Week 2 betting by the numbers: Manning surges in Heisman

• Doug Greenberg

• David Purdum

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  David Purdum

  ESPN Staff Writer

  • Joined ESPN in 2014
  • Journalist covering gambling industry since 2008

Sep 16, 2024, 09:00 AM ET

On Saturday night, in a matter of minutes, the only backup quarterback listed in most sportsbooks’ Heisman Trophy odds rose to among the favorites.

Texas backup QB Arch Manning began Saturday at 150-1 to win the Heisman Trophy at ESPN BET. By halftime of the Longhorns’ game against UTSA, Manning’s odds had moved to 16-1.

Manning took over for starter Quinn Ewers, who suffered an abdominal strain in the second quarter. Ewers had been the consensus Heisman favorite entering the weekend, but now his odds (18-1 as of Sunday at ESPN BET) are longer than his backup’s.

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Manning passed for 223 yards and accounted for five touchdowns. He threw a touchdown pass on his first attempt after replacing Ewers and also scored on an impressive 67-yard run.

A spokesperson for ESPN BET said 150-1 odds were appropriate for Manning before Ewers’ injury.

“Once Ewers went down, customers were keen to get on board with Arch, and his price was quickly moved accordingly for a player throwing touchdowns for the new No. 1 team in the country,” the spokesperson said in an email. “As Ewers’ status remains somewhat up in the air, we expect the Arch Manning hype to continue for at least one more week.”

Caesars Sportsbook’s Joey Feazel updates the odds to win the Heisman Trophy each Saturday night. He said he tries to keep Manning’s odds shorter than other competing sportsbooks.

“He got some action early on,” Feazel said of the betting interest on Manning. “We don’t typically have backup quarterbacks listed during the season.”

Over the 24 hours from Saturday night to Sunday night, there had been more bets — and more money wagered — on Manning to win the Heisman Trophy than any other player at BetMGM. DraftKings also reported an uptick in action on Manning, with approximately one in every four Heisman bets on him since Saturday.

“Texas looks like they are ready to enter the conversation alongside Georgia and Ohio State, ” John Murray, executive director of the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, told ESPN. “If Ewers is hurt or reinjures himself and they go with Manning, he would have every opportunity to shine. They have a lot of high-profile games on their schedule, as well.”

According to ESPN’s Pete Thamel, the news regarding Ewers’ injury is better than expected, and he may miss only one game.

Ewers’ Heisman odds were 22-1 on Sunday at ESPN BET. He was off the board at other sportsbooks.

While the Longhorns’ quarterback situation works itself out, Texas is moving up the board at sportsbooks. The Longhorns are now the favorites, ahead of Georgia, to win the SEC at ESPN BET.

Top odds to win Heisman Trophy, as of Sept. 15, 2024 (ESPN BET)

NFL underdogs roll

In Week 2, underdogs dominated again, winning seven games straight up in Sunday’s early slate and cruising to a 10-5 record against the spread overall.

The biggest win came from the Las Vegas Raiders, who were 8.5-point dogs to the Baltimore Ravens and as long as +2000 in-game while trailing in the second half. Las Vegas won 26-23. The Raiders became the fourth underdog of at least 7.5 points since 2015 to win a game outright after trailing by 10 in the fourth quarter, per ESPN Stats & Information.

Raiders-Ravens was the most-bet game of the day at ESPN BET with the bulk of the action on Baltimore. The Ravens attracted the most money of any team to cover the spread at BetMGM and, at Caesars, one bettor put $227,000 on the Ravens moneyline at -455 odds. The bet would have netted around a $50,000 profit. Oof.

It’s the second week in a row that the biggest favorite of the week lost outright, following the New England Patriots‘ upset of the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1. With the Tampa Bay Buccaneers also coming through against the Detroit Lions in Week 2, 2024 marks the first time since 2003 that three favorites of more than seven points have lost in the first two weeks of the season, according to ESPN Research.

It’s a tough look for the public, who generally back favorites week-to-week.

“We had a great morning. I’d imagine almost every bookmaker you speak to will be telling you that. Cowboys losing [to the Saints] was the biggest winner for us but we also did great on the Ravens game, the Jaguars game, and the Lions game,” said John Murray, executive director of the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas. “Even with losing all three afternoon games, it was a very good day for us overall.”

More big underdogs winning means more carnage at the Circa Survivor contest, which lost 3,990 entries on the early slate, including 2,304 from Ravens backers.

MVP shuffle

Has Baker Mayfield really entered the MVP conversation? Steven King/Icon Sportswire

Josh Allen made huge strides in the MVP odds race last week and was the odds leader for about two hours following an uncharacteristically poor performance from Patrick Mahomes on Sunday. After the dust settled, though, it was the two-time MVP on top at +275, followed by C.J. Stroud at +450 and Allen at +600.

