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NFL Nation, ESPNSep 6, 2024, 07:50 PM ET
The Week 1 NFL schedule for the 2024 season is stacked with great matchups, and we’ve got you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend.
Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game, and analytics writer Seth Walder makes a bold prediction for each matchup. The ESPN Stats & Information team provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, while our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection. Fantasy analyst Eric Moody finds fantasy football X factors, and three analysts — Kalyn Kahler, Moody and Walder — give us final score picks for every game. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.
Let’s get into the full Week 1 slate, including the Dallas Cowboys battling the Cleveland Browns and Matthew Stafford‘s Sunday night visit to Detroit. It all culminates with a “Monday Night Football” matchup between the New York Jets and the San Francisco 49ers on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)
Jump to a matchup:
PIT-ATL | ARI-BUF | NE-CIN
TEN-CHI | HOU-IND | JAX-MIA
CAR-NO | MIN-NYG | LV-LAC
DEN-SEA | DAL-CLE | WSH-TB
LAR-DET | NYJ-SF
Thursday: KC 27, BAL 20
1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: ATL -3.5 (41.5 O/U)
Steelers storyline to watch: With so much attention on the Steelers’ quarterbacks, their offseason defensive additions flew under the radar. That ends Sunday, when inside linebacker Patrick Queen will be a key part of the plan to slow RB Bijan Robinson. The Steelers can count on Robinson, who despite inconsistent usage in his rookie season had 976 yards and four touchdowns, to be a significant factor in the Falcons’ attack. The Steelers’ run defense ranked in the bottom half of the league, allowing 4.3 yards per carry last season, but adding Queen to play alongside thumper Elandon Roberts should shore up that unit. — Brooke Pryor
Falcons storyline to watch: If the Falcons’ anemic pass rush, bolstered by the acquisition of edge rusher Matthew Judon, is going to break out, there might not be a better opportunity than Week 1. Steelers QB Russell Wilson has been sacked more than any signal-caller in the league since he was drafted in 2012 (527), and Pittsburgh is dealing with injuries on its offensive line. Judon will need help from Arnold Ebiketie (six sacks in 2023) for a team that was dead last in pass rush win rate in 2023 (30.9%). — Marc Raimondi
Stat to know: The Steelers have a 15-2-1 record against the Falcons. Pittsburgh’s last loss to Atlanta was in 2006.
Bold prediction: Steelers cornerback Joey Porter Jr. will record an interception. Porter ranked fourth among all outside corners in yards allowed per coverage snap last year, per NFL Next Gen Stats — incredibly impressive for a rookie. Now a Week 1 starter, this is the year he becomes a star — beginning with a pick off QB Kirk Cousins. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts. Atlanta’s offense should be more balanced under new coordinator Zac Robinson, which is great news for Pitts along with improved quarterback play from Cousins. The Steelers’ defense ranks seventh in pass rush win rate (46.6%), and wideout Drake London faces a tough matchup against Porter. Pitts should find success underneath against a Steelers team that ranked in the top half of the league in fantasy points allowed to tight ends last season. See Week 1 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Falcons were 5-12 ATS last season, tied with the Chargers for the worst record in the NFL. .
Kahler’s pick: Falcons 20, Steelers 12
Moody’s pick: Falcons 24, Steelers 21
Walder’s pick: Falcons 19, Steelers 16
FPI prediction: ATL, 58.8% (by an average of 3.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: Can Wilson, Fields redeem Steelers’ offense? … Kirk Cousins says Falcons ‘have chance to do something’
1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: BUF -6.5 (48.5 O/U)
Cardinals storyline to watch: Sunday will be the highly anticipated debut of Cardinals rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr., and there’ll be plenty to watch for. How will he be used by Cardinals offensive coordinator Drew Petzing and QB Kyler Murray? How will the Bills play him? How will he handle his first NFL game? Those around him have raved about his maturity and how his NFL learning curve has been shortened because of that maturity and his family background. — Josh Weinfuss
Bills storyline to watch: How exactly this Bills offense looks in Week 1 will be intriguing to see. The wide receiver room underwent major change this offseason, and Joe Brady is taking over the offensive coordinator role full-time. The first-team offense, now healthy, saw limited playing time in the preseason, with eight snaps for QB Josh Allen. This will be the first significant game action the group will get. It will be a good opportunity for Allen and the offense to start the year at home against a Cardinals defense that allowed the second-most points per game in 2023 (26.8). — Alaina Getzenberg
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Stat to know: The Bills lost 45% of receiving yards and 52% of receiving touchdowns from last season with the departure of Stefon Diggs (Houston) and Gabe Davis (Jacksonville).
