Sep 26, 2024, 07:00 AM ET
We’re down to the final days of the 2024 regular season — and there are still quite a few teams that have something to play for.
Which clubs will get to keep playing into October, and which will watch their playoff aspirations come to an end?
There are still two wild-card spots available in each the American League and National League, with plenty of intrigue surrounding them. The Mets and Braves — two of three squads vying for those spots in the NL — will potentially face off in a doubleheader Monday with a postseason berth on the line after the final two games of their midweek series were postponed by weather. Meanwhile, the Padres and Dodgers are playing a final game with the division title still up for grabs, though L.A. can secure it with a win. And the Tigers?! What a late-season surge into contention — but can they hold on to their wild-card spot in the AL?
Our expert panel has combined to rank every team based on a combination of what we’ve seen so far and what we already knew going into the 162-game marathon that is a full baseball season. We also asked ESPN MLB experts David Schoenfield, Bradford Doolittle, Jesse Rogers, Alden Gonzalez and Jorge Castillo to weigh in with an observation for all 30 teams.
Week 25 | Second-half preview | Preseason rankings
Record: 94-65
Previous ranking: 1
The Phillies celebrated their first NL East title since 2011 with a 6-2 win over the Cubs at home Monday as Aaron Nola won his 13th game and Kyle Schwarber slugged his 37th home run. “OK, still got some work to do,” manager Rob Thomson said in the clubhouse as the beer and champagne kicked off. “But we want to get that bye. That’s very important.” The Phillies are still battling the Dodgers for the top seed in the NL and hold the tiebreaker by virtue of a 5-1 season series win, so all they need to do is finish with the same record to secure the 1-seed. — Schoenfield
Record: 94-64
Previous ranking: 2
The Dodgers should soon clinch the division and a first-round bye. And though skipping the wild-card round has led to swift elimination in the ensuing division series the past two years, there’s a sense around the team that the Dodgers especially need the time off this year. Their starting-pitching situation is that dicey.
With Tyler Glasnow and Gavin Stone out, Clayton Kershaw still on the mend — he’s currently “in a holding pattern,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said Tuesday — and Bobby Miller in the minor leagues, it looks like their October rotation will be Jack Flaherty, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Walker Buehler and 27-year-old rookie Landon Knack. All four bring varying degrees of concern. The Dodgers will probably need some fresh relievers. — Gonzalez
Record: 92-66
Previous ranking: 3
Aaron Judge‘s 2024 season will be remembered as one of the greatest offensive performances in history. The AL MVP front-runner leads the majors in home runs, RBIs, walks, intentional walks, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, OPS+, wRC+, fWAR and bWAR. We have not seen this level of production since Barry Bonds in 2004. But those numbers get wiped away next week.
Only the burden of expectations those statistics created will remain, and recent Octobers have not been kind to Judge. He is 10-for-70 (.143) with five home runs, six walks and 25 strikeouts over his past three postseasons. In 2022, the last time the Yankees reached the playoffs, he went 5-for-36 with 15 strikeouts in nine games after setting the AL record for home runs in a season. That included a 1-for-16 performance — and rounds of boos at Yankee Stadium — in the ALCS against the Astros. The pressure will be on Judge to deliver in October and carry the Yankees to their first World Series since 2009. — Castillo
Record: 91-67
Previous ranking: 5
Editor’s Picks
2 Related
There’s a feeling around the Padres that this season — coming off the death of their beloved, free-spending owner Peter Seidler in November — has some serendipity to it. It was proven once again Tuesday night, when they clinched a playoff spot by ending a game, preserving a two-run lead and leaving Shohei Ohtani in the on-deck circle, with a triple play. It was just the third game-ending triple play of the wild-card era and the first ever to clinch a playoff spot. With it, the Padres improved to a major league-best 41-17 since the All-Star break. Their lineup is humming, their rotation is dominating, and their bullpen is shortening games. Said Padres general manager A.J. Preller: “We feel like we’re as dangerous as anybody.” — Gonzalez
Record: 90-68
Previous ranking: 4
The Brewers took a moment to celebrate another division title — while losing three of four to Arizona last weekend — but then got back to the work of preparing for the postseason. They might luck out considering the Mets and Braves have to play a doubleheader Monday in advance of the wild-card round beginning Tuesday. There’s a good chance Milwaukee will play the team that emerges victorious from that, giving it a huge pitching advantage. The Brewers aren’t likely to earn a bye this weekend, but two teams battling out for the right to play them in Round 1 is the next best thing. — Rogers
Record: 92-67
Previous ranking: 6
The Guardians clinched their second AL Central title in three years and 12th overall on Saturday — and then clinched a first-round bye with Tuesday’s win over the Reds. They did it without ace Shane Bieber, who went down after two starts. They did it without key relievers Trevor Stephan and James Karinchak, who both missed the entire season. They did it without future Hall of Fame manager Terry Francona, as Stephen Vogt stepped into those big shoes.
