mentioned are likely to comprise the top unit again this season. With a year of chemistry built among most of them, we can expect their totals to rise, potentially enhancing their fantasy value even further.
Forecasted team power-play stats: 56 goals in 244 opportunities: 22.9% (12th)
Team leaders in 2023-24:
Personnel changes: Guentzel and Teravainen are gone from the leaders. We should see Andrei Svechnikov and Martin Necas take on a larger roles. Shayne Gostisbehere could also have a first-unit presence as a PP quarterback specialist.
Notes: Burns has become a shadow of his former self on the power play. With Gostisbehere racking up 29 power-play points with the Red Wings last season, there’s hope he’ll take on a specialist role with the Canes. If that happens, Burns could become a liability for fantasy rosters, while Gostisbehere might have a shot at setting a new career high in special-teams points.
Forecasted team power-play stats: 41 goals in 237 opportunities: 17.4% (30th)
Team leaders in 2023-24:
Personnel changes: Newcomers Tyler Bertuzzi and Teuvo Teravainen both have a good shot at PP time, while a healthy Taylor Hall is a lock for the first unit.
Notes: From last season’s top five, Bedard and Jones are solidified as key players. Kurashev is likely to stick with Bedard, making him a safe choice as well. The competition heats up with Hall, Bertuzzi, Teravainen and Reichel all vying for spots. If Bedard continues to elevate his game, this power play could become a significant driver of fantasy value.
Forecasted team power-play stats: 66 goals in 272 opportunities: 24.3% (5th)
Team leaders in 2023-24:
Personnel changes: Gabriel Landeskog is expected back at some point this season, but we have no timetable.
Notes: With Nichushkin out for at least the first third of the season, it’s uncertain if Landeskog will be ready to step in. Casey Mittelstadt is poised for a larger role, making him a strong candidate to join this powerhouse unit. Nikolai Kovalenko will also be in the mix as a potential replacement.
Forecasted team power-play stats: 38 goals in 218 opportunities: 17.4% (31st)
Team leaders in 2023-24:
Personnel changes: Offseason signings Sean Monahan and James van Riemsdyk are in the mix as veterans, while Kent Johnson and Adam Fantilli are internal candidates for more time.
Notes: Aside from Werenski – and possibly Marchenko – it’s tough to say anyone else is guaranteed a spot on the top unit. Johnson is definitely one to watch; his creativity with the puck could really shine with more space to operate.
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Forecasted team power-play stats: 58 goals in 245 opportunities: 23.9% (6th)
Team leaders in 2023-24:
Personnel changes: Pavelski has retired and the competition for his replacement will consist of players who were around last season.
Notes: One of the league’s best units could become even stronger with the consistent addition of Johnston’s youthful energy. Success here might elevate Heiskanen to new heights. And don’t overlook the Stars’ second power-play unit, featuring Thomas Harley, Tyler Seguin and Matt Duchene as a solid foundation.
Forecasted team power-play stats: 63 goals in 273 opportunities: 23.1% (10th)
Team leaders in 2023-24:
Personnel changes: The team leader in power play points is gone, but another third-pairing power-play specialist is on the roster in Erik Gustafsson. Vladimir Tarasenko also brings a veteran presence to the advantage that could replace the departed Perron.
Notes: If the Red Wings deploy Gustafsson as a specialist, similar to how they used Gostisbehere last season, he could emerge as a surprise fantasy asset. Another name to watch is Lucas Raymond, who should play a significant role this season despite not being among last season’s team leaders.
Forecasted team power-play stats: 71 goals in 251 opportunities: 28.4% (1st)
Team leaders in 2023-24:
Personnel changes: The league’s most dominant unit remains intact.
Notes: A dominant, top-heavy power play. No notes. However, it’s worth noting that Viktor Arvidsson or Jeff Skinner could be the next players up if an injury occurs.