Bold prediction: Bills wide receiver Khalil Shakir will record seven or more receptions. Rookie Keon Coleman might one day turn into this team’s No. 1 receiver, but Shakir is likely the most reliable wideout right now, especially after posting a strong 2.1 yards per route run last season. I’m confident he’ll do damage against a weak Cardinals defense. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Bills running back James Cook. The Cardinals had the league’s worst run defense last season, ranking 32nd in rushing yards allowed per game (143.2). With minimal offseason additions, Arizona’s defensive front remains vulnerable, setting the stage for Cook to have a standout performance. He averaged 19.6 touches and 16.4 fantasy points per game during Weeks 11-18 last season. See Week 1 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Murray is 12-7-1 ATS in his career when getting at least four points, including 10-4-1 ATS on the road. .
Kahler’s pick: Cardinals 21, Bills 20
Moody’s pick: Bills 31, Cardinals 24
Walder’s pick: Bills 33, Cardinals 17
FPI prediction: BUF, 67.7% (by an average of 7.3 points)
Matchup must-reads: How Murray, Cardinals hope a trip to L.A. translates to in-season wins camaraderie … The evolution of Buffalo’s roster and QB Allen’s leadership expectations
1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: CIN -8.5 (40.5 O/U)
Patriots storyline to watch: The Patriots’ offensive line is likely going to be without projected starters Vederian Lowe (oblique) at left tackle and Sidy Sow (ankle) at left guard, which makes a formidable challenge against the Bengals’ high-end defensive line that much tougher. New England ranked last in the NFL in pass block win rate (43.4%) in 2023, and settling on the “best five” offensive linemen in 2024 training camp has been an evolving process — making it arguably the team’s biggest question mark entering the season. — Mike Reiss
Bengals storyline to watch: Even though the Bengals are an 8.5-point favorite, New England’s secondary will serve as a good test for Cincinnati’s passing attack. Quarterback Joe Burrow is in his first game back from a wrist injury. Andrei Iosivas is making his debut as the team’s slot receiver, and things are still up in the air with star wideout Ja’Marr Chase, who has hardly practiced as he awaits a new deal. New England features a starting cornerback combo of Jonathan Jones, who had strong defensive coverage numbers last season, and Christian Gonzalez, a 2023 first-round pick coming off a season-ending shoulder injury. — Ben Baby
Stat to know: Since 2020, the Bengals are 1-7 in the first two weeks of the season, tied with the Vikings for the worst record in the NFL.
Bold prediction: The Bengals will score a defensive or special teams touchdown. I don’t know what the new kickoff will bring, but I have to think at least in Week 1 — when teams might unleash a trick or two — there has to be an elevated chance of a kick returned for a score. And given the state of the Patriots’ offense, particularly its offensive line, I think a catastrophic error at some point isn’t that unlikely. I actually have a model for this, and it gives Cincinnati a better chance of a D/ST score than anyone in Week 1 (17% chance, though take the number with a grain of salt given the new kickoff). — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson. The Bengals’ aging defensive line struggled last season, ranking 26th in run stop win rate (29.2%), and 2024 might not be better, especially without DJ Reader. Expect Stevenson to get most early-down and goal-line touches in offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt’s new Patriots offense. He has averaged 15.1 touches and 74.3 yards per game so far in his career. See Week 1 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: In the past 25 seasons, teams laying over a touchdown (at least 7.5 points) in Week 1 are 20-36 ATS. .
Kahler’s pick: Bengals 28, Patriots 13
Moody’s pick: Bengals 24, Patriots 13
Walder’s pick: Bengals 20, Patriots 16
FPI prediction: CIN, 75.0% (by an average of 10.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: Brissett’s journey to becoming Patriots’ starting QB … Bengals believe if Chase plays, he’ll make impact … What’s next for Patriots QB Maye?
1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: CHI -3.5 (44.5 O/U)
Titans storyline to watch: There isn’t much film on Titans defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson since this is his first time fully running his own show, but he cited aggressive coordinators Gregg Williams and Todd Bowles as major influences on his philosophy. The rule of thumb is always to attack a rookie quarterback, so expect Wilson’s defense to blitz relentlessly while mixing coverages pre- and post-snap to confuse QB Caleb Williams and make him uncomfortable. When the Titans do attack Williams, the pass rush must be coordinated, with no “independent contractors,” as outside linebacker Harold Landry III put it. — Turron Davenport
Bears storyline to watch: Williams aims to become the first quarterback drafted No. 1 to win his first career start since David Carr in 2002 — the past 15 QBs selected with the top pick are 0-14-1 in their first start. Chicago wants Williams to lean on the players around him, and he is the only rookie in NFL history to start his team’s season opener with two receivers who had 90-plus receptions the previous season (Keenan Allen, 108; DJ Moore, 96). “In the early parts of the game and early downs, he’s just asked to play point guard,” coach Matt Eberflus said of Williams. “Have a great operation, play point guard, get the ball to our skill either by handing it off or throwing it to him and letting them do the running and moving around and gaining the yards.” — Courtney Cronin
Stat to know: Bears running back D’Andre Swift finished with 745 rushing yards before contact last season, which was the second most in the NFL behind Christian McCaffrey (888).
