Ranking NHL players who are doing better

Neil PaineDec 5, 2024, 07:40 AM ET

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Hockey, perhaps more so than any other sport, thrives on the unexpected. Whether it’s a journeyman suddenly breaking out for a career season, an established star mysteriously going cold in the middle of his prime, or a goalie playing out of character (in any direction), the NHL is rarely short on surprises. And through the first few months of the 2024-25 season, we’ve already seen plenty of examples for each type of performance.

We can measure which players have defied expectations — for better or worse — relative to their previous careers using my adjusted Goals Above Replacement (GAR) metric. Specifically, we’ll be comparing players to their established level of production, which is an average of their previous three seasons of adjusted GAR, with more recent seasons receiving increased weight.

Some players have blown past their earlier track records and become unexpected stars of the season — they have the largest positive differentials between actual and established GAR — while others have seen their once-reliable production plummet — causing them to fall far short of their established GAR.

Let’s dive into a starting lineup (three forwards, two defensemen and a goalie) of biggest overachievers and underperformers of the season so far and explore what might be driving these surprising trends.

Note: All stats are as of Tuesday afternoon, Dec. 3.

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All-Underachiever Team

All-Overachiever Team

Forwards

2024-25 age: 24
Basic stats: 24 GP, 14 G, 10 A, 24 Pts, +10, 17.6 TOI/G
3-year established GAR: 1.1 Offense | 1.1 Defense | 2.1 Total
Actual GAR pace: 18.5 Offense | 3.8 Defense | 22.3 Total (+20.2)

Editor’s Picks

2 Related

Who had Connor McMichael down for more goals (14) than Connor McDavid (12) through the first two months of the 2024-25 season? Certainly nobody who thought the Caps would struggle this year — which was pretty much everyone, as Washington opened the season tied for the seventh longest Stanley Cup odds of any team.

Fast forward to today, however, and no team has gained more playoff probability (+60%) than Washington, thanks in no small part to the scoring touch of the No. 25 pick from 2019.

Though it’s fair to question whether McMichael can continue scoring on nearly 20% of his shots — his previous career mark was 11% — and he’s not adding very much playmaking to go with his goals, he has massively improved his two-way indicators from a year ago, a sign of growth for a player who might lead the Caps’ next generation into its post-Alex Ovechkin era.

2024-25 age: 26
Basic stats: 24 GP, 12 G, 25 A, 37 Pts, +6, 18.2 TOI/G
3-year established GAR: 7.1 Offense | 3.8 Defense | 10.9 Total
Actual GAR pace: 24.5 Offense | 4.8 Defense | 29.4 Total (+18.5)

Nečas has long carved out his reputation as a reliably decent offensive producer, with 20 or more adjusted goals in three of the previous four seasons. But after a very good campaign (27 adjusted goals, 68 adjusted points, 14.7 GAR) at age 24 in 2022-23, he failed to keep ascending — dipping to just 23 adjusted goals, 51 adjusted points and 9.9 GAR. A minus-9 rating and reduced ice time on the penalty kill also spoke to Nečas’ seemingly diminished 200-foot game.

This season, though, Nečas has snapped back to the level of play many were expecting last season, and then some. He’s on pace for career highs across the board, including 41 adjusted goals, 84 adjusted assists, 125 adjusted points and an MVP-like 29.4 adjusted GAR. It’s no surprise to see Carolina currently rate as a top contender; they’ve been teasing this for years. But with Nečas achieving his full potential, the Canes are looking as scary as ever.

2024-25 age: 24
Basic stats: 23 GP, 10 G, 14 A, 24 Pts, +16, 18.2 TOI/G
3-year established GAR: 3.2 Offense | 0.6 Defense | 3.8 Total
Actual GAR pace: 15.6 Offense | 5.1 Defense | 20.6 Total (+16.8)

The Blue Jackets’ inspirational start to the season — rallying to an 11-9-3 record after the deaths of team star Johnny Gaudreau and his brother Matthew in an August traffic accident — has many heroes, from coach Dean Evason to a surprisingly deep roster of contributors that ranks as sixth youngest in the NHL. But in the absence of Gaudreau, few would have expected that Columbus would rank sixth in the league in goals per game, up from 24th a year ago. And the main credit for that might just belong to Marchenko, the Russian forward now in his third NHL season.

Marchenko made some progress at both ends last season, scoring 22 adjusted goals with 40 adjusted points and an improved on-ice goal differential, but he has taken a massive leap this year. He is currently tracking for 35 adjusted goals (all at even strength), 84 adjusted points and 20.6 GAR, finding his form playing off the right wing of veteran center Sean Monahan on the Jackets’ top line. Columbus needed a breakout from Marchenko this season, and that’s exactly what it appears to have gotten.

