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Sean Allen, Special to ESPN.comSep 24, 2024, 11:00 AM ET
- Sean Allen is a fantasy analyst for ESPN.com. He was the 2008 and 2009 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Hockey Writer of the Year. You can tweet him @seanard.
You made your last draft pick easily enough, confident in your pick.
As you see the picks start to snake away from you toward the turn from the third to fourth round, you start to load a couple of players into your queue that you expect will still be there when it comes back to your pick. After all, no one else is quite as high on that one sleeper as you are, and your backup pick is a solid veteran that others might overlook. Why would they take him now? There are more tempting options on the board.
The picks continue as the draft comes back your way. Just three more until it’s your turn.
Dammit! Someone took your sleeper.
That’s OK – the unheralded vet will do. You like him as a contributor to your team. Just one more pick and he’s yours.
“You are on the clock!”
… Wait. Why is your queue empty? Did you accidentally click something wrong?
Oh no. They took your veteran right before your pick!
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Don’t let this happen to you. This public service message is brought to you by the power of tiered rankings.
By grouping your personal picks together in tiers, you are always ready for the next draft pick. It’s like having infinite backup plans. Having tiered rankings is like walking into your draft with Batman’s utility belt; you have the right tool for whatever your opponents are going to bring.
Bam! Pow! Zap! Zowie! That’s the sound of you dominating your draft with your tiered ranks.
The rankings you see here will be different from the rankings you see inside the ESPN Fantasy Hockey game, as those are the official ESPN fantasy hockey rankings, not my personal ranks. I use my own projections that are fueled in part by the player’s individual three-year average and a sprinkle of the average of comparable players of the same age across the past 15 years and seasoned with a dash of manual adjustments. You can see my projected ESPN standard scoring points projected next to each player below.
You can use my tiers below, or create your own from the ESPN default rankings or rankings from any number of locations on the internet. The point is, do yourself a favor and incorporate tiers into whatever rankings you’re bringing to your draft. Every decision you make now is one you don’t need to make with the clock counting down on your next pick.
It doesn’t have to be as detailed or mathematically precise as the tiers here. Even a simple line drawn through your cheat sheet to denote a significant drop-off can be incredibly effective.
Tier 1 – Fantasy Hart candidates
1. Connor McDavid, C, Edmonton Oilers: (projected: 267.5, last season: 244.1)
2. Nathan MacKinnon, C, Colorado Avalanche: (projected: 262.2, last season: 295.5)
3. Auston Matthews, C, Toronto Maple Leafs: (projected: 258.6, last season: 283.3)
Notes: In the past five seasons, Matthews has finished as a top-three fantasy skater four times, while McDavid has achieved this feat three times. MacKinnon has finished in the top three only once, but he did so emphatically by securing first place just last season. In simple terms: the first pick in your redraft league should be one of these three players, and there isn’t really an incorrect choice among them.
Tier 2 – Just a hair below
Nikita Kucherov recorded a career-high 100 assists last season. Andrew Bershaw/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
4. David Pastrnak, W, Boston Bruins: (projected: 227.5, last season: 229.2)
5. Leon Draisaitl, C, Edmonton Oilers: (projected: 227.1, last season: 208.0)
6. Nikita Kucherov, W, Tampa Bay Lightning: (projected: 221.7, last season: 267.1)
7. Mikko Rantanen, W, Colorado Avalanche: (projected: 221.2, last season: 222.9)
Notes: Draisaitl makes a strong case for being in the top tier based on his history. Along with McDavid and Matthews, he is one of only three players to appear among the top five fantasy skaters in four of the past five seasons. However, it’s worth noting that some of Draisaitl’s past success was due to playing alongside McDavid, a situation that is unlikely to be the case this season.