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Why fantasy managers should believe in Caleb Williams and the Bears
Liz Loza raves about the Bears’ offense and tells Bears fans “there’s real reason to be hopeful” going into the season.
Bold prediction: Titans linebacker Arden Key will record at least one sack. My model gives him a 43% chance, but I like Key — an underrated player who had a 20% pass rush win rate last year — to get it done against Williams. While a superb prospect, Williams did have a propensity to take sacks in college (83 in three seasons). — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Titans running back Tyjae Spears. The Bears’ defense improved significantly in the second half of last season. However, it still allowed the most receiving yards to running backs. Spears, who finished last season with the ninth-most targets among RBs (70) and 838 total yards, should continue being a reliable receiving valve out of the backfield for QB Will Levis. See Week 1 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Quarterbacks drafted No. 1 overall are 0-14-1 outright and 1-14 ATS in their first career starts since 2003. .
Kahler’s pick: Bears 20, Titans 17
Moody’s pick: Bears 21, Titans 14
Walder’s pick: Titans 23, Bears 20
FPI prediction: CHI, 64.6% (by an average of 6.0 points)
Matchup must-reads: DeAndre Hopkins returns to Titans practice, could play opener … Bears’ Williams OK with game plan for Titans, not concerned about stats … Titans look the part on paper after $228M spending spree
1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: HOU -3 (48.5 O/U)
Texans storyline to watch: QB C.J. Stroud threw for 648 yards and four touchdown passes in two games against the Colts during his rookie season. That was without newly added All-Pro receiver Stefon Diggs. Now Stroud’s playmakers include Diggs with the receiver duo of Nico Collins and Tank Dell, alongside tight end Dalton Schultz. Stroud could have another strong performance in Week 1 against Indianapolis. — DJ Bien-Aime
Colts storyline to watch: The Colts are counting heavily on their defensive front to create consistent pressure against Stroud to compensate for a young secondary. Indianapolis sacked Stroud six times in the first meeting last season, adding 18 QB pressures. In the second meeting, with Houston’s offensive line at full strength, the Colts sacked Stroud twice and produced just eight pressures. What will Sunday bring? — Stephen Holder
Stat to know: The Colts are winless in 10 straight season openers, which is the longest active streak and the second longest in NFL history.
Bold prediction: Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson will post a QBR under 30 for the game. While he flashed skill last season, Richardson still wasn’t that efficient, posting just a 45 QBR in his limited action. But this is more about the Texans’ defense, which I think could be very difficult for Richardson to beat. Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter are going to give the second-year QB a hard time. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Texans running back Joe Mixon. The Colts’ defense struggled to contain running backs last season, giving up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the position. Mixon faces minimal competition for snaps and touches in Week 1, setting him up for a huge role in a high-scoring game. The Texans should have no trouble moving the ball through the air against the Colts’ inexperienced secondary. See Week 1 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: This is the first time Houston has been a Week 1 favorite since 2017, snapping the second-longest Week 1 favorite drought in the NFL (Giants, 2016). .
Kahler’s pick: Colts 18, Texans 17
Moody’s pick: Texans 30, Colts 21
Walder’s pick: Texans 30, Colts 7
FPI prediction: HOU, 53.7% (by an average of 1.3 points)
Matchup must-reads: Texans not running from Super Bowl expectations … Colts GM Chris Ballard defends approach amid mixed results
1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: MIA -3.5 (48.5 O/U)
Jaguars storyline to watch: The new guys on offense — receivers Gabe Davis and rookie Brian Thomas Jr. — were added with one main goal in mind: Stretch the field more. Davis has averaged 16.7 yards per catch in his four-year career, and Thomas averaged 17.3 yards per catch last season at LSU. QB Trevor Lawrence was already coming off the best year of his career in terms of deep throws — 13-of-42 on throws of at least 25 yards in the air for 505 yards — and the Jaguars have set the stage for him to take more shots down the field. — Mike DiRocco
Dolphins storyline to watch: The Jaguars got 27.5 sacks out of Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker last season, and on paper, the two pass rushers have an advantage against a Dolphins offensive line breaking in three new starters. New center Aaron Brewer returned to practice this week after a three-week absence, but coach Mike McDaniel said it’s going to take a team effort to slow down the Jacksonville duo. Dolphins receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle also returned from minor injuries this week, giving the league’s top offense in 2023 its leading pass catchers. — Marcel Louis-Jacques
Stat to know: Hill has averaged 109.9 receiving yards per game in eight season openers. That’s the most career receiving yards per game in season openers in NFL history (minimum five games played).
