-
Sean Allen, Special to ESPN.comSep 24, 2024, 11:00 AM ET
- Sean Allen is a fantasy analyst for ESPN.com. He was the 2008 and 2009 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Hockey Writer of the Year. You can tweet him @seanard.
It’s funny how communication has evolved to the point where memes can convey a message better than paragraphs.
The tiered rankings for forwards was published earlier here at ESPN Fantasy, and I spent the top of the article attempting to impart the advantage and importance of tiering.
Then I realized the Drake “Hotline Bling” meme probably does a better job with just four simple panels and minimal words.
Drake turning away in disgust: “Fantasy hockey rankings.”
Drake nodding in knowing approval: “Fantasy hockey rankings with tiers.”
Play Fantasy Hockey for Free
Create or join a fantasy hockey league on ESPN. Your championship run starts today!
That’s it. Even writing out what the meme looks like it might explain the importance better. As simple as it sounds, tiering turns your rankings from a static list into a flexible, pressure-proof strategy.
You might feel calm before the draft, but once the ESPN app starts barking orders at you — “You are on the clock!” — the pressure is on. Just a little effort beforehand to tier your rankings ensures you always have options you are comfortable with, regardless of how much your queue thins out by the time it’s your turn to pick. There’s nothing worse than watching your top choices disappear one by one, but tiering keeps you in control.
Just like a meme can cut through the noise with a clear message, tiering your rankings simplifies decision-making under pressure. The idea is to use the rankings or projections you like the most, but then identify where there are meaningful gaps between players. Group the players into bunches in which you would feel equally comfortable taking any of them for your fantasy team.
This exercise also helps you discover which players you might like more or less than the rankings initially suggest. Players can quietly slip into a generally appropriate spot without being tiered, but when you’re forced to look at a tier and feel equal comfort with all the players in it, some might suddenly stand out. That’s a good sign you can bump them down (or up) a little in your rankings.
Keep in mind, these aren’t the same rankings you’ll see in your ESPN league. I’ll repeat what I said in the forwards ranking column: The rankings you see here will be different from the ones inside the ESPN Fantasy Hockey game, as those are the in-game built rankings — not mine. I use my own projections, fueled in part by the player’s individual three-year average and a sprinkle of the average of comparable players of the same age over the past 15 years, topped with a dash of manual adjustments.
However you get your rankings or projections, take extra time to do some tier work. It can be as simple as drawing a line where you eyeball a gap between talent, or as overly complex as running projections through a mathematical binning formula (ahem). Every little bit helps.
Tier 1: A tier of two
1. Cale Makar, D, Colorado Avalanche: Projected: 226.6, last season: 233.3
2. Roman Josi, D, Nashville Predators: Projected: 218.2, last season: 231.9
Notes: These two defenders stand alone on a mountain, looking down at their peers who only wish they were this good. You can flip-flop the order if you like, but it’s hard to argue with the youthful upside of Makar going first.
Tier 2: If anyone can challenge
How early will you take Quinn Hughes in your fantasy hockey draft? Kevin Sousa/NHLI via Getty Images
3. Adam Fox, D, New York Rangers: Projected: 200.3, last season: 187.1
4. Noah Dobson, D, New York Islanders: Projected: 197.6, last season: 208.3
5. Rasmus Dahlin, D, Buffalo Sabres: Projected: 193.7, last season: 209.0
6. Quinn Hughes, D, Vancouver Canucks: Projected: 192.6, last season: 178.3
Notes: This tier is still all about top-end value, just a little off the pace that we expect from Josi and Makar. Hughes’ talents don’t directly translate as well to the fantasy game, but he’s in the same mold as Fox, so the 200-point threshold is achievable in his future — especially with Hughes turning just 25 in October. Essentially, all four of these guys are young enough to conceivably have their career-best years ahead of them.
Tier 3: Gone by end of third round?
7. Moritz Seider, D, Detroit Red Wings: Projected: 188.4, last season: 200.6
8. John Carlson, D, Washington Capitals: Projected: 186.4, last season: 194.0
9. Evan Bouchard, D, Edmonton Oilers: Projected: 184.1, last season: 199.1
10. Zach Werenski, D, Columbus Blue Jackets: Projected: 181.4, last season: 161.5
11. Victor Hedman, D, Tampa Bay Lightning: Projected: 180.1, last season: 178.8
Fantasy hockey is back!