Instead, they did it with Jose Ramirez, who’s closing in on a 40-40 season and another high finish in the MVP voting (let’s call him a future Hall of Famer, too). They did it with Josh Naylor joining Ramirez in the 100-RBI club, Steven Kwan‘s All-Star first half, closer Emmanuel Clase and the bullpen’s dominant season, and a lot of timely hitting. On to October. — Schoenfield
Record: 86-73
Previous ranking: 8
The Astros’ turnaround from a slow start was completed Tuesday when a win over Seattle clinched their fourth straight AL West title and eighth straight playoff berth. The win also locked the Astros into the AL’s 3-seed, and as they wait to see who they’ll face in the wild-card round, they can shift back into worry mode thanks to the problematic knee of star slugger Yordan Alvarez. Alvarez has already appeared in a career-high 147 games, but a sprained knee now seems likely to cut his regular season short. His last appearance was Sept. 22, and the timeline for his return is unclear, though the possibilities include being available at the outset of the postseason. Still, if Alvarez isn’t quite ready by next week, Houston’s slumberous start might have come back to bite it, because it sure could use the extra time off. — Doolittle
Record: 88-71
Previous ranking: 7
The D-backs are a perfect example of how quickly things can still change in the standings. On Saturday night, they won for the 38th time in 58 games during the second half, giving them a three-game cushion in the wild-card race. They proceeded to lose three in a row, trimming their advantage to only half a game before capturing a much-needed victory on Wednesday.Now their season will come down to a weekend home series against the division-rival Padres, owners of the best second-half record in baseball. After an 11-0 loss to the lowly Giants on Tuesday, D-backs manager Torey Lovullo reportedly held a team meeting and attempted to light a fire under his players. “We’ve got to play better baseball,” he told the media thereafter. “We’ve got to play more focused baseball.” — Gonzalez
Record: 88-70
Previous ranking: 9
MLB playoff tracker
Here’s everything you need to know as the regular season winds down, from current playoff matchups to league races to the postseason schedule.
MLB playoff tracker »
Bad injury luck has been a theme for Baltimore this season, but the tide has turned in recent days. Zach Eflin (shoulder), Ramon Urias (ankle), Heston Kjerstad (concussion), Jacob Webb (elbow), Ryan Mountcastle (wrist), Danny Coulombe (elbow) and Jordan Westburg (hand) have all been reinstated from the injured list over the past two weeks. Their returns make the Orioles as whole as they’ve been since the beginning of the summer. Just not as whole as they had hoped. Grayson Rodríguez was expected to join the reinforcements — and bolster a shorthanded starting rotation — before the end of the regular season, but that doesn’t appear likely because the right-hander still has not faced hitters since going on the IL with a right lat strain on Aug. 7. His absence would leave Baltimore without a clear Game 3 starter behind Corbin Burnes and Eflin. — Castillo
Record: 87-70
Previous ranking: 10
The Mets took three out of four against Philadelphia over the weekend to set themselves up for the big final road trip to Atlanta and Milwaukee, although that began with a 5-1 loss to the Braves on Tuesday, dropping New York’s lead over the Braves to one game. Because of rainouts, the Mets will have to wait to finish that series until Monday, the day after the regular season technically ends. Meanwhile, Francisco Lindor has had just one at-bat since Sept. 13 as he battles a back injury, despite his hoping to get into the rest of the Atlanta series. Luisangel Acuna has managed to fill in nicely, hitting .375/.394/.781 with three home runs and six RBIs in his first 10 MLB games. Still, getting Lindor back for the postseason — assuming the Mets hold on to get there — remains paramount to their chances. — Schoenfield
Record: 86-71
Previous ranking: 12
Looking up at the Mets and Diamondbacks in the wild-card race, Tuesday’s game against the Mets seemed like a must-win game, and the Braves delivered a 5-1 victory as Michael Harris II homered and doubled for his fifth straight multihit game and Spencer Schwellenbach tossed seven great innings for his eighth win (not bad for a pitcher who began the season in High-A). With both Wednesday’s and Thursday’s games rained out, the Mets are scheduled to return to Atlanta for a doubleheader on Monday with and a possible playoff spot on the line. (Though, there is a chance the doubleheader would not be needed if the playoff race is settled by Sunday.) — Schoenfield
Record: 84-74
Previous ranking: 13
The potential finishing touch to Tarik Skubal‘s eventual Cy Young season was a definitive one: seven scoreless innings against the Rays on Tuesday, culminating in a strikeout to secure his 18th win, drop his ERA to 2.39 and keep the surging Tigers on the right side of the wild-card standings with a third straight victory. Detroit has won 13 of its last 16 games and will finish its regular season with three games against a White Sox team that is on the verge of setting the record for losses in a season. If the Tigers need Skubal to pitch in the regular-season finale Sunday, he’ll be ready. If not, he’ll take the ball for Game 1 of the wild-card round. “This is why you play the game,” Skubal told reporters, “to play in moments like this.” — Gonzalez