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Bold prediction: Dolphins running back De’Von Achane will break off a 40-plus-yard play from scrimmage. Despite carrying the ball just 103 times last season, Achane ranked second in rush yards over expectation (behind only Christian McCaffrey). Now that he’s healthy to start the 2024 season, I expect him to put up huge numbers. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert. Even in a backfield with Achane, Mostert shouldn’t be forgotten. He averaged 0.51 fantasy points per snap (second best of any player) and had 19 rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line last season (tied for most in the league). The Jaguars did improve their defensive line this offseason, but they are still a middle-of-the-road unit. The Dolphins won’t shy away from the running game against Jacksonville. See Week 1 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Last season, the Dolphins were 9-2 ATS as favorites (8-1 outright) and 1-6 outright/ATS as underdogs. .
Kahler’s pick: Dolphins 31, Jaguars 21
Moody’s pick: Dolphins 28, Jaguars 21
Walder’s pick: Dolphins 34, Jaguars 21
FPI prediction: MIA, 59.8% (by an average of 4.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: Can Jaguars’ Hines-Allen build a legacy in Jacksonville? … Dolphins rookie DE Robinson taking tips from OT Armstead
1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: NO -4 (41.5 O/U)
Panthers storyline to watch: Eight of QB Bryce Young‘s 62 sacks last season came against New Orleans, with half of those from inside pressure. That’s why the Panthers spent $150 million on upgrading the middle of the line with guards Damien Lewis and Robert Hunt and moved veteran guard Austin Corbett to center. It is also why new coach Dave Canales, who has a reputation for turning around quarterbacks, spent the offseason asking Young to get rid of the ball in no more than 2.7 seconds and brought in receiver Diontae Johnson, who can create separation to get open quickly. All will be crucial against what could be a top-10 Saints defense. — David Newton
Saints storyline to watch: The Saints benched former left tackle Trevor Penning last season after the offensive line allowed 13 sacks in four games and quarterback Derek Carr got hurt. Now Penning is back in the lineup at right tackle, with rookie first-round pick Taliese Fuaga manning the left side. The Saints spent the offseason overhauling the offense and hired new coordinator Klint Kubiak to implement a new scheme. Protecting Carr will be a key thing to watch early in the season as the Saints try to work out any issues with the new-look offensive front. — Katherine Terrell
Stat to know: The Panthers were the only winless team on the road last season (0-9). Their last road win was a 10-7 victory over the Saints on Jan. 8, 2023.
Bold prediction: Saints running back Alvin Kamara will record 55 or more receiving yards. A slew of factors are pointing me in that direction. The Saints have a leaky offensive line and the Panthers have a sneaky solid cornerback duo in Michael Jackson and Jaycee Horn. Plus, Carolina defensive tackle Derrick Brown will handle stuffing the Saints’ other running back, Jamaal Williams, up the middle. Kamara catching passes provides the path of least resistance for the offense. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Panthers running back Chuba Hubbard. With rookie Jonathon Brooks starting the season on injured reserve, Hubbard is set to thrive in 2024 as the Panthers’ featured back. He’s likely to benefit from the scheme of Canales, who helped Rachaad White see 336 touches last season in Tampa Bay. Like White, Hubbard has a three-down skill set and should be heavily relied on by the Panthers against the Saints. See Week 1 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Unders were 12-5 in Panthers games last season, the highest under percentage in the NFL. The Panthers were 6-11 ATS last season with the second-worst average cover margin in the NFL (minus-5.6). .
Kahler’s pick: Saints 17, Panthers 9
Moody’s pick: Saints 17, Panthers 14
Walder’s pick: Panthers 20, Saints 17
FPI prediction: NO, 64.4% (by an average of 5.9 points)
Matchup must-reads: Will Young shine under new Panthers coach Canales? … Chase Young, backup QBs and more: Five questions looming for Saints
1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: MIN -1.5 (41.5 O/U)
Vikings storyline to watch: The Vikings are kicking off one of the least-anticipated seasons of their recent history. ESPN Analytics gives them a 14% chance to make the playoffs, their lowest by far since ESPN began projecting postseason appearances in 2015. Rookie QB J.J. McCarthy‘s season-ending knee injury put Sam Darnold at the helm of a campaign that includes the NFL’s fifth-most difficult schedule. The good news is that the Vikings are slight favorites in Week 1 at the Giants, the most winnable game on paper in the first half of the season. — Kevin Seifert
Giants storyline to watch: It’s the first career game for 2024 No. 6 pick Malik Nabers, the Giants’ clear-cut No. 1 receiver. He gets a favorable matchup in Week 1 against a Vikings defense that allowed a healthy 80.6 yards per game and eight touchdowns to No. 1 receivers last season. It will be an offseason cornerback acquisition for Minnesota, either Stephon Gilmore or Shaquill Griffin, trying to contain the explosive Nabers who — if training camp is any indication — should be targeted early and often as a rookie this season. — Jordan Raanan
Stat to know: Darnold has a 42 total QBR over his career, the worst among the 26 QBs with 50 starts since he entered the league in 2018.