The biggest movers following Sunday Week 2, though, were undoubtedly Baker Mayfield and Derek Carr. The two veteran quarterbacks have been resurgent in their second seasons with their respective teams, leading the NFL in passer rating en route to 2-0 starts.

Mayfield entered the season as a 100-1 long shot to win MVP at ESPN BET and improved to +7500 after an impressive Week 1. But, following the Buccaneers’ huge upset of the Lions on Sunday, the 2018 first overall draft pick is now +3000, good for 11th on the odds board. He took 15% of tickets to win the award on Sunday at DraftKings.

Carr was 150-1 at ESPN BET and saw odds as long as 300-1 at BetMGM before Week 1. Since then, the New Orleans Saints signal caller has put on a passing clinic in his first two games, rocketing up to +3500 at ESPN BET.

BetMGM reports that, since Friday morning, Carr has 22.1% of bet share to win MVP — the most of any player. On Sunday alone, Carr took 30% of bets and 31% of handle at DraftKings.

The book’s highest handle share over that time period belongs to Kyler Murray, who has taken 38.2% of money since Friday morning. The Arizona Cardinals quarterback began the season at +5000, fell to +6000 after an underwhelming Week 1, but now sits at +3000 right alongside Mayfield.

And, it would be remiss not to mention the stunning start for Sam Darnold, who was not even offered at ESPN BET before the season. He debuted at 150-1 after Week 1 and has climbed all the way to 100-1.

Surprising Saints

Entering the season, no team had attracted fewer bets to win the Super Bowl than the Saints. There were more Super Bowl bets on the Carolina Panthers than on New Orleans this offseason at BetMGM. Two weeks into the season, though, New Orleans is off to a 2-0 start, with two blowout wins, including Sunday’s 44-19 thumping of the Dallas Cowboys.

• 0.1: The percentage of money wagered on the odds to win the Super Bowl that was on the Saints at BetMGM sportsbooks in August, least of any team.

• 100-1: The Saints’ odds to win the Super Bowl entering the season at ESPN BET. The Saints are now 35-1 after their 2-0 start.

• 32.5: The Saints have covered the spread by an average margin of 32.5 points per game in their opening wins over the Panthers and Cowboys. It’s the highest average cover margin through two games in the Super Bowl era, according to ESPN Stats and Info.

NFL odds and ends

$9.37: The amount wagered by a bettor with FanDuel on a three-leg parlay featuring all props involving Cardinals receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. The bettor took Harrison to have under 4.5 receptions, over 110 yards receiving and score at least two touchdowns. Harrison finished with four catches for 130 yards with two touchdowns. The bettor won $8,638.29 off their $9.37 bet.

29 minutes, 21 seconds: The amount of game time it took for the Cowboys and Saints to go over 46.5 points, the first game to hit its over before halftime this season. The wager was the most bet over by tickets of the day at BetMGM and ESPN BET, with both books reporting over 78% of bets.

16-3: Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow‘s career NFL record against the spread when an underdog of at least three points. The Bengals lost to the Kansas City Chiefs 26-25 as 6.5-point underdogs.

22: The number of legs on a $35 NFL parlay that won $3,399.72 with FanDuel on Sunday.

THEY WON A 22-LEG SGP+ 🤯

What a WILD ride

via IG / peter_patsatsis | #fanduel pic.twitter.com/OnCLl92trf

— FanDuel Sportsbook (@FDSportsbook) September 15, 2024

22: The number of contestants who failed to submit their selections for Week 2 in Circa Survivor, an NFL survivor contest with a $1,000 buy-in and a $14.2 million grand prize.

0: The number of touchdowns scored by Indianapolis Colts‘ RB Jonathan Taylor. At ESPN BET, more money was bet on Taylor to score a touchdown against the Green Bay Packers on Sunday than any other player in the sportsbook’s TD-scorer market.

73.5: The number of rushing yards Los Angeles Chargers RB J.K. Dobbins eclipsed his over/under (57.5) by. The over on Dobbins’ rushing yards attracted more bets than any other player prop at BetMGM.

55-1: Saints RB Alvin Kamara‘s odds to score three or more touchdowns against the Cowboys on Sunday. Kamara finished with three rushing touchdowns and one receiving.

College football odds and ends

$100: The size of PGA golfer Justin Thomas‘ bet on Alabama to win the national championship at +950 odds. Thomas placed the first bet at the new Fanatics sportsbook at Ocean Casino in Atlantic City.

9.5: Florida State’s season win total ahead of Week 1. The Seminoles clinched the under with Saturday’s loss to Memphis that dropped them to 0-3.

-2.5: The early line on the Sept. 28 showdown between Georgia and Alabama has the Bulldogs as 2.5-point favorites at FanDuel.

-8: The opening line on Tennessee-Oklahoma game in Norman. At minus-8, it’s first time Oklahoma has been more than a touchdown underdog at home since 1998 (vs. Texas Tech).

.564: Underdogs in FBS-FBS matchups have covered the spread in 56.4% of games over the first three weeks.

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