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Forecasted team power-play stats: 63 goals in 268 opportunities: 23.4% (9th)
Team leaders in 2023-24:
Personnel changes: The Panthers couldn’t afford to keep Montour or Oliver Ekman-Larsson, so Aaron Ekblad might be back to power-play duties as he was a few years ago.
Notes: While Ekblad will likely get the first opportunity, Gustav Forsling could sustain his breakout if given the chance. The heavy reliance on this top unit is expected to persist, so anticipate more fantasy value from the power play for Reinhart and Tkachuk.
Forecasted team power-play stats: 54 goals in 255 opportunities: 21.4% (17th)
Team leaders in 2023-24:
Personnel changes: The same five are likely running out for the Kings on the advantage again this season, with no offseason movement offering obvious competition.
Notes: The Kings could use a boost in their power-play efficiency, which might make them more receptive to changes. Keep an eye on Brandt Clarke, who is on a trajectory to gradually take over more power-play time for the Kings, especially with Doughty set to miss at least the first month of the season.
Forecasted team power-play stats: 62 goals in 261 opportunities: 23.8% (8th)
Team leaders in 2023-24:
Personnel changes: No roster changes are likely to push this unit.
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Notes: Faber didn’t take over as the QB until partway through his rookie campaign, so his ceiling is still quite high. While the top unit is largely locked in, Marco Rossi and Jared Spurgeon will be on the fringes, eager to seize any opportunity that arises. Zuccarello needs this to be part of his job for his overall value, as he led all fantasy-relevant forwards with 52.4% of his total points on the advantage.
Forecasted team power-play stats: 44 goals in 245 opportunities: 17.9% (27th)
Team leaders in 2023-24:
Personnel changes: Patrik Laine will be in the mix, along with a healthy Kirby Dach. Lane Hutson could challenge Matheson for power-play time if he starts the season strong enough to be a Calder contender. That would be very bad news for Matheson, who earned 45.2% of his points on the advantage.
Notes: Suzuki, Caufield and Slafkovsky are set to dominate at least 70% of the Canadiens’ power-play time again. If Laine resets and performs well, he could elevate the unit into the league’s top half, boosting everyone’s power-play points. Matheson is likely to continue as the primary quarterback, but Hutson represents the future, and he may already be ready to contribute.
Forecasted team power-play stats: 55 goals in 259 opportunities: 21.2% (19th)
Team leaders in 2023-24:
Personnel changes: Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault are massive additions to this Predators advantage, potentially earmarking it for top 10 in the league.
Notes: With Stammer firing pucks from his office, expect good things for this unit but especially for Marchessault, who had just 17 power play points on a weaker Vegas unit last season. Conversely, Nyquist’s value will take a hit with no room on the top unit, likely pushing him off fantasy rosters. If this unit doesn’t click, it could negatively affect Stamkos’ value, as he earned 48.1% of his points on the power play last season.
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Forecasted team power-play stats: 55 goals in 231 opportunities: 23.8% (7th)
Team leaders in 2023-24:
Personnel changes: A healthy Dougie Hamilton returns, while Luke Hughes will start the season injured.
Notes: The Devils need Meier to step up on the power play; he was a dominant force with the Sharks but hasn’t shown his potential as a Devil yet. Hamilton could also have a big bounce-back season if he starts strong and secures his role as quarterback. If the unit isn’t firing on all cylinders when Luke Hughes returns, Hamilton will get challenged.
Forecasted team power-play stats: 42 goals in 231 opportunities: 18.5% (26th)
Team leaders in 2023-24:
Personnel changes: Anthony Duclair arrives to challenge for a spot on this otherwise solidified unit.
Notes: The power play is essential for the Islanders’ fantasy value, as they rank in the bottom third of the league in scoring without those goals. Palmieri enjoyed a fantasy rebound last season largely due to the power play, but he may be the most vulnerable if Duclair or another player steps up.
Forecasted team power-play stats: 65 goals in 246 opportunities: 26.4% (3rd)
Team leaders in 2023-24:
Personnel changes: No relevant offseason changes for the Rangers’ elite power play.