Record: 84-74
Previous ranking: 11
The Royals have a few precious remaining days in the 2024 season to define their narrative as either one of a stunning rise or one of an even more stunning plummet. The key to the happy version of this story is probably clutch hitting. For nearly the entire campaign, Kansas City’s elite numbers with runners in scoring position have helped explain its push into contention. Since first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino went down Aug. 29, this fickle strength has betrayed the Royals. At that time, they led the majors with a .294 average with runners in scoring position. Since then, they’re last at below .200. — Doolittle
Record: 82-76
Previous ranking: 14
Regular-season grades for all 30 MLB teams
From no A-plus to an F-minus-minus-minus-minus … here is our final report card for every squad.
On Sept. 1, despite losing nine of 12 games, the Twins were sitting comfortably in a wild-card spot with a 4½-game cushion. That is no longer the case. They are two games out of a playoff spot with four games remaining after dropping 14 of 23 games in September. The offense has disappeared, scoring fewer than five runs in eight straight games before Wednesday’s 8-3 win over the Marlins, which also stopped a three-game skid. The bullpen has been prone to implosions. The starting rotation has been mediocre. All season, the Twins overcame injuries to important players — namely Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis and Byron Buxton — to hold steady in the playoff picture. They need wins and great luck in the next four days to avoid being erased from it. — Castillo
Record: 82-77
Previous ranking: 15
Better late than never? Or already too late? The Mariners can still make the playoffs, but a lot of things must break their way. Julio Rodriguez, for one, looks intent to make miracles happen. After floundering for months, the young star has finally morphed back into the player many saw as the potential face of baseball over the next decade. J-Rod’s primary failing had been a puzzling lack of power, leading to a decent but empty batting average.
Well, in a 25-game span over the past month, he’s hitting .366/.407/625 with eight homers and has lifted his OPS from .660 to .736. While it might not be enough to get his team into the postseason, at the very least, this finish will have Mariners fans feeling much better about their franchise player heading into the winter. — Doolittle
Record: 81-78
Previous ranking: 16
The Cubs are testing the waters with some call-ups in the final days of the regular season. They need an account of what exactly they have heading into the offseason. This winter could be the right time for a mammoth trade from their prospect group in order to acquire a true star: Think Vladimir Guerrero Jr., if he’s available, or a pitcher of the same caliber. Otherwise, the Cubs might be stuck in the middle of the pack. They’re a good team, but their position player group will be a year older — several turned 30 this season — so the organization needs to make some bold decisions. Chicago hasn’t made the postseason in a full year since 2018 — that should be the driving force between now and next April. — Rogers
Record: 80-79
Previous ranking: 17
If all goes as planned, the Red Sox will have four premier prospects make their major league debuts next season. Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, Kristian Campbell and Kyle Teel, all regarded as top-25 prospects, finished 2024 in Triple-A, though Mayer didn’t play after his promotion. It’s an owner’s dream: four talented, young and affordable contributors under club control for the next six years (at least). As of now, they’d join a position player group headlined by All-Star Game MVP Jarren Duran, three-time All-Star Rafael Devers, 2024 AL Rookie of the Year candidate Wilyer Abreu and slugger Triston Casas.
The problem? None of the four prospects are pitchers. Boston must address its pitching staff — both the rotation and bullpen — this winter if it wants to compete in the loaded AL East after three straight seasons without a playoff appearance. That could mean trading from the position players already in the big leagues or the ones coming through the pipeline. — Castillo
Record: 81-77
Previous ranking: 18
What’s going to happen to Paul Goldschmidt? A spring extension never materialized, and now he’s finishing off arguably the worst year of his career. At 36 years old, it’s not shocking that he might be slowing down, but he probably still has a good year or two left in him. He’s not that far removed from being a dominant hitter, winning NL MVP as recently as 2022. The good news is Goldy can still hit a fastball — he just didn’t barrel up off-speed stuff this season like he has in the past. A reset with a new team might be in order. — Rogers
Record: 79-80
Previous ranking: 21
Jeff Passan’s MLB season awards
You already know who is winning MVP and Cy Young — so it’s time for our wide-ranging regular-season annual accolades.