Tier 3 – Upside to hang with the best
8. Jack Hughes, C, New Jersey Devils: (projected: 206.2, last season: 156.9)
9. J.T. Miller, C, Vancouver Canucks: (projected: 204.9, last season: 232.6)
10. Elias Pettersson, C, Vancouver Canucks: (projected: 204.0, last season: 206.7)
11. Kirill Kaprizov, W, Minnesota Wild: (projected: 203.0, last season: 214.7)
12. Matthew Tkachuk, W, Florida Panthers: (projected: 199.0, last season: 187.6)
13. Sam Reinhart, C, Florida Panthers: (projected: 197.1, last season: 234.6)
14. Artemi Panarin, W, New York Rangers: (projected: 196.6, last season: 231.1)
15. Steven Stamkos, C, Nashville Predators: (projected: 196.3, last season: 196.0)
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Notes: We can separate Tier 3 on this basis: It wouldn’t an absolute shock if these forwards didn’t finish among the top 20 in fantasy points. That’s what really makes the seven players in Tier 1 and Tier 2 different; they are locks to return your first-round investment. This group probably will, and certainly none of them have a low floor for production. They just aren’t quite as locked in. Hughes is the pick if you are going for upside, as he is still just 23 years old. Reinhart has been projected for a dip in fantasy points, with his 57-goal campaign standing in stark contrast to his previous career high of 33. Stamkos has a lot of potential in his new home in Tennessee. Panarin’s impressive 231.1 points last season is hard to overlook, but if we exclude the COVID-shortened 2020-21 season, his scores over seven seasons ranged from 143.9 to 171.4, suggesting last season might be an outlier. He’s still a valuable pick, but expectations should be muted compared to his recent peak.
Tier 4 – Steady as they go
16. Sidney Crosby, C, Pittsburgh Penguins: (projected: 195.2, last season: 203.9)
17. Brady Tkachuk, W, Ottawa Senators: (projected: 193.3, last season: 204.1)
18. William Nylander, W, Toronto Maple Leafs: (projected: 189.9, last season: 206.8)
19. Jake Guentzel, W, Tampa Bay Lightning: (projected: 188.2, last season: 160.6)
20. Brayden Point, C, Tampa Bay Lightning: (projected: 187.9, last season: 198.3)
21. Filip Forsberg, W, Nashville Predators: (projected: 187.6, last season: 228.8)
Notes: We arguably could have combined Tier 3 and Tier 4, but there is enough of a projection dip that we might as well separate them. We are still in very safe territory here. Even at 37, it’s too soon to start fading Crosby.
Tier 5 – Good floor, high ceiling
How long will you wait to draft Connor Bedard? Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports
22. Jason Robertson, W, Dallas Stars: (projected: 184.8, last season: 169.3)
23. Connor Bedard, C, Chicago Blackhawks: (projected: 184.5, last season: 133.0)
24. Jack Eichel, C, Vegas Golden Knights: (projected: 184.1, last season: 171.9)
25. Mitch Marner, W, Toronto Maple Leafs: (projected: 183.9, last season: 172.2)
26. Sebastian Aho, C, Carolina Hurricanes: (projected: 182.6, last season: 177.4)
27. Mika Zibanejad, C, New York Rangers: (projected: 181.5, last season: 171.0)
28. Nick Suzuki, C, Montreal Canadiens: (projected: 179.9, last season: 174.9)
29. Tage Thompson, C, Buffalo Sabres: (projected: 179.6, last season: 141.0)
30. Zach Hyman, W, Edmonton Oilers: (projected: 176.8, last season: 197.2)
31. Tim Stutzle, C, Ottawa Senators: (projected: 176.1, last season: 147.7)
32. Mathew Barzal, C, New York Islanders: (projected: 174.9, last season: 170.9)
Notes: Many of the players in this tier could easily outpace these projections and insert themselves as high as the players in Tier 3. This group is all about the upside! Maybe with the lone exceptions of Suzuki and Barzal, any of the others in this group finishing among the top 12 forwards probably wouldn’t result in many jaws hitting the floor. There is a historical argument this projection might be too high for Bedard. In the past 15 seasons, only Auston Matthews earned 180 or more fantasy points in a season at an age younger than Bedard will be at the end of next April.