Notes: With all five players logging 66% or more of the team’s power-play time, the top unit is clear. Panarin utilized the power play to fuel a career year, and more of the same is anticipated this season. If injuries arise, Alexis Lafreniere appears ready to step up and take on more responsibility.
Forecasted team power-play stats: 56 goals in 277 opportunities: 20.4% (21st)
Team leaders in 2023-24:
Personnel changes: Chychrun, the team’s leader in power-play points from the blue line, has departed. Veteran David Perron is in the mix, bringing experience and knack for the power play.
Notes: Even with his specialization, Perron isn’t guaranteed a spot on the Sens’ top unit. Watch Jake Sanderson, whose 14 power-play points last season could soar with the quarterback role. Tkachuk, Stutzle, and Batherson are locks, making that fifth spot crucial, Will it go to Josh Norris, Giroux, Perron or someone else? With at least two of those players, plus Thomas Chabot and Shane Pinto, the Sens could field two strong power-play units.
Forecasted team power-play stats: 32 goals in 239 opportunities: 13.4% (32nd)
Team leaders in 2023-24:
Personnel changes: The arrival of Matvei Michkov is the only movement to note.
Notes: Hopefully, Michkov can breathe life into this struggling power play. Last season, only one player reached double-digit points, so any improvement would be welcome. There are brighter prospects ahead, with young potential quarterbacks Cam York and Jamie Drysdale, alongside Tippett, Frost, and Konecny, all of whom have the talent to elevate their disappointing performances from last season.
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Forecasted team power-play stats: 51 goals in 266 opportunities: 19.1% (24th)
Team leaders in 2023-24:
Personnel changes: Nothing to note that we didn’t know already after the trade deadline, when the Pens dealt Jake Guentzel.
Notes: The first unit returns after a disappointing season, despite hopes that adding Karlsson would boost production. With the talent available, better results are expected, particularly for Bunting and Rust. At 34, Karlsson still has bounce-back potential, while Rickard Rakell and Kris Letang are available to step in if the power play struggles continue.
Forecasted team power-play stats: 41 goals in 215 opportunities: 19.2% (23rd)
Team leaders in 2023-24:
Personnel changes: More rookies are in the mix with Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith taking full-time roles.
Notes: With Addison gone, the blue line is an open casting call for the power play, but no A-listers have shown up. Henry Thrun got some looks last season and Jake Walman is now a Shark, but, given the current lineup, the team might revert to five-forward units like last season. Ultimately, Celebrini and Smith will dictate the power play’s fantasy value. If they succeed, Granlund could outpace his 162nd overall finish last season.
Forecasted team power-play stats: 50 goals in 235 opportunities: 21.3% (18th)
Team leaders in 2023-24:
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Personnel changes: Brandon Montour will take on the role of power-play quarterback on the blue line. Additionally, Shane Wright could become a key contributor if he makes significant progress this season.
Notes: Wait … Bjorkstrand led the Kraken in power-play points? If given an offseason pop quiz, I’m not 100% sure he would have been among my top-five guesses. There’s definitely room for improvement. Montour adds some power-play flair, while Eeli Tolvanen and Wright could serve in specialist roles. Ultimately, the Kraken need Beniers to step up and take charge of this unit.
Forecasted team power-play stats: 45 goals in 243 opportunities: 18.5% (25th)
Team leaders in 2023-24:
Personnel changes: Krug will miss the season with injury.
Notes: The top four Blues in power-play points last season should hold steady this year. Neighbours, now established, should exceed his 14 from last season. The real question is who takes over as the power-play quarterback. While Justin Faulk seems like the obvious choice, Scott Perunovich should also be in the mix.
Forecasted team power-play stats: 71 goals in 262 opportunities: 27.1% (2nd)
Team leaders in 2023-24:
Personnel changes: Goodbye Stamkos, hello Jake Guentzel. Mikhail Sergachev‘s departure is also significant.
