Sep 12, 2024, 07:00 AM ET
Midway through September, the 2024 playoff picture looks mostly set.
While no team has secured a postseason berth yet or even clinched a division, a number of clubs are comfortably leading their respective divisions and will soon lock up playoff positioning.
The only division race that remains close is the American League East, while the National League wild-card chase will seemingly go down to the wire between the Braves and Mets for the final spot. What else might the final weeks of the regular season bring?
Our expert panel has combined to rank every team based on a combination of what we’ve seen so far and what we already knew going into the 162-game marathon that is a full baseball season. We also asked ESPN MLB experts David Schoenfield, Bradford Doolittle, Jesse Rogers, Alden Gonzalez and Jorge Castillo to weigh in with an observation for all 30 teams.
Week 23 | Second-half preview | Preseason rankings
Record: 88-58
Previous ranking: 2
Trea Turner‘s time with the Phillies has been marked by streaky production. We all remember his struggles last season until he finally broke out in August — and he had an OPS over 1.000 in the postseason, only to go 0-for-8 in the final two losses to Arizona. This season, he had a huge first half, hitting .349 with a .941 OPS despite a hamstring strain and stint on the IL. Then he hit .250 with a .670 OPS in August. He’s raking again in September, although it’s worth noting he’s basically stopped stealing bases since the hamstring injury (10 of his 15 steals came early in the season). The Phillies will need a hot Turner in October. — Schoenfield
Record: 87-59
Previous ranking: 1
The Dodgers, ravaged by injuries throughout their rotation, got the encouraging sign they longed for on Tuesday, when Yoshinobu Yamamoto stood on the mound for the first time in nearly three months and looked every bit as dominant as he did before his shoulder injury. Yamamoto pitched four innings, struck out eight batters, gave up a run (largely due to a couple of misplays by his infielders) and displayed dominant stuff — a fastball that consistently reached the upper 90s, a devastating curveball and a splitter, with relatively sharp command of all three. Next up: Tyler Glasnow (elbow tendonitis) will take part in a two- to three-inning simulated game on Friday, which is expected to be his last step before also getting activated off the injured list. — Gonzalez
Record: 84-62
Previous ranking: 3
While the fan base clamored for top prospect Jasson Dominguez‘s promotion, another Yankees rookie quietly continued making his case for hardware. On Monday, Austin Wells padded his résumé for American League Rookie of the Year in a loud way with a 440-foot go-ahead three-run home run and a double in the Yankees’ win over the Royals. Wells leads all rookies with 3.7 fWAR, and he tops all catchers with at least 230 plate appearances in on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS since June 6.
His emergence was enough for the Yankees — desperate for offense beyond Juan Soto and Aaron Judge at the time — to make him their primary cleanup hitter on July 20. He has flourished in the role protecting Judge, who has gone without a home run since Aug. 25, to give the Yankees another steady power source down the stretch. — Castillo
Record: 83-62
Previous ranking: 4
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A lot of industry insiders like Milwaukee as their sleeper pick come October. The team has been here before — the underdog that people overlook in favor of the big market, big payroll teams. The Brewers have had varying degrees of success in that role, but perhaps they’re best suited for it this time. They’re the only team in baseball that ranks in the top six in runs scored and runs given up, and they play great defense. They also steal just enough bases to keep the opposing battery honest. The bigger test might be on the mound, where the Brewers don’t have a lot of playoff experience, but have had plenty of success this regular season. — Rogers
Record: 84-62
Previous ranking: 8
The Guardians have once again created a little separation and, as has been the case all season, Emmanuel Clase has been a big reason. Is it time to consider this the best season a closer has ever had? And maybe even that he’s a Cy Young candidate? Clase is 4-2 with 44 saves in 46 chances (and Cleveland won both games he blew a save) and a 0.67 ERA.