Honorable mention

Dylan Strome, C, Washington Capitals
Alex Laferriere, RW, Los Angeles Kings
Aliaksei Protas, C, Washington Capitals

Defensemen

2024-25 age: 27
Basic stats: 23 GP, 8 G, 18 A, 26 Pts, +12, 26.0 TOI/G
3-year established GAR: 6.6 Offense | 1.2 Defense | 7.8 Total
Actual GAR pace: 20.1 Offense | 7.2 Defense | 27.4 Total (+19.5)

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Speaking of the Blue Jackets, the other player most responsible for Columbus exceeding expectations resides on the blue line, where Werenski has put up remarkable numbers so far this season. The homegrown defenseman had shown signs of elite all-around potential before, amassing 24 adjusted goals and 18.2 adjusted GAR at age 22 in the 2019-20 season. Through that year, Werenski’s most similar career players by GAR were Larry Murphy, Glen Wesley, Drew Doughty, Scott Niedermayer and Brian Leetch — three Hall of Famers, a likely future HOF member and a highly respected 20-year vet.

But injuries had limited Werenski ever since, calling into question whether he would develop into that caliber of superstar. So far this season, though, he has reclaimed his potential with 28 adjusted goals, 91 adjusted points and 27.4 adjusted GAR. The latter of those figures has Werenski vying with Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes to be the top defenseman in the league, heady company indeed.

2024-25 age: 21
Basic stats: 25 GP, 3 G, 13 A, 16 Pts, +6, 18.7 TOI/G
3-year established GAR: 0.7 Offense | 0.2 Defense | 0.9 Total
Actual GAR pace: 7.8 Offense | 7.8 Defense | 15.7 Total (+14.8)

Draftniks and prospect mavens were already familiar with Clarke, the No. 8 pick in the 2021 draft, but he had only played 25 games (with 8 points and 1.4 GAR) across parts of two NHL seasons before this season. Clarke was, however, set for an expanded role on L.A.’s second D-pairing and power play unit in 2024-25, and he has taken that opportunity and skated away with it.

Clarke currently ranks among the league’s top 20 defensemen in adjusted points (52) and adjusted GAR (15.7), and in his age-21 season he is the youngest member of either list. It’s an impressive initial breakout for a big talent that is widely viewed as Doughty’s successor on the Kings’ blue line.

Honorable mention

Jakob Chychrun, Washington Capitals
Neal Pionk, Winnipeg Jets
Ryker Evans, Seattle Kraken

Goalie

2024-25 age: 26
Basic stats: 18 starts, .929 SV%
3-year established GAR: 9.8 Total
Actual GAR pace: 42.6 Total (+32.8)

Goalies are a funny bunch, always and forever. For the latest proof, look no further than Gustavsson, who was drafted by the Penguins, broke into the NHL with the Senators, was traded twice by the time he was barely 24 years old, had an excellent debut for the Wild in 2022-23 — ranking third in the league in Goals Saved Above Average — and was decidedly mediocre the following season.

Against that backdrop, it was unclear what Minnesota could expect from Gustavsson in 2024-25, especially since he was seemingly caught in the middle between veteran future Hall of Famer Marc-Andre Fleury and prospect Jesper Wallstedt. So what has Gustavsson done so far? He only ranks first among regular goalies in save percentage, second in GSAA and (relatedly) he leads all players in adjusted GAR this season.

While Minnesota’s defense does a good job of making Gustavsson’s life easier — he faces the league’s fifth-lowest rate of expected goals against per 60 minutes — Gustavsson has done an excellent job of stopping the shots the Wild do allow, exceeding expectations in the early going.

Honorable mention

Lukas Dostal, Anaheim Ducks
Dustin Wolf, Calgary Flames
Anthony Stolarz, Toronto Maple Leafs

All-Underachiever Team

Forwards

2024-25 age: 32
Basic stats: 20 GP, 3 G, 5 A, 8 Pts, 0, 19.2 TOI/G
3-year established GAR: 14.0 Offense | 4.1 Defense | 18.1 Total
Actual GAR pace: -0.9 Offense | 3.1 Defense | 2.1 Total (-16.0)

Alongside the stellar play of McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard, Hyman’s career-high 54 adjusted goals, 76 adjusted points and 21.5 adjusted GAR was a major reason why Edmonton weathered a shaky early start last season and eventually made it to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final. That’s what makes it so shocking to see his production fall off this much in 2024-25, down to just 10 adjusted goals, 27 adjusted points and 2.1 adjusted GAR (including -0.9 on offense).

Hyman has been battling an undisclosed ailment since the last week of November, costing him a handful of games, but he was doing surprisingly little even before his absence. The saving grace is that Hyman’s underlying metrics for possession quality suggest he is still capable of creating a high volume of offensive chances — but he must begin to finish those opportunities at a far higher clip.

2024-25 age: 27
Basic stats: 15 GP, 6 G, 8 A, 14 Pts, +6, 20.7 TOI/G
3-year established GAR: 21.4 Offense | 4.6 Defense | 26.0 Total
Actual GAR pace: 6.7 Offense | 3.4 Defense | 10.1 Total (-15.9)

In maybe the most startling decline of all, Matthews — one of the most prolific goal scorers in NHL history, the man who flirted with 70 goals a year ago — has dipped from 68 adjusted goals to 20, from 105 adjusted points to 47, and from 29.4 adjusted GAR to just 10.1 this season. Yes, that’s partly because Matthews missed nearly a month with an upper-body injury, returning to the lineup last Saturday for the first time since Nov. 3.