Notes: Sergachev was limited by injuries last season, but remember that he pushed aside Hedman in 2022-23 to be the main fixture on the power play. So his departure is a big deal for Hedman to replicate last season. Guentzel effectively takes over for Stamkos on this potent unit, alleviating any concerns about that transition. Brandon Hagel is expected to step into the mix ahead of Paul, although that expectation also existed last season without materializing.
Forecasted team power-play stats: 61 goals in 238 opportunities: 25.7% (4th)
Team leaders in 2023-24:
Personnel changes: The big five here stand firm.
Notes: Expect a high volume of power-play goals from the four featured forwards. While an increase in production from Rielly would be welcome, it’s not expected since this unit has been established for years. Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Timothy Liljegren are unlikely to make an impact unless Rielly gets injured, but it’s worth noting that both would excel in that role if given the opportunity.
Forecasted team power-play stats: 53 goals in 241 opportunities: 22.0% (14th)
Team leaders in 2023-24:
Personnel changes: Sergachev is a major addition to this power play.
Notes: Despite being injured for much of last season, Sergachev secured the quarterback role for the Bolts in 2022-23, racking up 27 power-play points. Healthy now, expect a return to form. This top unit will likely mirror last season’s, with Sergachev replacing Durzi. Expect more from Cooley and Guenther as they continue to develop.
Forecasted team power-play stats: 59 goals in 258 opportunities: 22.9% (11th)
Team leaders in 2023-24:
Personnel changes: With Lindholm gone, there is an open spot. New arrival Jake DeBrusk might be the one for the job.
Notes: The key four for the Canucks were all on the ice for more than 70% of power-play minutes last season. There is exceptional talent here and a chance for the fifth member of the unit to eclipse 20 power-play points of their own. Candidates include Conor Garland, DeBrusk and Nils Hoglander, any of whom could go from fantasy afterthought to fantasy hero with the job.
Forecasted team power-play stats: 51 goals in 223 opportunities: 22.8% (13th)
Team leaders in 2023-24:
Personnel changes: Marchessault left via free agency. Tomas Hertl and Noah Hanifin, both acquired at last season’s trade deadline, will be in the mix. Newcomers Victor Olofsson and Alexander Holtz could also compete for a role.
Notes: This power play was not as effective as it needs to be last season. Eichel, Hertl, and a healthy Mark Stone are the locks for the top unit. From there, it’s Hanifin versus Theodore for the point, with Ivan Barbashev looking to fend off challenges from Holtz and Olofsson. If this group can punch up the scoring on the advantage, which their talent suggests it could, the mainstays will all have fantasy relevance.
Forecasted team power-play stats: 49 goals in 228 opportunities: 21.5% (16th)
Team leaders in 2023-24:
Personnel changes: From last season’s leaders, we know Oshie is out for the season and Pacioretty has moved on. Newcomers with a shot at power-play time include Andrew Mangiapane, Pierre-Luc Dubois and Jakob Chychrun.
Notes: With Ovechkin commanding virtually every available power-play moment and both Carlson and Chychrun available as elite point producers from the blue line, the Capitals might have two equally potent power-play units. Whichever unit develops the best chemistry first is likely to rack up the most points. Targeting Ovechkin’s five-on-five linemates for fantasy seems wise, making Strome and Mangiapane the ones to watch early on, though things could shift quickly.
Forecasted team power-play stats: 49 goals in 252 opportunities: 19.7% (22nd)
Team leaders in 2023-24:
Personnel changes: Toffoli is gone and the Jets have no notable additions to threaten for power-play time.
Notes: The Jets are hoping for a bounce-back season for their power play. Morrissey, who recorded 28 power-play points two seasons ago, experienced a decline last year, reflecting the unit’s overall struggles. With Nikolaj Ehlers poised to take on a top-unit role, there’s potential for improvement, but the team will need more consistent results to fully capitalize on their opportunities.