The best season from a modern closer is Eric Gagne in 2003, the last reliever to win the Cy Young. He was 2-4 with a 1.20 ERA and 55-for-55 in save chances. He held batters to a .374 OPS; Clase is at .403. Brad Lidge also had a perfect season for the Phillies in 2008 — 41-for-41, plus seven more in the playoffs as the Phillies won the World Series (although his ERA was 1.95). Dennis Eckersley and Mariano Rivera also had some great seasons. Clase is up there with this group and should finish high in the Cy Young voting. — Schoenfield
Record: 83-64
Previous ranking: 5
Barring an enormous collapse, the Orioles will reach the postseason for the second straight year. But they haven’t played like a postseason team over the past two-plus months. Since July 5, the Orioles are 27-32 — good for the 11th-best record in the AL. The offense isn’t clicking consistently, injuries have ravaged the starting rotation and Craig Kimbrel‘s downturn has destabilized the bullpen. And yet, the Orioles remain in contention for the AL East title. Time is still on their side to get back on track. But only for so long. — Castillo
Record: 82-65
Previous ranking: 6
It doesn’t seem as if Manny Machado has been a Padre that long. But he set the franchise’s home run record on Tuesday against the Mariners, hitting his 164th to move past Nate Colbert for first on the all-time list. It provides us with a good opportunity to take a big-picture look at Machado’s season. The All-Star third baseman struggled through the first couple of months in the wake of offseason elbow surgery, with a .241/.293/.361 slash line at the end of May. Since then, he’s slashing .297/.349/.541 with 21 home runs and 65 RBIs in 83 games. The team, unsurprisingly, has thrived. As Manny goes, so do the Padres. That has basically been the case since he arrived in San Diego six years ago. — Gonzalez
Record: 77-68
Previous ranking: 7
Wait, who is that newcomer DHing for the Astros? It’s Kyle Tucker, back from a three-month stay on the IL for what can only be described as a mystifying lower-body injury. The Astros were more than a little circumspect about revealing details about Tucker’s malady until it leaked that he fractured a shin bone. As of Tuesday, Tucker has yet to play consecutive days since his return and has not started a game on the field. When those streaks will end is unclear, and the Astros aren’t likely to tell us. What we do know is that for Houston to be at its best in October, it needs Tucker back in the fold. — Doolittle
Record: 82-64
Previous ranking: 9
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Their rotation is finally whole, and the ace of the staff, Zac Gallen, has put together back-to-back scoreless outings. But the D-backs are still waiting on some key starters to get going. Eduardo Rodriguez, who didn’t debut until Aug. 7, has been charged with 13 runs (12 earned) on 19 hits in his last 13⅓ innings. Brandon Pfaadt has a 6.91 ERA over his past five starts. Ryne Nelson gave up five runs in 4⅔ innings against the Astros his last time out. And Merrill Kelly, who missed nearly four months with a shoulder strain, was pulled from his start Wednesday — in which he gave up three runs in four innings — with a hamstring cramp, though he’s not expected to miss his next outing. The D-backs would really love to see some more positive signs from their starters heading into October. — Gonzalez
Record: 80-67
Previous ranking: 12
The Royals again have shown themselves to be unusually resilient. Kansas City dropped seven in a row, a skid that started the September stretch run. Even worse, it lost one of its top RBI producers, Vinnie Pasquantino, to a thumb injury. Rather than going into a tailspin, the Royals reeled off four straight wins and swept a weekend series against division foe Minnesota.
