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Eric Moody, ESPNSep 3, 2024, 11:00 AM ET
- Former manager at a Fortune 100 financial services company, now living my dream creating fantasy and sports betting content about the NFL, NBA, and WNBA for ESPN.
With instant-impact-type players like Caleb Williams, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers, the NFL’s rookie class of 2024 is highly anticipated for football fans and fantasy managers.
And for good reason.
April’s NFL draft set a record with 23 offensive players selected in Round 1, including each of the first 14 picks. It also saw six quarterbacks taken in the first round.
So which first-year players should you target in fantasy drafts? Who will outperform their average draft position? And which rookies are worth keeping an eye on in keeper and dynasty formats for next season and beyond?
This column is built on answering those questions as we navigate the season ahead. Join us every week as we track the rookie performances — both good and bad — throughout the season.
Quarterbacks
Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders (Average draft position: 109.1)
Daniels has top-10 upside at the quarterback position as a rookie. The 2023 Heisman Trophy winner and No. 2 pick in the NFL draft was the only player in FBS history with over 12,000 career passing yards and 3,000 rushing yards. With a solid supporting cast, including veteran receiver Terry McLaurin, Daniels is positioned for success. Daniels’ dual-threat ability gives him high fantasy potential for 2024 and beyond. However, keep in mind the Commanders will have new starters at center, left guard and left tackle on an offensive line that gave up the second-most sacks last season.
Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (ADP: 122.0)
Williams is coming off a brilliant collegiate career, having thrown for over 10,000 yards. Like Daniels, the 2022 Heisman winner has rushing potential, which gives him QB1 upside. Williams’ supporting cast, featuring DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and rookie Rome Odunze, is even more impressive than Daniels’. According to ESPN Stats & Information, the No. 1 pick will be the first quarterback in NFL draft history selected in the top five to throw to multiple players who had at least 1,200 receiving yards in the previous season, which adds to the appeal.
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Bo Nix, Denver Broncos (ADP: 167.2)
Nix will be the first rookie to start at quarterback for the Broncos since John Elway in 1983. He’s also the first quarterback Sean Payton has drafted in the first two rounds of his head-coaching career. Nix set the FBS single-season record for completion percentage (77.4%) last year and is highly experienced with 61 starts and 1,936 pass attempts in college. For context, Drew Brees set the NFL record for completion percentage with Payton as his coach in 2018. Nix is firmly on the QB3 radar in superflex leagues.
Drake Maye, New England Patriots (ADP: 169.9)
The No. 3 overall pick begins the season as a QB3 in fantasy terms but remains someone to keep an eye on in Superflex formats. Over the past two collegiate seasons, Maye accumulated 9,076 total yards, the second most in the FBS. He’s also a strong runner, with 953 rushing yards on scrambles since 2022, trailing only Daniels. While the Patriots’ offense might not be a fantasy powerhouse in 2024, Maye’s dual-threat ability makes him worth monitoring, especially given the team’s struggling offensive line.
Running backs
Jonathon Brooks has the highest ADP among rookie RBs even though he’ll miss at least the first four games. Jacob Kupferman/Getty Images
Jonathon Brooks, Carolina Panthers (ADP: 131.3)
The Panthers placed Brooks on the PUP/NFI list to start the season as he recovers from a torn ACL suffered last November while at Texas. That designation means he’ll be out for at least the first four games. He had an impressive 1,139 rushing yards (sixth in FBS) and broke or evaded 63 tackles, the second most in FBS, at the time he was injured. Brooks is the all-purpose back the Panthers desperately need, especially after they managed only nine rushing attempts of 20 or more yards and seven rushing touchdowns in 2023. He’s best drafted as an RB4 right now, but he has the potential to be a league winner in 2024.
Blake Corum, Los Angeles Rams (ADP: 152.5)
The Rams ran the ball effectively last year and drafted Corum in the third round to bolster their backup situation behind Kyren Williams, who averaged nearly 22 touches per game in 2023. Corum handled 505 rushing attempts, 2,708 rushing yards and 45 rushing touchdowns during his final two seasons at Michigan and is capable of a heavy workload. If Williams misses time, Corum could become a strong RB1 candidate. In the meantime, he’s firmly on the RB4 radar.
Trey Benson, Arizona Cardinals (ADP: 155.2)
Benson is one of this season’s best insurance policies behind 29-year-old James Conner, who hasn’t played a full season in his career. Benson scored 23 rushing touchdowns during his final two seasons at Florida State, tying for ninth in the FBS, and averaged an impressive 7.7 yards per carry outside the tackles. The Cardinals averaged 5.0 yards per rush last season, second only to the Dolphins at 5.1. With Conner set to be a free agent after this season, Benson is an upside RB4 and intriguing option for keeper leagues.
Editor’s Picks
1 Related
Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (ADP: 168.4)
Rachaad White remains the clear starter, but with Chase Edmonds on IR, Irving’s versatility opens a clearer path to fantasy relevance. He’s proven as a runner with 2,238 rushing yards during his final two seasons at Oregon, ranking 10th in the FBS. Irving is also a strong receiver, leading all FBS running backs with 56 receptions in 2023. Consider selecting Irving near the end of your draft or keep him on your watch list.
Jaylen Wright, Miami Dolphins (ADP: 169.1)
If Wright’s available in your league, consider stashing him now. Raheem Mostert, though reliable, is 32 years old and has missed three games because of injuries in the past two seasons. The Dolphins lead RB, De’Von Achane, missed six of 17 games last season due to injury. If either of them miss time, Wright could be a league winner in a Dolphins’ offense that ranked third in total yards per game in 2023. Wright led Tennessee in rushing yards the past two seasons and excels in yards after contact. He’s a skilled receiver out of the backfield and ran the 40-yard dash in 4.38 seconds. There’s lots to like here.
