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Rachel Doerrie, ESPNDec 13, 2024, 07:00 AM ET
- Rachel Doerrie is a professional data consultant specializing in data communication and modelling. She’s worked in the NHL and consulted for professional teams across North American and Europe. She hosts the Staff & Graph Podcast and discusses sports from a data-driven perspective.
The IIHF World Junior Championships are just around the corner, and lots of eyes will be on the top prospects outside of the NHL this winter.
As is the case each year, not all the best under-20 players will be available; notably, Connor Bedard and Macklin Celebrini for Canada, who would undoubtedly dominate the proceedings. Both Canada and United States will bring some significant talent to the tournament, with the expectation of bringing home the golden hardware.
Projecting the rosters for these two teams is a harder task than it should be. Both teams are consistently guilty of leaving talent off the roster for players who can “play a role.” Instead of trying to run their opponents out of the rink and force other teams to match their depth of skill, both teams overthink it, and, in some cases, play politics.
In projecting both rosters, we’ll look at who is likely to make the team, contrasted to who would make the team if it were a straight “take the best players” situation. For example, if you’re taking the best players, neither of Beckett Sennecke or Zayne Parekh would have been left off the invite list (only to be added for injury reasons later on). On the U.S. side, Joey Willis would likely be a shoo-n over some of the USA Hockey “favorites” as a few scouts termed them.
United States
United States
LEFT WING | CENTER | RIGHT WING | |||
Gabe Perreault | James Hagens | Ryan Leonard | |||
Cole Eiserman | Oliver Moore | Trevor Connelly | |||
Austin Burnevik | Carey Terrance | Brody Ziemer | |||
AJ Spellacy | Danny Nelson | Teddy Stiga | |||
LEFT DEFENSE | RIGHT DEFENSE | ||||
Zeev Buium | Drew Fortescue | ||||
Cole Hutson | EJ Emery | ||||
Aram Minnetian | Adam Kleber | ||||
GOALTENDERS | |||||
Trey Augustine | |||||
Sam Hillebrandt | |||||
Extras: Joey Willis, Logan Hensler |
There are few absolute shoo-ins. Both goaltenders are returning, and Trey Augustine is a candidate to be the best netminder in the tournament. He could be a real difference-maker for the Americans. Sam Hillebrandt should start as the backup, but is more than capable of leading the charge if Augustine falters. There is real strength in goal for the Americans, which they may need given an overall lack of skill depth on the roster compared to other teams.
The trio of Gabe Perreault, Ryan Leonard and 2025 draft prospect James Hagens were excellent at the Summer Showcase, and USA Hockey would be wise to keep the trio together in the tournament. Don’t be surprised if Leonard captains the Americans here.
play
0:46
Gabe Perreault scores in the first minute for BC
Gabe Perreault scores a goal less than a minute into the game to give Boston College an early lead vs. Providence.
Oliver Moore and Cole Eiserman are other locks to make the team up front, with significant scoring prowess and game-breaking skill. Trevor Connelly is likely to make the team, a player with immense skill and ability to change momentum at any given moment. He was undisciplined at the under-18 tournament earlier this year, and will need to keep himself in check to effectively contribute for the U.S. Danny Nelson and Carey Terrance are returnees expected to play key roles in the bottom six, and could prove to be key matchup options in tight games.
Three guys who are USA Hockey favorites because of their energy, versatility and competitiveness are AJ Spellacy, Teddy Stiga and Brodie Ziemer. Spellacy was one of the best players at the Summer Showcase and is a perfect fit for a bottom six role on this team. All three can turn momentum with the forechecking and doggedness on the puck. In tight games, expect those three to be relied upon.
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On the bubble are Austin Burnevik, Joey Willis, Chris Pelosi and Brandon Svoboda. Two of the four will likely make the team. Svoboda performed well in the summer, and USA Hockey is high on Burnevik’s physical package. Pelosi is a solid, two-way center who the Americans may opt for given his reliability. Willis packs offensive punch and would be the perfect spare forward to sub in in case of injury. The U.S. is already without Quentin Musty, and lacks offensive firepower in the bottom-six group. They are well balanced, and Willis could be the spark plug that his inserted to create offense.
Max Plante is another candidate for the 13th forward spot and got a late invite to camp after missing much of the season with injury. If the Americans want a player who can provide a game-breaking play, they take Willis.
On defense, the Americans are loaded with options. Zeev Buium will lead the charge, and is a candidate to be the tournament’s best defenseman. He forced the coaching staff to play him more in last year’s tournament because of his play-driving ability. Also returning will be Drew Fortescue and Aram Minnetian. Buium and Fortescue will log big minutes, and don’t be surprised if Cole Hutson and EJ Emery round out the top four, given how well they complement each other.
Given that Minnetian is right-handed, Colin Ralph would make sense on the left side. However, Adam Kleber is someone the coaching staff likes, and could be a steady bottom-pair presence. Logan Hensler would be my pick as the seventh defenceman, but I could see the Americans opting for the combination of Ralph and Kleber as the sixth and seventh guys.