Bold prediction: Giants rookie tight end Theo Johnson — who could have a major role — will record at least four receptions. QB Daniel Jones has averaged under 7 air yards per target in each of the past three seasons. And I have to imagine facing the constant blitzes from Brian Flores’ defense will make him more likely to get rid of the ball quickly. Johnson could be the beneficiary. — Walder
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Justin Jefferson primed for fantasy stardom in Week 1
Check out some stats about Justin Jefferson as he begins his season vs. the Giants in Week 1.
Fantasy X factor: Vikings running back Aaron Jones. The Giants’ defense gave up the 10th-most fantasy points allowed per game to running backs last season. Despite new defensive coordinator Shane Bowen and some offseason additions, New York isn’t expected to improve much. Jones should get plenty of touches on a Vikings team that ranked 29th in rushing yards (1,553) and 31st in rushing touchdowns (seven) last season. He finished strong with three straight games of 14-plus fantasy points with the Packers in 2023. See Week 1 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Giants have covered six straight games as a home underdog (9-3 ATS under coach Brian Daboll). .
Kahler’s pick: Vikings 17, Giants 14
Moody’s pick: Giants 21, Vikings 17
Walder’s pick: Vikings 26, Giants 18
FPI prediction: NYG, 49.9% (by an average of 0.3 points)
Matchup must-reads: Is Darnold ready to be Vikings’ season-long starting QB? … Brian Burns may be the missing piece for Giants’ D … What Vikings GM Adofo-Mensah learned from disastrous 2022 draft
4:05 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: LAC -3 (40.5 O/U)
Raiders storyline to watch: Wide receiver Davante Adams did not have much on-field work this offseason with new QB Gardner Minshew as Adams missed significant time. So over the past two weeks, the duo has been focusing on their chemistry. “We’ve been improving every day … it’s something that we’re determined to continue to build on throughout the entire year,” said Adams, who can become one of four players in NFL history with at least 100 catches in four straight seasons. “We want to continue to get better as the year goes on, when it counts more and more as we get deeper and deeper in the season.” — Paul Gutierrez
Chargers storyline to watch: As part of their schedule release rollout, the Chargers’ social team posted Raiders wideout Adams next to a garbage-flavored Pop-Tart graphic. The post upset Adams, who took to the “Up & Adams Show” to remind the team and the fans of his success against them since he was traded to the Raiders. The Chargers’ secondary will look to back up the social team’s trash talk against Adams, who has averaged 123.5 yards against Los Angeles in four games as a Raider. — Kris Rhim
Stat to know: This will be Jim Harbaugh’s first game as an NFL coach since the 2014 season. He has the fifth-best win percentage (.695) as a head coach in NFL history.
Bold prediction: The Raiders will score less than 14 points. They have talented players on this offense, don’t get me wrong. Adams is a superstar, No. 2 receiver Jakobi Meyers is permanently underrated and Kolton Miller is a very reliable tackle. But I’m just having a hard time buying Minshew without Shane Steichen — his playcaller in Indianapolis — as a serious threat. I think the Raiders stumble out of the gates. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Raiders running back Zamir White. The Chargers’ defense was among the worst in yards allowed per game and struggled against the run in 2023. Despite Harbaugh and new defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, their front seven should still be weak. With the Raiders’ QB situation being less than ideal, expect Las Vegas to lean on White. He had 20-plus touches in each of his final four games last season and finished as the eighth-best fantasy RB in that span. See Week 1 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Raiders were 12-5 ATS last season, tied with the Lions for the best record in the NFL. Unders were 11-6 in Raiders games. .
Kahler’s pick: Raiders 20, Chargers 17
Moody’s pick: Chargers 34, Raiders 17
Walder’s pick: Chargers 23, Raiders 13
FPI prediction: LAC, 63.3% (by an average of 5.2 points)
Matchup must-reads: Longest-tenured Raider Kolton Miller is heart of O-line … Harbaugh is trying to change the Chargers’ losing culture; here’s how he’s doing it
4:05 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: SEA -6 (41.5 O/U)
Broncos storyline to watch: Broncos rookie QB Bo Nix hasn’t taken a regular-season snap but has already carved out a slice of franchise history — he’s the first rookie to be named a team captain since Hall of Fame RB Floyd Little in 1967. And when he opens the game against the Seahawks he will be the first rookie quarterback to start for coach Sean Payton and the first rookie signal-caller to start a Broncos opener since another Hall of Famer, John Elway, did in 1983. So expectations are swirling around Nix, whose inaugural game will be held in a tough place to play against a creative defensive coaching staff in its first year. How Nix handles it will bear watching. — Jeff Legwold
Seahawks storyline to watch: The Mike Macdonald era in Seattle begins on Sunday. In addition to Macdonald’s head-coaching debut, the Seahawks’ opener will mark the unveiling of the new schemes they’ve installed on both sides of the ball. The defense Macdonald has imported from Baltimore — the best in the NFL over his two seasons as coordinator — is built around being difficult for opponents to decipher. Nix will have to do that amid the din of Lumen Field. — Brady Henderson
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Stat to know: The Broncos have lost four of their past five season openers. Each loss was by one score, including one-point losses in each of the past two seasons.