• How to win your league like a pro
• Which league is right for you?
• Projections | Goalie depth chart
• Rankings | Draft kit
• Best fantasy hockey team names
• Sign up for free today
Notes: We don’t quite get to the traditional No. 1 defense cutoff of 12 here, as Tier 3 stops with Hedman at 11th. With Carlson and Hedman, we are hoping they hang on to glory; with Seider, Bouchard and Werenski, there is upside that they could beat these projections. Werenski is of particular interest, as a full 82-game season could really elevate his fantasy status. Since 2018-19, his high-water mark for games played is 70.
Tier 4: Some bounce-back candidates in here
12. MacKenzie Weegar, D, Calgary Flames: Projected: 177.6, last season: 220.7
13. Charlie McAvoy, D, Boston Bruins: Projected: 174.1, last season: 174.2
14. Mikhail Sergachev, D, Utah Hockey Club: Projected: 172.0, last season: 67.9
15. Dougie Hamilton, D, New Jersey Devils: Projected: 171.2, last season: 44.9
16. Morgan Rielly, D, Toronto Maple Leafs: Projected: 170.7, last season: 170.6
17. Jakob Chychrun, D, Washington Capitals: Projected: 170.2, last season: 167.6
18. Erik Karlsson, D, Pittsburgh Penguins: Projected: 169.6, last season: 150.3
19. Josh Morrissey, D, Winnipeg Jets: Projected: 169.2, last season: 168.6
Notes: Weegar might be controversial this low, but his 2022-23 was rough for fantasy, the Flames don’t look like winners this season and the team still boasts other talented offensive defenders. Hamilton, Sergachev and Karlsson are all bounce-back candidates with the “bounce” already built into this projection. However, their ceilings might be slightly higher than indicated here.
Starting your own league is easier than ever! Set your league size, select your keepers, and invite your friends to start playing. Sign up for free today and be the commish!
Tier 5: Good floor, high ceiling
20. Drew Doughty, D, Los Angeles Kings: Projected: 167.0, last season: 170.4
21. Noah Hanifin, D, Vegas Golden Knights: Projected: 167.0, last season: 150.7
22. Shea Theodore, D, Vegas Golden Knights: Projected: 166.7, last season: 104.9
23. Brock Faber, D, Minnesota Wild: Projected: 165.3, last season: 158.1
24. Aaron Ekblad, D, Florida Panthers: Projected: 165.0, last season: 71.8
25. Miro Heiskanen, D, Dallas Stars: Projected: 164.2, last season: 143.7
26. Jake Sanderson, D, Ottawa Senators: Projected: 159.7, last season: 145.2
Editor’s Picks
1 Related
Notes: All the defensemen in Tier 5 are still relatively safe, with a couple of exceptions. Ekblad hasn’t been a fantasy standout lately, but with Brandon Montour and Oliver Ekman-Larsson gone, he’s now the top option on what should remain a strong Florida power play. Hanifin and Theodore have potential, but you might not get full fantasy value from both. Hanifin is the safer choice, as he produces solid even-strength stats without relying heavily on power-play time. Meanwhile, Theodore could exceed these projections if he fully rebounds from two consecutive seasons of missing at least 27 games.
Tier 6: Physical play on display
27. Darnell Nurse, D, Edmonton Oilers: Projected: 155.7, last season: 165.9
28. Jacob Trouba, D, New York Rangers: Projected: 155.2, last season: 149.5
29. Devon Toews, D, Colorado Avalanche: Projected: 152.6, last season: 143.8
30. Mike Matheson, D, Montreal Canadiens: Projected: 151.9, last season: 205.8
31. Colton Parayko, D, St. Louis Blues: Projected: 151.9, last season: 173.2
32. Cam York, D, Philadelphia Flyers: Projected: 151.8, last season: 152.0
33. Rasmus Andersson, D, Calgary Flames: Projected: 151.5, last season: 165.6
34. Brandon Montour, D, Seattle Kraken: Projected: 148.7, last season: 110.2
35. Vince Dunn, D, Seattle Kraken: Projected: 148.1, last season: 113.4)
36. Brayden McNabb, D, Vegas Golden Knights: Projected: 146.4, last season: 158.0)
37. Seth Jones, D, Chicago Blackhawks: Projected: 146.1, last season: 133.9)
Notes: Some defenders who rely heavily on physicality for their fantasy stats — such as Nurse, Trouba, Parayko and McNabb — start to appear here in Tier 6. Keep in mind that counting stats from hits and blocked shots are valuable in points-based fantasy games, as they tend to be more consistent than goals and assists. In York’s final 24 games last season, he potted 59.1 of his total fantasy points. Here’s hoping he can keep that momentum. Jones could easily outperform this tier if the Blackhawks power play has a quality season. Montour and Dunn will push each other for value, but if one emerges as the favorite on the Kraken advantage, he will move up.