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Tier 6 – Almost filling out the top 50
33. Wyatt Johnston, C, Dallas Stars: (projected: 173.7, last season: 151.3)
34. John Tavares, C, Toronto Maple Leafs: (projected: 172.7, last season: 163.8)
35. Aleksander Barkov, C, Florida Panthers: (projected: 172.5, last season: 173.2)
36. Clayton Keller, W, Utah Hockey Club: (projected: 171.4, last season: 163.8)
37. Robert Thomas, C, St. Louis Blues: (projected: 171.2, last season: 169.1)
38. Nico Hischier, C, New Jersey Devils: (projected: 171.1, last season: 146.6)
39. Seth Jarvis, C, Carolina Hurricanes: (projected: 170.7, last season: 166.6)
40. Vincent Trocheck, C, New York Rangers: (projected: 170.5, last season: 196.5)
41. Cole Caufield, W, Montreal Canadiens: (projected: 169.9, last season: 151.5)
42. Juraj Slafkovsky, W, Montreal Canadiens: (projected: 169.2, last season: 142.9)
43. Chris Kreider, W, New York Rangers: (projected: 168.9, last season: 175.5)
44. Anze Kopitar, C, Los Angeles Kings: (projected: 168.2, last season: 158.5)
45. Adrian Kempe, W, Los Angeles Kings: (projected: 165.0, last season: 170.3)
46. Timo Meier, W, New Jersey Devils: (projected: 164.6, last season: 141.3)
47. Brock Boeser, W, Vancouver Canucks: (projected: 164.5, last season: 166.0)
48. Bo Horvat, C, New York Islanders: (projected: 164.2, last season: 162.9)
49. Andrei Svechnikov, W, Carolina Hurricanes: (projected: 164.0, last season: 119.1)
Notes: Johnston, Jarvis, Caufield and Slafkovsky make up the under-24 crowd in this tier, which means they have the most potential to get a big bump in fantasy production. A healthy Hischier might not only lift himself up from this tier, but could also drag Meier with him on the Devils power play. Kempe was somewhat quietly posted two consecutive campaigns with 170-plus fantasy points.
Tier 7 – Our first rookie
50. Joel Eriksson Ek, C, Minnesota Wild: (projected: 163.0, last season: 176.0)
51. Brock Nelson, C, New York Islanders: (projected: 161.4, last season: 165.8)
52. Alex DeBrincat, W, Detroit Red Wings: (projected: 160.9, last season: 151.3)
53. Jesper Bratt, W, New Jersey Devils: (projected: 160.7, last season: 171.9)
54. Dylan Larkin, C, Detroit Red Wings: (projected: 160.5, last season: 159.5)
55. Kyle Connor, W, Winnipeg Jets: (projected: 160.5, last season: 137.5)
56. Elias Lindholm, C, Boston Bruins: (projected: 158.9, last season: 123.2)
57. Roope Hintz, C, Dallas Stars: (projected: 158.0, last season: 147.3)
58. Matvei Michkov, W, Philadelphia Flyers: (projected: 156.6, last season: N/A)
59. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, C, Edmonton Oilers: (projected: 156.6, last season: 140.5)
60. Nazem Kadri, C, Calgary Flames: (projected: 154.3, last season: 160.4)
61. Viktor Arvidsson, W, Edmonton Oilers: (projected: 154.0, last season: 39.2)
62. Mark Scheifele, C, Winnipeg Jets: (projected: 154.0, last season: 147.7)
63. Matt Boldy, W, Minnesota Wild: (projected: 153.9, last season: 152.5)
64. Jordan Kyrou, C, St. Louis Blues: (projected: 153.3, last season: 152.2)
65. Alex Ovechkin, W, Washington Capitals: (projected: 153.3, last season: 166.9)
66. Brad Marchand, W, Boston Bruins: (projected: 153.3, last season: 160.7)
Editor’s Picks
1 Related
Notes: Turning 20 in December, Michkov is our highest-projected newcomer to the NHL thanks to his 91 games of professional experience in the KHL. That should help him acclimate to the NHL game a little quicker. The Philadelphia Flyers also arguably have a better supporting cast than, say, the San Jose Sharks do for Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith. Ovechkin is now 39 years old. While I don’t doubt that he can push forward enough to eventually snap Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goals record, it might take some luck and all of the next two seasons to get there. Don’t forget the snail’s pace he started with last season: He only had nine goals in 44 games at the start of February. Players that feel a little too low here include Bratt, Connor and Hintz. Some of the best upside might reside with Lindholm if he happens to find great chemistry on the Bruins top line with Pastrnak, or with DeBrincat if the Red Wings offense takes a collective step forward.