Bold prediction: Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith will record 200 passing yards in the first half. I think there’s a chance that Ryan Grubb’s offense gets off to a lightning-fast start with a pass-heavy approach that leads to big numbers for Smith and a blowout win for the Seahawks. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Broncos running back Javonte Williams. He’s expected to lead Denver’s backfield in touches and will be up against a Seahawks defense that gave up the third-most fantasy points per game to backs last season. Williams should see plenty of action as both a runner and receiver in Nix’s first regular-season start. Denver’s running backs had a league-leading 32% target share in 2023. See Week 1 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Broncos were 6-11 ATS last season. Over the past two seasons, they are 13-21 ATS, tied with the Saints for the worst in the NFL. .
Kahler’s pick: Seahawks 24, Broncos 14
Moody’s pick: Seahawks 23, Broncos 20
Walder’s pick: Seahawks 31, Broncos 14
FPI prediction: SEA, 66.7% (by an average of 6.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: Welcome to the NFL, rookie: Nix will face significant early tests … Seahawks leaving new Smith deal ‘aside’ for now … How Broncos fell into the NFL cellar and what’s next … Woolen entering Year 3 with more to prove
4:25 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: CLE -2.5 (40.5 O/U)
Cowboys storyline to watch: The Cowboys will be starting two rookies on the offensive line for the first time since 2011, and one of them, left tackle Tyler Guyton, will be going against the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, Myles Garrett. The other, center Cooper Beebe, will be asked to make the calls against a defense that was the best at home last season. The Cowboys will not ask Guyton to block Garrett alone all the time, but there will be times when he will have to face Garrett one-on-one. Quarterback Dak Prescott has confidence in the two rookies, but their first game at a difficult venue against a top defense will be a challenge. — Todd Archer
Browns storyline to watch: The Browns will unveil a revamped offense they hope can get QB Deshaun Watson back to Pro Bowl form, but Cleveland has questions beyond its starting signal-caller. Left tackle Jedrick Wills Jr. told reporters he won’t start as he continues to come back from a season-ending knee injury, which could force right tackle Jack Conklin to move to the left side, a position he hasn’t played since college. It would be a tough transition for Conklin, who is returning from his own season-ending knee injury, against a pass rush led by Cowboys edge rusher Micah Parsons. — Daniel Oyefusi
Stat to know: Wide receiver CeeDee Lamb is five receptions away from being the fastest Cowboys player to reach 400 career receptions, passing Dez Bryant (80 games).
Bold prediction: Browns wide receiver Cedric Tillman will score a touchdown. The 2023 third-rounder turned heads this offseason and figures to play into Cleveland’s offensive plans this season. Plus, the Cowboys are hurting at corner with DaRon Bland out 6-8 weeks with a foot injury. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Browns running back Jerome Ford. The Cowboys’ defense led the league in pass rush win rate last season (59.5%) but was unable to stop the run, finishing 27th in run stop win rate (28.6%). It would be wise for the Browns to be balanced on offense even with running back Nick Chubb on the physically unable to perform list. Last season, in relief of Chubb during Week 2 against the Steelers, Ford scored 24.1 fantasy points, and he averaged 12.9 points during Weeks 3-17. See Week 1 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Browns were 7-0 ATS as home favorites last season. .
Kahler’s pick: Cowboys 30, Browns 21
Moody’s pick: Cowboys 24, Browns 21
Walder’s pick: Browns 28, Cowboys 24
FPI prediction: DAL, 51.0% (by an average of 0.4 points)
Matchup must-reads: Cowboys coach McCarthy sees ‘opportunity’ in lame-duck season … Browns’ Watson has ‘no doubt’ he’s still one of NFL’s elite QBs … Cowboys keeping Elliott fresh for RB committee role … How Browns hope to unlock Watson, offense in 2024
4:25 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: TB -3.5 (42.5 O/U)
Commanders storyline to watch: Washington will open the season with a new starting quarterback for the eighth consecutive season. Rookie QB Jayden Daniels is also the third first-round pick to start for the organization since Robert Griffin III in 2012. Washington has placed a lot of faith in Daniels, but he will face a tough task against a defense that blitzed the third most in the NFL last season. As an LSU senior in 2023, Daniels ranked fifth in the nation with a 93.5 QBR vs. the blitz — with 17 touchdown passes and no interceptions and only 10 sacks in 117 plays. — John Keim
Editor’s Picks
2 Related
Buccaneers storyline to watch: While the Bucs had the seventh-best defense last season in terms of points allowed per game (19.1), they surrendered 65 pass plays of 20 or more yards — second most. They also surrendered six rushing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks — which tied for second most. Given Daniels’ well-documented deep ball and rushing prowess, these are potential vulnerabilities with some relatively unproven guys on defense stepping into bigger roles at edge rusher and cornerback. “[Daniels is] like Lamar Jackson 2.0,” Bucs defensive back Tavierre Thomas said. — Jenna Laine
Stat to know: The Commanders allowed 30.5 points per game last season, which was the fourth most by any team over the past decade.