Tier 7: Wide range of outcomes
38. Shayne Gostisbehere, D, Carolina Hurricanes: Projected: 139.9, last season: 134.8
39. Thomas Harley, D, Dallas Stars: Projected: 138.9, last season: 155.6
40. Alex Vlasic, D, Chicago Blackhawks: Projected: 137.8, last season: 105.7
41. Travis Sanheim, D, Philadelphia Flyers: Projected: 137.7, last season: 157.0
42. Justin Faulk, D, St. Louis Blues: Projected: 135.4, last season: 109.5
43. Owen Power, D, Buffalo Sabres: Projected: 135.3, last season: 115.3
44. Thomas Chabot, D, Ottawa Senators: Projected: 134.5, last season: 102.7
45. Neal Pionk, D, Winnipeg Jets: Projected: 134.5, last season: 137.7
46. Matt Roy, D, Washington Capitals: Projected: 132.6, last season: 158.7
47. Adam Larsson, D, Seattle Kraken: Projected: 132.5, last season: 127.2
48. Ivan Provorov, D, Columbus Blue Jackets: Projected: 132.4, last season: 135.3
49. Ben Chiarot, D, Detroit Red Wings: Projected: 131.8, last season: 135.5
It’s your league. Run it how you want.
Choose your league size, customize the scoring and set the rules you want to create the fantasy hockey league you want to play in.
Create your custom league for free!
Notes: In Tier 7, things start to get murky. At this stage, you’re likely drafting your fourth or fifth D, so some risk is expected. Vlasic might build on his top-pairing role as the Hawks improve, or he could lose minutes to veterans. Power could make a huge leap in his age-22 season or remain overshadowed by talented teammates. Harley might continue his 2023-24 breakout, or that could be his ceiling. Harley and Vlasic are my top picks to outperform their projections in this tier. But keep an eye on the role Gostisbehere secures with the Canes.
Tier 8: Filling out the roster
50. Kris Letang, D, Pittsburgh Penguins: Projected: 129.5, last season: 162.1
51. Jake McCabe, D, Toronto Maple Leafs: Projected: 129.0, last season: 131.2
52. Alex Pietrangelo, D, Vegas Golden Knights: Projected: 128.9, last season: 140.7
53. Brandt Clarke, D, Los Angeles Kings: Projected: 128.4, last season: 23.7
54. Alexander Romanov, D, New York Islanders: Projected: 128.3, last season: 141.9
55. Esa Lindell, D, Dallas Stars: Projected: 128.2, last season: 131.3
56. Gustav Forsling, D, Florida Panthers: Projected: 128.1, last season: 128.1
57. Simon Edvinsson, D, Detroit Red Wings: Projected: 127.7, last season: 19.4
58. Jared Spurgeon, D, Minnesota Wild: Projected: 127.5, last season: 24.5
59. Mario Ferraro, D, San Jose Sharks: Projected: 127.2, last season: 146.3
60. Bowen Byram, D, Buffalo Sabres: Projected: 126.4, last season: 110.3
Notes: At this point, you’re likely drafting for your bench unless you’re in a deeper league. It feels off to rank Pietrangelo and Letang this low given their histories, but their paths to fantasy relevance are murky with Hanifin and Theodore in Vegas and Karlsson in Pittsburgh. Edvinsson has the potential to become a fantasy favorite if he secures significant ice time. If he averages over 20 minutes per game, he could deliver solid value. Just missing the top 60 are Alec Martinez, whose projection is hurt by recent injuries, Filip Hronek, who remains intriguing due to last season’s hot streaks, and Brady Skjei, who could be a strong asset as Josi’s likely new partner.
Want a challenge? Sign up for an ESPN+ league and face off against the best of the best!