Tier 8 – High ceilings, but also low floors
67. Kevin Fiala, W, Los Angeles Kings: (projected: 152.6, last season: 160.2)
68. Patrick Kane, W, Detroit Red Wings: (projected: 151.8, last season: 97.1)
69. Frank Vatrano, W, Anaheim Ducks: (projected: 150.3, last season: 190.8)
70. Jonathan Marchessault, W, Nashville Predators: (projected: 150.2, last season: 168.3)
71. Alexis Lafreniere, W, New York Rangers: (projected: 149.4, last season: 127.5)
72. Carter Verhaeghe, C, Florida Panthers: (projected: 149.3, last season: 157.4)
73. Leo Carlsson, C, Anaheim Ducks: (projected: 149.2, last season: 71.7)
74. Alex Tuch, W, Buffalo Sabres: (projected: 149.1, last season: 154.4)
75. Jamie Benn, W, Dallas Stars: (projected: 148.9, last season: 145.9)
76. Pavel Buchnevich, W, St. Louis Blues: (projected: 147.2, last season: 139.5)
77. Macklin Celebrini, C, San Jose Sharks: (projected: 146.8, last season: N/A)
78. Travis Konecny, W, Philadelphia Flyers: (projected: 146.2, last season: 158.4)
79. Evgeni Malkin, C, Pittsburgh Penguins: (projected: 145.6, last season: 146.8)
80. Bryan Rust, W, Pittsburgh Penguins: (projected: 145.3, last season: 138.8)
81. Tomas Hertl, C, Vegas Golden Knights: (projected: 144.9, last season: 103.8)
82. Brandon Hagel, W, Tampa Bay Lightning: (projected: 144.5, last season: 151.9)
83. Mats Zuccarello, W, Minnesota Wild: (projected: 144.1, last season: 136.4)
84. Jared McCann, W, Seattle Kraken: (projected: 142.7, last season: 143.1)
Notes: Regression candidates in this tier include Vatrano and Marchessault following their career-years in 2023-24, as well as Malkin and Zuccarello, who are now 38 and 37 years old, respectively. The best candidates for beating their projection are: Hertl (if he settles in as a Golden Knight), Kane (if the Red Wings click and his hip doesn’t) and Rust (if he stays healthy). Lafrenière and Carlsson are here in anticipation of a breakout season.