Bold prediction: Bucs cornerback Jamel Dean will intercept Daniels. While Terry McLaurin is a good receiver, he has never been an elite separator, so Dean figures to be around the ball plenty when he’s on the Commanders’ No. 1 wideout. No matter how good a prospect Daniels is, he’s still a rookie in his pro debut. He’ll probably provide an interception opportunity or two. — Walder
Injuries: Commanders | Buccaneers
Fantasy X factor: Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin. Last season, the Commanders’ defense gave up the second-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers and struggled mightily against slot receivers. Washington’s group of cornerbacks is still a concern. With new Buccaneers offensive coordinator Liam Coen’s scheme, Godwin is expected to play mainly in the slot. He has cleared 1,000 receiving yards in each of the past three seasons, averaging 8.6 targets per game. See Week 1 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Bucs QB Baker Mayfield is 13-26-1 ATS in his career as a favorite, the worst mark of any signal-caller with at least 30 starts as a favorite in the Super Bowl era. .
Kahler’s pick: Commanders 21, Buccaneers 17
Moody’s pick: Buccaneers 30, Commanders 20
Walder’s pick: Buccaneers 23, Commanders 17
FPI prediction: TB, 62.3% (by an average of 5.0 points)
Matchup must-reads: Bucs QB Mayfield looking to take ‘next step’ in 2024 … How vets Ertz, Ekeler earned roles to help rookie QB Daniels
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | ESPN BET: DET -4.5 (52.5 O/U)
Rams storyline to watch: Rams WR Puka Nacua missed three weeks during training camp with a knee injury but is on track to play in Week 1. Last season, he not only set the NFL rookie record for receptions (105) and receiving yards (1,486) during the regular season, but then had his biggest game of the season in the Rams’ playoff loss to the Lions. In that game, Nacua had nine catches for 181 yards and a touchdown, setting the NFL record for most receiving yards by a rookie in a playoff game. — Sarah Barshop
Lions storyline to watch: Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs says he’s healthy after being sidelined during the preseason with a hamstring injury. Gibbs is once again expected to be a big part of the Lions’ offense. Lions coach Dan Campbell said Gibbs, who made the Pro Bowl as a rookie, looks good coming off the injury and heading into Year 2. “When you can run like he runs — I mean this guy can run — then if you don’t [test] that speed in practice at least once or twice a day, you set yourself up for something [bad] to happen on Sunday,” Campbell said. — Eric Woodyard
Stat to know: Rams RB Kyren Williams had seven straight games with 100 scrimmage yards to end last season, which is the longest active streak in the NFL.
Bold prediction: The Rams will generate positive EPA per play on designed carries. There’s some blind Sean McVay faith in here because Detroit allowed minus-.09 EPA per play on designed carries last season, but I’m definitely interested to see how the new interior of the Rams line — with Kevin Dotson and Jonah Jackson joining Steve Avila — fares. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Lions quarterback Jared Goff. His connection with wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown is undeniable, and he’s also throwing to a breakout candidate in receiver Jameson Williams. Goff is up against a Rams defense that allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks last season. Also, Goff has averaged 25.2 fantasy points per game at home over the past two seasons. See Week 1 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Lions were 11-6 to the over last season, tied with the Browns and Colts for the highest over percentage. .
Kahler’s pick: Lions 30, Rams 24
Moody’s pick: Lions 35, Rams 31
Walder’s pick: Lions 34, Rams 27
FPI prediction: DET, 63.5% (by an average of 5.2 points)
Matchup must-reads: Rams rookies Verse and Fiske were college friends, now pro teammates … Lions now a destination for free agents, GM Holmes says
play
2:10
Stephen A. curious whether Lions can live up to lofty expectations
Stephen A. Smith picks the Lions to win the NFC North but questions whether the team can win a Super Bowl.