MarShawn Lloyd, Green Bay Packers (ADP: 170.0+)
Lloyd is dealing with a hamstring injury but has avoided injured reserve, unlike AJ Dillon, who was placed on season-ending IR because of a neck injury. Once healthy, Lloyd could have standalone value as a backup behind starter Josh Jacobs. In the interim, Emanuel Wilson will step in as the backup to Jacobs. Lloyd ranked near the top in the FBS for yards per attempt and yards after contact per rush in 2023 at USC. He’s not someone to roster right now, but keep him on your watch list.
Ray Davis, Buffalo Bills (ADP: 170.0+)
Add Davis to your watch list because he’s backing up James Cook, who averaged 19.6 touches and 16.4 fantasy points from Weeks 11-18 with Joe Brady as the offensive coordinator. Davis was the first player in SEC history to have a 1,000-yard rushing season at two different schools (Kentucky and Vanderbilt) and scored 21 total touchdowns in 2023, the third most in the FBS.
Kimani Vidal, Los Angeles Chargers (ADP: 170.0+)
The Chargers have a new offensive coordinator in Greg Roman who is known for his run-heavy schemes with the Baltimore Ravens. From 2019-2022, Baltimore’s offense finished in the top three in the league in rushing in each of those seasons. Keep Vidal on your watch for now since he’s behind Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins. The rookie amassed 2,792 rushing yards during his final two seasons of college, most in the FBS. The Chargers also have an offensive line that’s expected to be one of the better units in the league, which adds to the appeal.
Wide receivers
Arizona’s Marvin Harrison Jr. is the first rookie off the board in virtually all fantasy drafts. Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals (ADP: 25.3)
Harrison is the highest drafted rookie wide receiver in ESPN fantasy leagues over the past 20 seasons. As the fourth overall draft pick, the fantasy WR1 is pro-ready and projected to lead the Cardinals in targets. Arizona’s wide receivers were 30th in the league in receptions (157) and receiving yards (1,790) last year, but Harrison is set to turn things around. He finished his Ohio State career with a school-record 15 games of 100+ receiving yards.
Malik Nabers, New York Giants (ADP: 43.0)
Nabers’ quarterback situation isn’t ideal, but he’s projected to lead the Giants in targets and is the second-highest drafted receiver in ESPN leagues during the past 20 seasons, behind only Harrison. The Giants have the fewest completions on 20+ yard passes over the past five seasons while in contrast, Nabers had 19 such receptions last season, the second most in the FBS. He also ranked 10th in the FBS in yards after the catch in 2023. Nabers should be drafted as a low-end WR2.
Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs (ADP: 98.1)
The Chiefs clearly made getting Patrick Mahomes more offensive talent an offseason priority, but with their big free agent acquisition Marquise Brown sidelined, Worthy might be worked into the offense faster than anticipated. Over the past three seasons, Worthy ranked fourth among all Power 5 players in yards after the catch, and Mahomes’ WRs have led the NFL in YAC each of the past three seasons. Worthy is a WR4 with immense upside.
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Rome Odunze, Chicago Bears (ADP: 107.3)
Odunze is flying under the radar because of Harrison Jr. and Nabers. Even though he’s competing with DJ Moore and Keenan Allen, don’t overlook him as a WR4 or WR5 in drafts. Odunze led the FBS with 1,640 receiving yards in his final season at Washington. He also topped the FBS with 21 receptions on passes thrown 20+ yards downfield and 23 catches on vertical routes. With Allen being 32 years old and given his injury history, Odunze could see more action if the veteran misses time.
Keon Coleman, Buffalo Bills (ADP: 112.2)
The Bills lost a lot of targets with the departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis this offseason. Coleman, drafted 33rd overall, is expected to help fill the void. Diggs and Davis combined for 44.8% of the Bills’ receiving yards and 51.7% of their receiving touchdowns last season. Coleman is the highest-drafted Buffalo receiver since Sammy Watkins in 2014 and the Florida State product is a WR4 with upside as he has a clear path to targets.
Ladd McConkey, Los Angeles Chargers (ADP: 115.2)
McConkey and Joshua Palmer are projected to see a similar number of targets from Justin Herbert on a Chargers team now without Allen, Mike Williams or Austin Ekeler. With a coach like Jim Harbaugh and an OC who loves the running game, it’s hard to see McConkey as more than a WR4 right now, despite the Chargers trading up to select him 34th overall.
Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars (ADP: 121.2)
Thomas is the first wide receiver the Jaguars have drafted in the first round since Justin Blackmon in 2012. Jacksonville was productive this offseason, adding vertical playmakers for Trevor Lawrence — and they succeeded with Thomas. Last season, the Jaguars’ wide receivers averaged just 2.6 yards of separation on their targets, the sixth-fewest yards of separation in the league. Thomas, however, led the FBS with 17 receiving touchdowns in 2023, with 12 of those coming on passes of 20+ yards. He’s currently being drafted outside the top 40 WRs but has the potential to exceed expectations.
Tight end
Brock Bowers is a low-end TE1 with major upside. Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders (ADP: 114.4)
Bowers can make a big impact for the Raiders in 2024. While at Georgia, Bowers was a top-three tight end in receiving yards for all three of his college seasons, two of which ended with national championships. Last season, the Raiders averaged just 32.2 receiving yards per game from tight ends, the fifth-lowest in the league. They could also use Bowers in the slot, where they had the second-fewest receiving yards last season. Even with promising second-year tight end Michael Mayer on the roster — a second-rounder in 2023 — the Raiders can find plenty of ways to get Bowers involved. The first-round pick can be viewed as a low-end TE1.