General manager J.J. Picollo has been pushing the right buttons since last season ended and continued his hot streak with the late-August acquisitions of Tommy Pham, Robbie Grossman and Yuli Gurriel. The Royals have a number of personnel in prime awards positioning, but perhaps only one seemingly has an honor all but locked up. It’s hard to make a case for anyone but Picollo for Executive of the Year. — Doolittle
Record: 80-66
Previous ranking: 13
The Mets might look back to Wednesday’s victory as the key game to remember if they make the playoffs. Toronto’s Bowden Francis took a no-hitter into the ninth, leading 1-0, but Francisco Lindor led off the inning with a home run on an 0-2 meatball. The Mets then tacked on five more runs off the Toronto bullpen. The schedule isn’t easy the rest of the way — two series against the Phillies and a season-ending road trip to Atlanta and Milwaukee — but with 11 wins in their past 13 games, the Mets are still riding high as they battle the Braves. — Schoenfield
Record: 79-67
Previous ranking: 10
The Braves had one of their biggest wins of the season Sunday, when they tied the Blue Jays with a run in the bottom of the ninth and then won it 4-3 with two runs in the bottom of the 11th — on a bunt single, Toronto error, intentional walks and a walk-off fielder’s choice. But Atlanta followed that up with a 1-0 loss to the Reds, wasting a strong start from Charlie Morton as the offense registered just two hits. It may come down to those three games against the Mets the final week of the season in Atlanta. The season series is tied, so whoever wins that series will hold the all-important tiebreaker advantage as well. — Schoenfield
Record: 78-68
Previous ranking: 11
This season in Minnesota has been a story of overcoming injuries. But the Twins are running low on gas at the worst time. Still without Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa, they lost four straight games and six of seven before beating the Angels on Tuesday. Correa has been out since the All-Star break. Buxton has been on the IL since Aug. 15 with right hip inflammation — and exited a recent rehab game early with pain in the hip. The good news is that the pair is on track to return soon to fortify a club whose hold on a wild-card spot is loosening. The bad news is another setback could jeopardize the Twins’ status for the rest of the regular season and playoffs — if they manage to reach the postseason. — Castillo
Record: 75-71
Previous ranking: 14
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First baseman Michael Busch is on his way to a solid rookie season that included a four-hit game this week against his former team, the Dodgers. Busch won’t be the top choice for Rookie of the Year among voters due to a deep rookie roster in the NL this year, but that doesn’t take away from what he’s accomplished. His 114 OPS+ at the plate is a good number, but the biggest steps he’s taken this year have actually come on defense. Busch could very well be the long-term option for the Cubs at first base, or a decent trade chip, considering his salary is in line for any team in the majors. — Rogers
Record: 75-71
Previous ranking: 16
Could the Tigers make a late push for a wild-card spot in the AL? They sure are making it interesting. They won their third straight game Tuesday, moving just three games back of the division-rival Twins for the final playoff spot. The Tigers operated in clear deal mode before the trade deadline, most notably parting with frontline starter Jack Flaherty. But they’re also 37-25 since the start of July, during which they have a plus-58 run differential. Tarik Skubal has continued to lead the charge, but their entire staff has a 3.32 ERA in that stretch — second only to the Astros for the major league lead. — Gonzalez
Record: 74-72
Previous ranking: 15
Rich Hill‘s return to the majors two weeks ago made for a neat story. It was his fourth stint with his hometown Red Sox, and at 44 years old, he was the oldest player in the majors in his 20th season. But the Red Sox, still hunting for wins in pursuit of the final AL wild-card spot, cut Hill loose after just four relief appearances. The left-hander allowed two runs over 3⅔ innings. He reportedly still wants to pitch. If he does sign with another club this season, however, he won’t be eligible to pitch in the playoffs. — Castillo
Record: 74-72
Previous ranking: 17
Cal Raleigh, as usual, rates among the MLB leaders in defensive value behind the plate. As usual, any offense he creates is gravy. And, as usual, he’s provided above-average production with his take-and-rake approach at the plate. Raleigh’s 30th homer tied the career high he set last season and allowed him to continue to climb the Seattle leaderboard for long balls by a catcher. Though he’s in just his third full season as Seattle’s primary backstop, Raleigh surpassed his current manager — Dan Wilson — with his 89th career homer for the Mariners. Only Mike Zunino (95) has more dingers for the franchise as a primary catcher. — Doolittle