He has a goal and 2 assists in two games since coming back, so there are signs of Matthews regaining last season’s scoring momentum. But he wouldn’t reach 45 goals this year even if he plays every remaining game for the Leafs and scores at his previous career rate of 0.65 goals per game, and he would land at 55 goals on the number — a 14-goal decline — if he scored at last year’s career-high pace from here on.

In other words, Matthews is pretty much destined for one of the league’s biggest year-over-year dips in offensive production no matter what he does next.

Toronto Maple Leafs captain Auston Matthews returned to the lineup Nov. 30 after missing nine games due to an upper-body injury. Photo by Mike Carlson/Getty Images

2024-25 age: 28
Basic stats: 26 GP, 9 G, 14 A, 23 Pts, -4, 19.6 TOI/G
3-year established GAR: 20.5 Offense | 4.7 Defense | 25.2 Total
Actual GAR pace: 8.4 Offense | 2.6 Defense | 11.0 Total (-14.2)

If a surprise season takes players like McMichael and Marchenko drastically outplaying their previous track records, a disappointing year like the one Boston is mired in — which recently got coach Jim Montgomery fired, just 513 days after accepting NHL Coach of the Year honors — requires stars such as Pastrňák undershooting their established levels by substantial amounts.

For most other players, a season like Pastrňák’s 2024-25 wouldn’t be all that bad; he is still on pace for 28 adjusted goals, 71 adjusted points and 11.0 adjusted GAR. But those would represent Pastrňák’s worst outputs in a season since he was a 19-year-old in 2015-16, before he grew into one of the NHL’s most lethal wingers.

While it’s hard to imagine Pastrňák will keep shooting 8.6% the rest of the season — his previous career rate was 13.9% — he also hasn’t been driving positive play anywhere near as much as in the past. It’s almost unthinkable that Boston would rank 30th in scoring with Pastrňák logging 20 minutes every night.

(Dis)honorable mention

Steven Stamkos, C, Nashville Predators
Jason Robertson, LW, Dallas Stars
Mika Zibanejad, C, New York Rangers

Defensemen

2024-25 age: 25
Basic stats: 24 GP, 1 G, 3 A, 4 Pts, -8, 21.5 TOI/G
3-year established GAR: 3.0 Offense | 6.5 Defense | 9.5 Total
Actual GAR pace: -2.7 Offense | -1.3 Defense | -4.0 Total (-13.5)

Just a few years ago, Miller was looking like one of the NHL’s best up-and-coming defensemen on both ends. He was one of just 19 D-men in the league to be worth at least 5.0 adjusted GAR on both offense and defense — and along with Dallas’ Miro Heiskanen and Vancouver’s Quinn Hughes, the youngest of the bunch at age 23. But Miller regressed last season, finishing with fewer adjusted GAR than either of the two previous years, and his offensive output was next to nonexistent in the playoffs (4 points in 16 games).

That unfortunate trend has carried over to the 2024-25 regular season as well, with Miller checking in at 4 points (1 goal, 3 assists) in his first 24 games while also carrying a minus-8 rating on a team with a plus-6 goal differential overall. Miller has too much talent to keep posting numbers so poor, but it remains shocking to see him mired in such a deep and extended slump.

2024-25 age: 25
Basic stats: 25 GP, 1 G, 9 A, 10 Pts, -9, 24.4 TOI/G
3-year established GAR: 9.4 Offense | 4.4 Defense | 13.8 Total
Actual GAR pace: 0.5 Offense | 1.3 Defense | 1.8 Total (-12.0)

Goalie

2024-25 age: 25
Basic stats: 7 starts, .844 SV%
3-year established GAR: 5.5 Total
Actual GAR pace: -26.0 Total (-31.5)

Because they have such an outsized effect on a team’s chances of winning or losing, goalies are often on the extreme ends of the GAR leaderboard in any given season — for good or bad. And the latter end of the spectrum belongs to Primeau for his league-low (among regulars) .844 SV% early this season.

Primeau has been all over the place in his six-year NHL career: Once he was considered the heir apparent to Carey Price in Montreal’s net, then played at a sub-replacement level for three straight seasons (2020-21 to 2022-23), then rebounded to be above-average last season. The young and still-rebuilding Habs felt comfortable with Primeau and Sam Montembeault sharing starts this season, but a performance by Primeau already worth nearly 14 goals below average in just seven starts has helped Montreal rank dead last in goals allowed per game.

The team’s defense is doing him zero favors; they’ve saddled him with the fifth-highest rate of high-danger chances seen per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, as well as the seventh-highest rate of shots off the rush per 60. But even after adjusting for the quality of his shots faced, Primeau is an order of magnitude worse than any other netminder in the league this season.

(Dis)honorable mention

Alexandar Georgiev, Colorado Avalanche
Linus Ullmark, Ottawa Senators
Daniil Tarasov, Columbus Blue Jackets

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