Dec 18, 2024, 10:43 AM ET
Fantasy football is a passion for many. Sometimes that passion pushes fantasy managers to make emotional decisions even when the data suggest otherwise. Each week during the 2024 NFL season, Liz Loza will attempt to strike a balance between what the data states and what the heart wants. This is called Facts vs. Feelings.
Greetings — for the final time in 2024 — from Bristol, Connecticut! There’s a chill in the air, flurries dusting the ground, and fervent debates over Christmas music occurring at corporate lunch tables. I had no idea the jingle-jangle of holiday melodies elicited such strong opinions among casual consumers.
I discovered this axiom when a few of my favorite colleagues and I grabbed a bite in our company’s cafeteria this past Monday. As has now become routine, we gathered at the same table to post-mortem on the morning, lament our fantasy records, and spill some lukewarm tea. Standard operation. There were, however, a few differences this go-around.
The space was festively adorned with metallic tinsel and plastic holly berries. The kitchen was offering a smattering of seasonal delicacies. And there was a constant loop of carols bellowing from the speakers. It was this last detail that created quite a stir, as it inspired a passionate debate about holiday songs, moving each of us to list our top 5 most over- and underrated yuletide bangers.
What can I say? We’re fantasy analysts. We like to rank things.
Anyway, I was stunned at the zeal with which each of us argued our positions. Forget chestnuts, we were roasting each other. About a topic that, by the way, I guarantee none of us had spent a single minute thinking about until challenged by one of our peers. It was awesome. I still can’t believe the beautiful chuckleheads I work with didn’t know that Coldplay had a Christmas song, but I love them (and the spirited conversation we had) all the same (if not more).
It also reminded me of the importance of remaining ardent when setting one’s fantasy lineup during our game’s postseason. The fact is, there is no room for shoulder-shrugging in Week 16. Each of our starters must be chosen with intentionality similar to that which Wham! conveys in “Last Christmas.” It is finally time, friends, to get in our feelings. I mean, come on fill-in-the-blank player I need to go OFF! Save us from tears!
Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders: Daniels has been someone special through the bulk of 2024, ranking sixth among QBs in total fantasy points while averaging more than 20 per contest. Coming off of a 23-fantasy point finish (QB7) in Week 15, Daniels is ranked as a top 10 quarterback heading into Week 16. But the matchup versus Philadelphia could prove daunting for expectant investors.
Daniels struggled in his first outing facing the Eagles, recording his second-lowest passing total (191 yards) of 2024. He additionally recorded his third-lowest fantasy point total (13.4), which was largely salvaged by a garbage-time TD to Zach Ertz (who, coincidentally is in concussion protocol and may not suit up on Week 16), in that same Week 11 effort. Philly’s pass defense has been, unsurprisingly, stout, allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing signal callers, including Russell Wilson who managed 8.4 fantasy points (his second-lowest FPT total of the year) at Lincoln Financial Field last Sunday.
Daniels’ body of work in tandem with his clutch playing style and elite rushing ability make him hard to sit. Expectation management, however, is required. Investors are advised to flex for upside and brace for a regression in production. Thankfully, the schedule softens when the Commanders host the Falcons (19 fantasy points per game allowed to QBs) in Week 17. Advance by all means necessary.
Derrick Henry, RB, Baltimore Ravens: Forget Rudolph, let King Henry run! The 30-year-old set managers up for early success, clearing 14.7 fantasy points in Weeks 2 through 9. Henry additionally recorded touchdowns in 10 of his first 11 outings while also logging 100+ rushing yards in five of his first nine games. Since then, however, the vet’s roll has slowed, as he’s gone under his early season fantasy point total for five consecutive contests, has failed to find the end zone for three straight efforts, and has posted a single game over 100 rushing yards over his past five.
The last time Henry registered a spike was at Pittsburgh back in Week 11. That’s interesting because he’ll face the Steelers in Baltimore this weekend. It’s worth nothing, however, that while Henry scored in that game, he also registered his second-lowest rushing total of the season (65 yards). Mike Tomlin’s defense has held opposing rushers to just 4.0 YPC (fifth-fewest) and limited Saquon Barkley to just 65 yards on 19 carries in Week 15. As such, there figures to be tough sledding for Henry ahead. His talents may have helped carry managers to the playoffs, but expectations must be tempered with the stakes sky-high.
Kendre Miller, RB, New Orleans Saints: Fantasy’s current RB2 overall, Alvin Kamara has (jingle bell) rocked as a primo value selection through much of 2024. Unfortunately, the vet fell victim to a groin injury last Sunday and, as a result, may not see the field in Week 16. Miller filled in as the team’s leading rusher, managing his highest rushing total of the year in Week 15 and figures to assume RB1 duties this weekend if Kamara can’t go.