The Passans (ESPN+) »
Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi outlined the team’s offseason blueprint to beat reporters recently, expressing a desire to acquire a shortstop; bring back frontline starter Blake Snell, who seems certain to opt out; and not block the path of 19-year-old top prospect Bryce Eldridge at first base. Zaidi also acknowledged, after a fifth playoff absence in his six years atop baseball operations, that he might not be the one making those decisions. “It’s my job to evaluate everything in my purview, and it’s their job to evaluate everything in my purview plus me,” Zaidi, referencing the Giants’ ownership group, told local reporters. “And so I think that process is happening, and I understand it.” — Gonzalez
Record: 78-80
Previous ranking: 19
The Rays, though mathematically alive in the wild-card race, will miss the postseason after five consecutive appearances. There’s a chance they’ll finish under .500 for the first time since 2016. However, their track record — and projected 2025 roster — suggests it’ll be a one-year blip. The foundation for this year’s falloff was the spate of injuries to their starting pitchers. Shane McClanahan, an All-Star the past two seasons, didn’t pitch at all after undergoing Tommy John surgery last year. Jeffrey Springs, Shane Baz, Drew Rasmussen, Ryan Pepiot and Taj Bradley all missed chunks of time. Zack Littell, who had never made more than 14 starts in a season, leads the team with 28.
Assuming those players are healthy, the Rays should have one of the strongest rotations in baseball without making any offseason additions. Factor in their perennially elite bullpen plus a solid position player core, buoyed by top prospect Junior Caminero in his first full big league season, and the Rays should return to playoff contention in 2025. — Castillo
Record: 76-83
Previous ranking: 20
The Reds’ managerial search is beginning in earnest after the team dismissed David Bell after a lackluster season. They had high hopes for 2024, and likely will again next year, but hiring the right candidate to bring out the best in their young team is paramount. A veteran manager is probably the right move — there are plenty out there with experience — but the roster should be augmented as well. Cincinnati doesn’t always dip too much into free agency but might have to think bigger if it wants to take the next step. A respected manager combined with a big-name addition on the mound could get the Reds closer to where they want to be. — Rogers
Record: 75-83
Previous ranking: 22
If there is one thing that the Rangers might love to see before the season winds down, it’s Justin Foscue stringing together a few hits. Extra-base hits would be extra nice. Foscue mashed his way through the minors with a .278/.388/.499 slash line, primarily as a second baseman. At 25 years old, an age at which top prospects need to be transitioning to the majors, Foscue began working at first base in spring training and played there frequently throughout the season. He has mostly been a designated hitter during three different stints in the majors this year.
And while he has a bat that ought to play anywhere, he has put up numbers that won’t play, period. Foscue started his big league career by going 2-for-38 with a lone extra-base hit (a double). On the bright side, the sample is tiny and he should be fine in the long run. Still, it might help solidify Texas’ plan for 2025 if he rang up a few hits to end the season. — Doolittle
Record: 74-85
Previous ranking: 23
Bo Bichette‘s maddening 2024 season concluded in cruel fashion last week when he fractured his right middle finger taking ground balls pregame after returning from nearly a two-month absence. Will that be the end of his Blue Jays career? That’s one of several questions in Toronto heading into the offseason. Rumors about the team’s willingness to trade the shortstop began swirling last winter before his 26th birthday, as he had two years of club control remaining. But Bichette was coming off his second All-Star season and batting .306 with 20 home runs and an .814 OPS.