Tier 9 – Risk creeping in
Yegor Sharangovich of the Calgary Flames scored a career-high 31 goals last season. Brett Holmes/Icon Sportswire
85. Matt Duchene, C, Dallas Stars: (projected: 141.6, last season: 142.2)
86. Drake Batherson, W, Ottawa Senators: (projected: 141.2, last season: 150.9)
87. Teuvo Teravainen, W, Chicago Blackhawks: (projected: 140.7, last season: 117.3)
88. Owen Tippett, W, Philadelphia Flyers: (projected: 140.7, last season: 152.2)
89. Nikolaj Ehlers, W, Winnipeg Jets: (projected: 140.4, last season: 135.3)
90. Ryan O’Reilly, C, Nashville Predators: (projected: 140.2, last season: 157.5)
91. Lucas Raymond, W, Detroit Red Wings: (projected: 139.3, last season: 147.7)
92. Cutter Gauthier, W, Anaheim Ducks: (projected: 138.7, last season: 1.3)
93. Will Smith, C, San Jose Sharks: (projected: 138.6, last season: N/A)
94. Dylan Strome, C, Washington Capitals: (projected: 138.2, last season: 153.6)
95. William Eklund, W, San Jose Sharks: (projected: 137.2, last season: 122.2)
96. Nikolai Kovalenko, W, Colorado Avalanche: (projected: 134.8, last season: N/A)
97. Brayden Schenn, C, St. Louis Blues: (projected: 133.6, last season: 131.9)
98. Gustav Nyquist, C, Nashville Predators: (projected: 133.2, last season: 148.9)
99. Gabriel Vilardi, C, Winnipeg Jets: (projected: 132.6, last season: 90.1)
100. Yegor Sharangovich, C, Calgary Flames: (projected: 132.6, last season: 143.2)
101. Rutger McGroarty, W, Pittsburgh Penguins: (projected: 132.4, last season: N/A)
102. JJ Peterka, W, Buffalo Sabres: (projected: 132.3, last season: 115.8)
103. Boone Jenner, C, Columbus Blue Jackets: (projected: 132.1, last season: 125.9)
104. Adam Fantilli, C, Columbus Blue Jackets: (projected: 131.9, last season: 70.8)
105. Vladimir Tarasenko, W, Detroit Red Wings: (projected: 131.9, last season: 126.0)
106. Phillip Danault, C, Los Angeles Kings: (projected: 131.6, last season: 123.4)
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Notes: Here in Tier 9, it’s possible some aggressive fantasy managers might already have a full complement of forwards already (at the expense of their D and goaltending, of course). At this stage, we are getting close to replacement-level value being available in fantasy free-agency when the season opens. Don’t get too caught up in drafting based on projections anymore, as a point here and a point there don’t matter as much. Make sure you shift your focus to targeting the players you want/believe in. Who do I want from this tier? O’Reilly and Raymond standout as favorites for potential. Teravainen could also recapture his former fantasy glory if he rides with Bedard on and off the advantage. It will be very interesting to see how Kovalenko can possibly fit into the Avs top six, with the continued uncertainty surrounding both Gabriel Landeskog and Valeri Nichushkin. McGroarty has a real opportunity to find playing time in the Penguins top six, while Peterka gets to likely keep the top-line role he stole from Jeff Skinner last season.
Tier 10 – Into triple-digits
107. Quinton Byfield, C, Los Angeles Kings: (projected: 130.4, last season: 114.2)
108. Charlie Coyle, C, Boston Bruins: (projected: 130.1, last season: 150.8)
109. Dylan Guenther, W, Utah Hockey Club: (projected: 129.5, last season: 87.8)
110. Lawson Crouse, W, Utah Hockey Club: (projected: 129.3, last season: 133.6)
111. Jeff Skinner, W, Edmonton Oilers: (projected: 129.2, last season: 106.2)
112. Jonathan Huberdeau, C, Calgary Flames: (projected: 128.6, last season: 112.3)
113. Martin Necas, C, Carolina Hurricanes: (projected: 128.5, last season: 129.8)
114. Pierre-Luc Dubois, C, Washington Capitals: (projected: 128.2, last season: 102.7)
115. Anders Lee, W, New York Islanders: (projected: 128.0, last season: 122.6)
116. Jake Neighbours, W, St. Louis Blues: (projected: 127.6, last season: 122.8)
117. Tommy Novak, C, Nashville Predators: (projected: 127.1, last season: 96.3)