Record: 73-72
Previous ranking: 18
St. Louis can squarely pin its woes this season on an offense that had another bad week, hitting .194 with just nine walks and 35 strikeouts. That showing dropped the team OPS below .700 for the year. Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado simply haven’t been as dangerous this season, with the latter player struggling to keep his OPS over .700. The Cardinals weren’t even this bad at the plate when they finished last in the division in 2023. They won’t come close to having a player hit 30 home runs this season. That’s a problem. — Rogers
Record: 72-74
Previous ranking: 19
The Giants will soon be eliminated from postseason contention, marking the seventh time in eight years that they’ll miss the playoffs. The 2024 season was supposed to be different. The likes of Blake Snell, Matt Chapman, Jorge Soler and Jung Hoo Lee were brought in, and Bob Melvin was poached from the division-rival Padres to be the new manager. But very little changed. Speaking to The Athletic recently, Melvin, a Bay Area native, said: “This is everything I’ve dreamed of coming in here. And for it not to go well — and my expectation was that it would go well — makes it probably the hardest year I’ve had.” — Gonzalez
Record: 71-75
Previous ranking: 20
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Before Tuesday, Edwin Uceta was just another under-the-radar example of the Rays’ ability to transform journeyman pitchers into run prevention weapons. The right-hander had a 0.75 ERA, holding opponents to a .391 OPS, in 24 outings this year after pitching for three teams over the past three seasons. Then he plunked Nick Castellanos with a first-pitch fastball after giving up three runs in ⅓ of an inning to the Phillies, doubling his ERA. Philly, understandably, wasn’t happy with Uceta, even though the pitcher later said he didn’t do it on purpose. Benches cleared. Bryce Harper had some choice words. Uceta was ejected — and handed a three-game suspension on Wednesday — and the Rays lost. — Castillo
Record: 70-76
Previous ranking: 23
All season, we wondered what the Texas rotation would look like as October approached. The answer looks like it’s going to be both remarkable and bittersweet. The remarkable part is that with top prospect Kumar Rocker due to make his big-league debut, he’ll join a rotation with fellow rookie (and college teammate) Jack Leiter, future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer (slated to start Saturday), two-time Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom (starting on Friday) and two-time world champion Nathan Eovaldi. With Scherzer and Eovaldi likely headed to free agency, it may not be a configuration we see anymore. But someday, history snoops may pull up the Baseball Reference page of the 2024 Rangers and say, “These guys were all in the same rotation at the same time?” The bittersweet part of it: This is happening after Texas’ defense of its first title is all but over. — Doolittle
Record: 71-76
Previous ranking: 22
Righty Nick Martinez has quietly put together a good year in his first season with the Reds. He’s appeared as a reliever and starter — though he’s probably better suited out of the pen. That ability to go back and forth has always been an underrated aspect in the game as it takes a healthy attitude — and arm — to be able to do both. Martinez has provided everything the Reds could have asked, both on and off the field. There will be interest in him if he opts out of his deal. — Rogers
Record: 69-78
Previous ranking: 21
The Blue Jays’ focus since punting on the season at the trade deadline has been about evaluating players for the future. Spencer Horwitz figures, in some way, to be part of that future. The 26-year-old rookie has been a revelation since getting called up to the majors in early June, slashing .277/.362/.471 with 12 home runs in 83 games split between second base, first base and designated hitter. He ranks second on the club in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage — all behind All-Star Vladimir Guerrero Jr. They are the only two qualified Blue Jays with an OPS above .830. On Saturday, Horwitz notched his first career four-hit game and his first with three extra-base hits while clubbing two home runs. His emergence is one of the few positives in a dismal season for Toronto. — Castillo
Record: 70-76
Previous ranking: 24