This time, the Blue Jays would be dealing low after Bichette slashed .225/.277/.322 with four home runs in 81 games. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., their other franchise cornerstone, is also one year away from free agency and finishing up another huge season. Do they trade him with his value as high as it’s ever going to be? Or do they try to extend and build around him? Toronto has some important decisions to make. — Castillo
Record: 74-84
Previous ranking: 24
If the Pirates were willing to take dramatic action — cutting infielder Rowdy Tellez — to save $200,000, then what does that say about their upcoming offseason? They have been as frugal as any team in the sport, but with Paul Skenes and Jared Jones in tow, there was a feeling they would move quickly to build around their two power arms. Perhaps they still will, but they lost the public relations battle this week in order to save a few bucks, which is never a good look to fans. Actions speak louder than words, so no matter what Pirates executives say about Tellez, or anything really, the winter will be the story of whether Pittsburgh will ever be serious about winning again. — Rogers
Record: 68-90
Previous ranking: 25
MLB most exciting player bracket
Who is the most electrifying player in baseball right now? Let’s crown a champion. MLB most exciting player bracket »
Thursday is it for the Oakland Athletics. One more tilt against the Rangers and the A’s then head out for a season-ending series at Seattle. At some point after that, they’ll simply be known as the Vagabond Athletics (not an official moniker, but because the team is punting on adopting a new city label, we get to fill in the blanks). One practical point for building toward next season is figuring out how their temporary home in Sacramento will play. For what it’s worth, Sutter Health Park has generally played as a pitching-friendly venue that’s tough for home run hitters. In other words, it might play similar to the park the Athletics are leaving. Still, determining that will impact how they shape their next few rosters. — Doolittle
Record: 69-89
Previous ranking: 26
The Nationals sent All-Star shortstop CJ Abrams to Triple-A over the weekend with what manager Dave Martinez termed an “internal issue,” but reports surfaced that Abrams had been out at a local Chicago casino, leaving only hours before a 1 p.m. game that afternoon. Abrams made the All-Star team this season after hitting .268 with an .831 OPS in the first half, but he slumped to .203 with a .586 OPS in the second half. Abrams obviously remains a big part of the Nationals’ future, but aside from maturity issues, the club must determine if that’s going to be at shortstop. Via Statcast’s outs above average, he was the worst shortstop in the game in 2024 (first percentile, 18 outs below average). — Schoenfield
Record: 63-95
Previous ranking: 27
Perhaps the Angels’ biggest offseason decision is determining what role, if any, Anthony Rendon will have going forward. Given the head-slapping $77 million he has coming his way for the next two seasons, it’s all but certain he’ll be penciled in as their 2025 third baseman. The money is a sunk cost no matter what happens, and if the Halos are intent on building a win-now team around Mike Trout, they can’t afford to have an everyday third baseman who slugs .267 — if he’s on the field at all. And with prospect Christian Moore rising fast, they will have options on the infield. Chances are, Rendon will be back, but maybe the Angels’ best plan is to build the roster as if he were not. — Doolittle
Record: 60-98
Previous ranking: 28
A weekend home series against the Dodgers will mark the end of Charlie Blackmon‘s career. The lifelong Rockie announced Tuesday that he will retire at the regular season’s conclusion, ending a career that spanned 14 seasons, included four trips to the All-Star Game and was built on unrelenting determination. Fittingly, former teammate Nolan Arenado was there to watch him address the media. Blackmon’s prime coincided with a brief period when the Rockies — also led by the likes of Arenado, Trevor Story, D.J. LeMahieu, Kyle Freeland and German Marquez — were able to break through to the playoffs. Now they’re hoping to just barely avoid a second consecutive 100-loss season. It’s a new chapter, indeed. — Gonzalez
Record: 58-100
Previous ranking: 29
With a 100-loss season on the ledger for 2024, the Marlins have now lost at least 93 games in five of the past six full seasons, squeezing in playoff seasons in 2020 (31-29) and 2023 (84-78). The first step of the offseason will be replacing manager Skip Schumaker, who won NL Manager of the Year in 2023 but doesn’t have a contract for 2025 (both sides agreed last offseason to void a club option for 2025). The next step will be attempting to assess the health of all their pitcher injuries this season and what that means for next year. Sixto Sanchez did make a one-inning rehab appearance in Triple-A, but Braxton Garrett had a setback after a recent bullpen session. Sandy Alcantara should be ready for spring training, and we’ll see about Jesus Luzardo. Eury Perez will still be recovering from Tommy John surgery. — Schoenfield
Record: 38-120
Previous ranking: 30
Inside the White Sox clubhouse
What’s it like in the clubhouse as you are about to shatter the all-time record for losses? Somehow, not as sad as one would think.
Jeff Passan »
Getting past their historic season of losing, the White Sox have some business to attend to in the form of a new manager. GM Chris Getz reversed course this week, stating that interim manager Grady Sizemore would get the opportunity to stay on — but he’s far from the favorite. Getz wants an expert in player development, and that candidate could come from anywhere in the majors. He’ll interview candidates beginning next month while also learning what other organizations do well. Chicago could learn a lot from its opponents in the AL Central, all of whom have small payrolls but great success at finding and developing talent. — Rogers