Monday, 8:20 p.m. ET | ESPN/ABC/ESPN+ | ESPN BET: SF -4.5 (43.5 O/U)
Jets storyline to watch: Quarterback Aaron Rodgers faces a familiar opponent in his highly anticipated return from Achilles surgery. Rodgers has a 6-3 regular-season record against the 49ers — with 20 touchdown passes and two interceptions. He will be looking to snap a Week 1 slump. In his past three openers, he compiled two losses, no touchdown passes and one season-ending injury. — Rich Cimini
49ers storyline to watch: If the 49ers’ offense and the Jets’ defense are anything like they were in 2023, this could be one of the most entertaining battles of the season. Since the 1970 merger, this will be the first time the team that led the NFL in offensive yards per play (49ers, 6.6) meets the defense that led the NFL in fewest yards allowed per play (Jets, 4.6) from the prior season in an opener. Jets coach Robert Saleh was the defensive coordinator under Niners coach Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco from 2017 through 2020, which only makes the matchup of Saleh’s defense versus Shanahan’s offense even more interesting. — Nick Wagoner
Stat to know: In 2023, the Jets allowed the fewest passing yards to wide receivers by any team since the 2016 Broncos (1,588).
Bold prediction: 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk will record under 20 receiving yards against cornerback Sauce Gardner. I think Gardner’s Defensive Player of the Year campaign begins in Week 1 by shutting down the newly paid Aiyuk. It will help that Aiyuk has been out of practice for so long and might be rusty. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: The Jets’ secondary. With Gardner leading the way, New York allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers last season. The total on ESPN BET doesn’t suggest a high-scoring game. This could be a great spot for running back Christian McCaffrey and tight end George Kittle. See Week 1 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: In three seasons under Saleh, the Jets are 20-31 ATS, tied for the second-worst record in the NFL. .
Kahler’s pick: 49ers 21, Jets 13
Moody’s pick: 49ers 21, Jets 17
Walder’s pick: 49ers 20, Jets 16
FPI prediction: SF, 64.1% (by an average of 6.0 points)
Matchup must-reads: Jets coach: ‘Like finding change’ in couch if Reddick shows … Aiyuk back practicing with 49ers … Jets coach Saleh looking to ‘reconnect’ the dots … 49ers’ Williams ends holdout, reaches $82.66M deal
Friday game
Friday, 8:15 p.m. ET | Peacock | ESPN BET: PHI -2.5 (49.5 O/U)
Packers storyline to watch: Only the Titans picked off fewer passes last season than the Packers’ seven. Under new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley, Green Bay showed a knack for picking off passes in training camp, especially from a safety position that was overhauled and now includes Xavier McKinney, Javon Bullard and Evan Williams. Considering quarterback Jalen Hurts threw an interception in each of his last four games to end the 2023 season, this could give the Packers an early opportunity to show that their defense will be different. — Rob Demovsky
Eagles storyline to watch: Running back Saquon Barkley makes his Eagles debut. If it’s anything like what he showed in practice this week, the fans in Sao Paulo, Brazil, are in for a show. “He made a run at practice [Monday] and I just remember — I was wearing sunglasses, it was sunny, I was just kind of taking my sunglasses off and looking at a couple of coaches like, ‘All right, this is awesome that we got him here,'” coach Nick Sirianni said. The Eagles believe Barkley, who appeared in 14 games for the Giants last season and finished with 962 rushing yards and six touchdowns, will thrive behind this offensive line and alongside playmakers such as Hurts, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. He’ll face a Packers team that finished 28th in rushing yards allowed in 2023 (128.3 YPG). — Tim McManus
Stat to know: Hurts ranked third among QBs with 605 rushing yards in 2023. The Packers tied for 29th in rushing yards allowed by opposing quarterbacks (419).
Bold prediction: Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown will record 100 or more receiving yards. The Eagles’ offense vs. the Packers’ defense pits two new schemes against each other, so there are a lot of unknowns. With that uncertainty, I want to bet on player skill, which Brown has in abundance. He recorded an 80-plus open score in ESPN’s receiver tracking metrics in each of the past three seasons, so no matter the system, he’ll be open. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Packers wide receiver Jayden Reed. The Eagles gave up the most fantasy points to wide receivers last season, especially struggling against slot receivers. Reed, who lined up in the slot 67% of the time in 2023, could perform well against a Philadelphia secondary that’s gone through a lot of changes. He scored 15-plus fantasy points in seven of his past eight games. See Week 1 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Packers coach Matt LaFleur is 20-7 against the spread (ATS) and 16-11 outright in his career as an underdog. Both are the best records among coaches with at least 15 games as an underdog in the Super Bowl era. .
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Stephen A.: Hurts is a bigger MVP candidate than Love
Stephen A. Smith says Jalen Hurts has shown he has more MVP potential than Jordan Love.
Kahler’s pick: Packers 28, Eagles 24
Moody’s pick: Packers 30, Eagles 23
Walder’s pick: Eagles 24, Packers 23
FPI prediction: PHI, 57.5% (by an average of 3.2 points)
Matchup must-reads: Why sending Packers, Eagles to Brazil was no small feat … Eagles look to bridge Sirianni, Hurts divide … Walker’s path to replacing Packers’ LT Bakhtiari