The Pirates decision to keep Derek Shelton as their manager next season despite a second-half swoon is probably a good one, as they’ve played to their talent level. That doesn’t mean there won’t be pressure in Pittsburgh early next season considering the team will have one of the best pitchers on the mound from Day 1. Building around Paul Skenes should be the Pirates’ No.1 goal. He can carry a franchise but can’t do it all by himself. A free agent bat would go a long way to signaling they’re very much interested in winning sooner rather than later. — Rogers
Record: 64-82
Previous ranking: 25
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The Athletics find diamonds in the rough as well as any team, perhaps as much out of necessity as anything else. One of this season’s discoveries was 28-year-old righty Osvaldo Bido, who they picked up as a minor-league free agent last winter. Bido was placed on the IL this week with a wrist problem that will likely end his late-blooming rookie season that was an unqualified success. Bido logged 63⅓ innings between the bullpen and nine starts, finishing 5-3 with a 3.41 ERA. He struck out about a batter per inning but flourished by inducing soft contact which led to a .252 BABIP and .192 opponent average. Replacing him on the roster is lefty prospect Brady Basso. — Doolittle
Record: 65-80
Previous ranking: 26
One thing for Nationals fans to look forward to: They’ll have money to spend in the offseason. While they still owe Stephen Strasburg $35 million for three more seasons, Patrick Corbin ($35 million) and Trevor Williams ($7 million) come off the payroll as free agents (Joey Gallo‘s option also won’t be picked up). That’s aside from whether the Nationals increase their overall payroll as well. Finding a right-handed starter in free agency to go with Jake Irvin and all the lefties makes sense. The outfield may be set with Dylan Crews, James Wood and Jacob Young, but they are one of the teams who, in theory, could feasibly go after Juan Soto. Upgrading first and third base will also be main priorities. — Schoenfield
Record: 60-86
Previous ranking: 27
We recently speculated about potential call-ups for the last-place Angels — and one of them came to fruition. Twenty-year-old righty Caden Dana was summoned and made his first two big-league starts last week. The first outing was solid: six innings and two runs allowed against the punchless Mariners. The second was not as good, as he gave up five runs and three homers while facing just 11 batters against Texas. Still, it’s remarkable that Dana is in the majors. According to Fangraphs, he is just the eighth Angels pitcher to make at least two starts in his age-20 season or earlier. Topping the list is Frank Tanana (39 starts), Mike Witt (21) and Rudy May (19). — Doolittle
Record: 54-92
Previous ranking: 28
One guy getting a chance to play down the stretch is first baseman/third baseman Jonah Bride. He’s 28 years old and struggled in two chances with the A’s in 2022 (hitting .204 in 187 plate appearances) and 2023 (hitting .170 in 106 PAs). He’s always hit in the minors — .342 in 2022, .305 in 2023 and, while he hit just .267 in Triple-A this season, he posted a .409 OBP with more walks than strikeouts. He doesn’t have the power you would prefer from a corner infielder, but he’s been getting on base with the Marlins — something they’ve lacked in the lineup in recent years. — Schoenfield
Record: 54-92
Previous ranking: 29
The Rockies faced a really good Brewers lineup over the weekend and held their own, with Ryan Feltner and Kyle Freeland in particular pitching very well. But then they went to Detroit and allowed 11 runs on Tuesday, absorbing their 91st loss of the season. So it goes. If the Rockies hope to avoid a second straight 100-loss season, they’ll have to win at least nine of their final 16 games. It’s a modest goal, but it certainly won’t be easy. Four of their five remaining series will come against teams that are still realistically in the playoff mix, including two of them against the first-place Dodgers. — Gonzalez
Record: 33-114
Previous ranking: 30
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Chicago has continued to use this season to debut pitchers, with the latest righty Sean Burke, a third-round pick from 2021. He threw 53 pitches in relief against the Guardians on Tuesday, giving up an unearned run on three hits while striking out three over three innings. The outing earned him a start in his next time out, joining young players such as Jonathan Cannon, Nick Nastrini, Davis Martin and, of course, Garrett Crochet as relievers getting their feet wet as starters this year. The White Sox also hosted 2024 first-round pick, Hagen Smith, earlier this week at Guaranteed Rate Field. Their pitching infrastructure is the lone bright spot in an otherwise miserable season. — Rogers