While it may feel difficult to trust such an injury-prone player (Miller has missed 19 games since entering the league in 2023) the fact is, the Saints are out of options at nearly every offensive position. Led by an interim head coach and without Derek Carr (hand), Chris Olave (concussion), Rashid Shaheed (knee), Taysom Hill (knee), and virtually zero playoff chances, New Orleans is best to feature the second-year back.
Apart from durability concerns, the 22-year-old’s only downside is a lack of work in the passing game; Miller has yet to collect a single reception over his last three games. Though, again, given the holes in the roster that could change. It’s additionally worth noting that Miller logged 4.6 yards per game over four contests this season (Kamara registered a YPC of 3.5 during those four outings), demonstrating impressive efficiency particularly given the Saints’ quality of talent under center. Ultimately, Miller doesn’t offer much upside at Green Bay this week, but he could find utility as an emergency flex and should certainly remain on dynasty radars.
Malik Nabers, WR, New York Giants: I’m sure all Nabers wants for Christmas is a capable QB. Yet, the rookie appears to be passer-proof, averaging 17.2 fantasy points per contest (QB7) despite drawing looks from Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, Tommy DeVito, and Tim Boyle. Nabers proved the point in dramatic fashion, compiling his most robust stat line since Week 4 (10-82-1 on 14 targets) with the one-two-punch of DeVito and Boyle under center last Sunday.
Efficiency issues figure to remain, but Nabers’ volume is likely to, once again, buoy his stock as the Giants are 8-point underdogs at Atlanta in Week 16. Noting Nabers’ elevated floor (he’s recorded a single outing of fewer than 10 fantasy points in 2024), the LSU standout remains worthy of top 7 positional consideration in a plus matchup facing the Falcons. Atlanta’s defense has allowed the fourth-most points per game to opposing wide receivers and, per Mike Clay’s Shadow Report, the third-most to the perimeter. Nabers may not always skim his ceiling, but the odds of staying above the rooftops is high this weekend.
Adam Thielen, WR, Carolina Panthers: Thielen has strung together a holly jolly resurgence since Week 13, posting double-digit fantasy points in each of his past three efforts. Volume has been key for the vet, as he’s averaged 9.3 looks per game during that span. Jalen Coker‘s return (quadriceps) presumed to threaten Thielen’s target share, and while the rookie flashed with an 83-yard TD grab, the vet continued to lead the corps in looks this past Sunday. Additionally, Thielen topped the team in slot snaps, recording 28 in Week 15.
That sets up nicely for Thielen’s investors versus Arizona in Week 16. The Cardinals’ secondary has been notably more generous to the slot than the perimeter, allowing the 14th-most fantasy points to Y-receivers over the last four weeks. For better context, Jaxon Smith-Ngiba logged stats lines of 5-82-1 and 6-77-1 on 12 targets in his two games versus Arizona (Weeks 12 and 14). In addition, DeMario Douglas may not have been prolific, but was efficient converting each of his three targets while also finding the end zone this past Sunday.
With Carolina once again expected to chase points (+4.5) and Bryce Young still in need of a capable safety valve, Thielen offers managers high-floor flex-appeal this weekend.
Jalen McMillan, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Oh come all ye faithful McMillan stans, the Washington product appears to have finally materialized into a legitimate fantasy asset. The road was seemingly littered with more stops than Santa’s flight path, but the voyage tells the story.
Weeks 1-3: Rookie playing behind Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Cade Otton.
Week 4-5: Injures his hamstring in practice, sidelined for two games.
Week 6: Practiced on a limited basis heading into the weekend, not part of the game plan.
Week 7-8: Mike Evans and Chris Godwin both exit with injuries, McMillan draws 15 look over two games.
Week 9-11: Re-injures hamstring, out for another two games
Week 12-13: Slow-played in his return from injury.
Week 14-15: Combined 9-134-3 on 13 total targets
A smooth route-runner with inside and outside ability, McMillan offers the Bucs much needed versatility. The 23-year-old has averaged 13.8 fantasy points per game when featured as a top-2 or -3 option in the team’s aerial attack. With Sterling Shepard hampered by a foot issue, the 23-year-old should continue to draw meaningful looks. And he figures to make good on his opportunities at Dallas on Sunday night. The Cowboys have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points over the defense’s last four outings. Consider McMillan a flex option in the top-40 WR range.
Brenton Strange,TE, Jacksonville Jaguars: Jacksonville doesn’t need Evan Engram to come home for Christmas with Brenton Strange proving himself to be a nifty safety valve. The Penn State product averaged six looks per contest and 10.9 fantasy points per game when Engram was sidelined from Weeks 2 through 5. Had that run continued, Strange would rank seventh at the position in fantasy points per game, behind George Kittle (16.2), Brock Bowers (15.2), Trey McBride (15.0), David Njoku (13.4), Jonnu Smith (12.9), and Travis Kelce (11.9).
In the first game since Engram (shoulder) was officially placed on IR, Strange again proved his mettle, converting 11 of 12 looks for 73 receiving yards. The effort delivered fantasy managers 18 points, making Strange the virtual game’s
