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Rachel Doerrie, ESPNNov 20, 2024, 07:05 AM ET
- Rachel Doerrie is a professional data consultant specializing in data communication and modelling. She’s worked in the NHL and consulted for professional teams across North American and Europe. She hosts the Staff & Graph Podcast and discusses sports from a data-driven perspective.
The 4 Nations Face-Off will take place from Feb. 12-20, and the rosters will be announced in full on Dec. 4. Each of the United States, Canada, Sweden and Finland will be rosters full of NHL stars.
But arguably the best story out of the previous best-on-best tourney with NHL players — the 2016 World Cup of Hockey — was Team North America, a collection of the best players under the age of 24 from the U.S. and Canada. The team featured a who’s who of future NHL superstars, such as Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, Auston Matthews and Connor Hellebuyck.
Unfortunately, there will be no similar team of young stars at the 4 Nations Face-Off, but that does not prevent us from projecting what the team might have looked like using my model.
As a reminder: To be eligible for Team North America, the player must be under the age of 24 on the first day of the tournament. Cole Caufield and Connor McMichael, for example, are ineligible because they turn 24 in January 2025.
Team North America roster for 2024-25
Team North America
Forwards
There is no shortage of options for Team North America, who will once again be led by a generational talent. This time, it is a different Connor … Connor Bedard. Much like McDavid, this occurs the year after his rookie campaign. Jack Hughes and Alexis Lafreniere complete the trio of No. 1 picks up front.
The North Americans have a good mix of skill, speed, size and two-way ability, potentially more than their previous iteration in 2016. Quinton Byfield, Matt Boldy, Wyatt Johnston and Matthew Knies bring a physical element that matches up against the more physically mature players in competition. Skill-wise, Team North America oozes highlight-reel talent with Hughes, Lafreniere, Logan Cooley and Dylan Guenther.
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Then there is Bedard. He requires no introduction or explanation. From a lacrosse goal to his end-to-end rushes and lethal release, Bedard puts fans in seats and is appointment television. His slow start to this season isn’t unexpected, as he lacks the support that many other players have on their respective teams. However, when he’s with the skilled players on Team North America, he’ll be right back to his highlight-reel capabilities. There are plenty of exciting young stars on this roster and the young Canadian has had the attention of the hockey world for more than three years.
Matt Beniers, Seth Jarvis, Byfield, Johnston, Knies and Dylan Cozens are six penalty-killing options that play a reliable two-way game and can be depended upon in shorthanded situations. Each of them, except for Beniers, play a regular penalty-killing role on their current NHL teams, and Beniers has shown he is capable, as arguably the best two-way player on this team.
Offensively, the power-play options are overwhelming. Hughes, Bedard, Boldy and Guenther are all excellent flank options, while Lafreniere, Jarvis and Cooley are quality bumper and goal line options. North America could run two units of players who regularly feature on their NHL team’s top power-play units. There is a good balance of finishers and playmakers from which to choose, giving the coach a plethora of options in terms of structure and unit balance.
So who was on the bubble? Trevor Zegras and Adam Fantilli are the most notable omissions on the roster. Both are immensely talented, but slow starts combined with elevated play from other players have them on the outside looking in. Logan Stankoven‘s play has him up for serious consideration as the extra forward, and would likely be my current selection over Mason McTavish. However, the versatility and physical package of McTavish likely makes him more attractive to coaches and management.
Defensemen
There are quite a few options here too, and the staff could select other players depending on the style they want to play. Brock Faber and Jake Sanderson play major minutes for their NHL teams, and are highly effective. They will be the pillars of the defensive core. Owen Power, Bowen Byram, Thomas Harley and Alex Vlasic all play top-four roles for their respective NHL teams.
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All six defensemen play a regular penalty-killing role in the NHL. Sanderson, Vlasic and Faber average more than 2:00 of shorthanded time on ice per game. Harley, Power and Byram average 90 seconds. Sanderson, Vlasic, Harley and Faber bring positive value while shorthanded, and can be relied upon in those situations. Power and Byram are more than capable of stepping in should any of those four take a penalty or need their minutes tapered.
Faber is the top option on the power play, quarterbacking the Minnesota extra-man unit, and his familiarity with Boldy could be the determining factor. Sanderson has taken over top PP in Ottawa, and for good reason. Both guys are top candidates to run effective power-play units and if necessary, could be followed with the pair of Power and Byram at the end of the extra-man situation, given their familiarity with one another in Buffalo. It is quite rare for young defensemen to be quarterbacking top power-play units in the NHL, and this team is lucky to have two of them.
The omissions here were not as difficult as the forwards, because there were a clear top-six defensemen in terms of value added in my model.
Braden Schneider was relatively close to that group, and given his physical nature, would likely be an attractive inclusion as a bottom-pairing defenseman. Olen Zellwegger and Brandt Clarke are not getting nearly enough attention for the positive impact they are having in Anaheim and Los Angeles, respectively, this season. Clarke leads all under-24 defenseman in points, shots and individual expected goals this season. There is a case to be made for him as the seventh defensemen on this team given his right-handedness and overall capabilities.
It would come down to those two given North America’s lack of right-shot defensemen, and the hesitancy to play young defensemen on their off side.
Goaltenders
The goaltending is where things get dicey. Goalies take longer to develop, and many of the best young ones are European (Jesper Wallstedt, Yaroslav Askarov).
However, there are a few options for the North Americans. Devon Levi and Dustin Wolf have seen NHL action this season, while Sebastian Cossa has a .937 with Grand Rapids (AHL). Dylan Garand has played well in AHL Hartford as well. Those four would be the main contenders for the three spots on Team North America, with Wolf and Levi having the inside track given their NHL experience.
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The goaltending would not be anywhere near as strong as the 2016 team who rolled out future Vezina Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck, Stanley Cup champion Matt Murray and World Juniors champ John Gibson. Wolf has shown immense promise for Calgary, and would likely be the starter.
It is a shame that Team North America was just a one-off, because many of the players on this projected roster will not play in the 4 Nations Face-off. Perhaps next time around, the NHL/NHLPA will include more countries like Germany (giving us Leon Draisaitl and Tim Stutzle), Switzerland (Roman Josi, Nico Hischier) … and a North American team. The only change I would make is that if Canada or USA want to take a under-24 player on their team, they have first right of refusal. That would avoid the “well if this player played for country instead of North America, maybe the result would be different” discourse.
Team North America was tremendous fun in 2016 and would undoubtedly be the same in 2025. Here’s hoping we get another edition in a future best-on-best tourney.