Canada
Canada
LEFT WING | CENTER | RIGHT WING | |||
Easton Cowan | Cal Ritchie | Bradly Nadeau | |||
Gavin McKenna | Jett Luchanko | Brayden Yager | |||
Tanner Howe | Berkly Catton | Beckett Sennecke | |||
Denver Barkey | Carson Rehkopf | Porter Martone | |||
LEFT DEFENSE | RIGHT DEFENSE | ||||
Sam Dickinson | Oliver Bonk | ||||
Tanner Molendyk | Zayne Parekh | ||||
Matthew Schaefer | Beau Akey | ||||
GOALTENDERS | |||||
Carson Bjarnason | |||||
Carter George | |||||
Extras: Cole Beaudoin, Andrew Gibson |
Every year, there are at least two or three players that do not get invited to World Juniors camp for Canada that leave everyone scratching their heads. This year, those players were Beckett Sennecke and Zayne Parekh, both of whom went in the top 10 in the 2024 draft. Both managed to get late calls to camp because of injuries, and given how well they have performed, should make the team (if Canada is selecting on merit, not on filling roles).
There are a quite a few locks to make Canada’s squad up front. Easton Cowan, Cal Ritchie, Bradly Nadeau, Jett Luchanko and Gavin McKenna will all play enormous roles on this team. Brayden Yager and Carson Rehkopf are returnees who should also make the team. Yager’s been great in the WHL this season, and performed well at last year’s tournament. Rehkopf is versatile, scored a hat trick in the first game against USports, and should play a key bottom-six role for Canada. The other returnee up front is Matthew Wood, who many believed would have a tougher time making the team, and took a hard hit in the first USports game.
Things get very interesting outside of those players.
If Canada were to take its best pure players, then Berkly Catton, Riley Heidt and Beckett Sennecke would be slam dunks. Canada likes their bottom-six players to fill roles and regardless of whether they have issues producing offense in the tournament, lessons have not been learned. Catton and Tanner Howe are believed to have the inside track for middle-six roles. Sennecke stood out for Canada in the first USports game, and cutting him would fall into the category of leaving a better player at home in favor of a guy who fills a role. Heidt has consistently produced in the WHL this season, but struggled in the USports game, which will likely hurt his case.
Porter Martone has incredible chemistry with Carson Rehkopf in Brampton, and playing those two together makes a ton of sense. Adding Denver Barkey, who perfectly fits the energy, forechecking, penalty-killing role seems to be what many believe will occur. That line not only poses matchup nightmares for opponents, but they can also score. Martone is a wild card for me, as he’s prone to ill-advised penalties and the worst times — something that has been very costly for Canada in past tournaments.
Cole Beaudoin is a coach’s dream. He’s big, wins battles, skates well and can impact the game in all areas. Other candidates on the bubble include Andrew Cristall and Mathieu Cataford. Cristall has game-breaking talent and is easily a top-13 forward, but doesn’t fit a bottom-six role if he can’t find his way into the top six. Cataford is a Hockey Canada favorite, but an injury concern has hampered his ability to showcase his talents for a bottom-six role, like Barkey.
Porter Martone has been a scoring wiz in the OHL this season. Michael Miller/ISI Photos/Getty Images
On defense, there is a lot to unpack. Oliver Bonk and Tanner Molendyk are locks, and will play big roles on the back end. Sam Dickinson has been fantastic in London, and the familiarity with Bonk is something Canada will likely lean on throughout the tournament. Those three players should all be on the team.
So should Zayne Parekh. Canada lacks depth on the right side, so having a player who won the Memorial Cup last year, was the best offensive defenseman in the draft class, and is a difference-maker on the blue line should be a no-brainer. He should be running the top power-play unit if Canada wants to give themselves the best shot at winning the tournament. Beau Akey has a ton of skill, but has played in only 39 games over the last two seasons. Being right-handed helps his case, bit his body of work should not see him make this team over Parekh. While Canada’s shine to Akey makes sense, leaving Parekh off the roster — a distinct possibility — would be unwise.
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Matthew Schaefer was scratched for the first USports game, indicating he has an inside track to the team. Schaefer has been nothing short of incredible in his draft year, and while it raised some eyebrows, it is easy to see why Canada’s coaching staff likes him. Andrew Gibson and Caden Price have performed well this season, and fit the bill for Canada in a more defensive role. That leaves Sawyer Mynio and Harrison Brunicke, who have performed well but battled injuries this season. Both should get a long look for Canada and could play themselves into a bigger role if they make the team.
The goaltending for Canada is interesting. It is very rare a draft-eligible goaltender gets an invite to camp, let alone makes the team. Jack Ivankovic has played well in Brampton this season, and could be a first-round draft pick next summer. He will be hard-pressed to make the squad as a 17-year-old, but should be a big piece of Canada’s team in 2026 and 2027.
Carson Bjarnason and Carter George are the likely goaltenders when all is said and done. Scott Ratzlaff had a tough outing in the first USports game, and that never bodes well for a goaltender. Canada prefers 19-year-old goaltenders, meaning Bjarnason is the likely starter. George is an older 18-year-old, and gives Canada some insurance next year as a returnee.
There are bound to be head-scratching decisions by both nations, as is the case every year. Regardless, they are kids whose hockey careers will not be made or broken by whether they make their respective teams or not. More than anything, it is a point of discussion on how to approach selecting players for a tournament versus a team that plays an entire season.