118. Tyler Bertuzzi, W, Chicago Blackhawks: (projected: 127.1, last season: 114.8)
119. William Karlsson, C, Vegas Golden Knights: (projected: 125.9, last season: 143.3)
120. Oliver Bjorkstrand, W, Seattle Kraken: (projected: 125.5, last season: 131.3)
121. Marco Rossi, C, Minnesota Wild: (projected: 125.2, last season: 102.7)
122. Blake Coleman, C, Calgary Flames: (projected: 125.1, last season: 148.9)
123. Rickard Rakell, W, Pittsburgh Penguins: (projected: 125.0, last season: 102.7)
124. Mikael Granlund, C, San Jose Sharks: (projected: 124.7, last season: 131.1)
125. Logan Stankoven, C, Dallas Stars: (projected: 124.5, last season: 33.6)
126. Chandler Stephenson, C, Seattle Kraken: (projected: 123.9, last season: 109.0)
127. Troy Terry, W, Anaheim Ducks: (projected: 123.6, last season: 114.4)
128. Nick Schmaltz, C, Utah Hockey Club: (projected: 123.5, last season: 131.9)
129. Ryan Hartman, W, Minnesota Wild: (projected: 123.4, last season: 128.3)
130. Adam Henrique, C, Edmonton Oilers: (projected: 122.1, last season: 145.4)
131. Patrik Laine, W, Montreal Canadiens: (projected: 121.8, last season: 27.6)
132. J.T. Compher, W, Detroit Red Wings: (projected: 121.6, last season: 118.4)
133. Maxim Tsyplakov, W, New York Islanders: (projected: 121.0, last season: N/A)
134. Dylan Cozens, C, Buffalo Sabres: (projected: 120.8, last season: 115.7)
135. Philipp Kurashev, C, Chicago Blackhawks: (projected: 120.8, last season: 121.0)
136. Trevor Moore, W, Los Angeles Kings: (projected: 120.8, last season: 155.1)
137. Valeri Nichushkin, W, Colorado Avalanche: (projected: 120.7, last season: 127.7)
138. Logan Cooley, C, Utah Hockey Club: (projected: 120.6, last season: 104.6)
Notes: We start to see more of the sleeper/breakout players show up as we cross past 100 total forwards. Byfield looks ready to start showing he can be the heir apparent to Kopitar for the Kings; Novak may get to center both Stamkos and Marchessault in Nashville; Stankoven may be a rookie, but has a playoff grind on his resume already; Rossi could break out if he cements top-line minutes for the Wild; Laine is a wild card since he is hitting the reset button on his career, yet again; Nichushkin still makes this list, and this is with conservatively estimating him being out until January.
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Tier 11 – The rest of the top 150
139. Matias Maccelli, W, Utah Hockey Club: (projected: 120.3, last season: 107.9)
140. David Perron, W, Ottawa Senators: (projected: 120.1, last season: 112.2)
141. Jack Quinn, W, Buffalo Sabres: (projected: 119.4, last season: 44.2)
142. Sam Bennett, C, Florida Panthers: (projected: 119.2, last season: 122.9)
143. Ivan Barbashev, C, Vegas Golden Knights: (projected: 118.8, last season: 118.7)
144. Eeli Tolvanen, W, Seattle Kraken: (projected: 118.8, last season: 135.8)
145. Jean-Gabriel Pageau, C, New York Islanders: (projected: 118.6, last season: 118.2)
146. Shane Wright, C, Seattle Kraken: (projected: 118.6, last season: 13.8)
147. Matty Beniers, C, Seattle Kraken: (projected: 118.5, last season: 99.0)
148. Mark Stone, W, Vegas Golden Knights: (projected: 118.2, last season: 113.1)
149. Tyler Seguin, C, Dallas Stars: (projected: 117.2, last season: 114.5)
150. Andrei Kuzmenko, W, Calgary Flames: (projected: 117.1, last season: 99.5)
Notes: As you fill out your roster, remember the projections are getting tighter and tighter. There are another 25 forwards that I have projected to be within one quality game of breaking into this list, not the least of which includes Jake DeBrusk, Tyler Toffoli, Tom Wilson, Cole Perfetti, Connor McMichael and Kent Johnson. Projections this minute by myself or anyone else are going to be wildly fluid by the time you are drafting forwards to your bench, so target upside over established players. You can always dip into free agency early in the season if things aren’t breaking right for your picks.
