Fantasy hockey guide: These are the goalie matchups to exploit

Sean Allen, Special to ESPN.comNov 19, 2024, 01:00 PM ET

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As most teams crack the 20-game threshold this week, we are getting to a place where in-season team statistics have a large enough sample to have some meaning. That means we can start to give some real consideration to the fantasy points against per game (FPAPG) record, especially when looking at matchups.

For example, a team’s goals-for-per-game or win-loss record doesn’t paint quite the same picture as FPAPG, which offers a more direct measure of how a team impacts opposing goaltender performance for our fantasy leagues.

The Nashville Predators are 31st in the overall standings and also happen to be the No. 1 team giving out fantasy points to opposing goaltenders. But the New York Islanders are 19th overall and rank second; the Edmonton Oilers are 15th and rank third; and the Boston Bruins rank in playoff position and rank seventh in allowing the most points to opposing goaltenders.

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These discrepancies arise from various factors.

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If a team has a tendency to get themselves shut out, it can inflate the team’s FPAPG for opposing goalies. That’s the case with the New York Islanders, who tie for the NHL lead by allowing four shutouts this season. Or the opposite can be true. The St. Louis Blues haven’t allowed a shutout against them this season and, while they have scored the eighth-fewest goals against opposing goaltenders, they rank only 12th for FPAPG.

Or a team can be good at winning close, low-scoring games. The Bruins have scored the second-fewest goals against opposing goalies, but rank only seventh for FPAPG for goalies. Why? They’ve managed to stay middle of the pack for giving out wins (they rank 13th for opposing goalie wins).

Teams goaltenders should avoid :

Washington Capitals: -1.68 opposing goalie FPAPG
Winnipeg Jets: -1.06 opposing goalie FPAPG
Vegas Golden Knights: -0.52 opposing goalie FPAPG
Florida Panthers: -0.27 opposing goalie FPAPG
Carolina Hurricanes: -0.08 opposing goalie FPAPG

Teams goaltenders should thrive against

Nashville Predators: 4.45 opposing goalie FPAPG
New York Islanders: 3.94 opposing goalie FPAPG
Edmonton Oilers: 3.66 opposing goalie FPAPG
Pittsburgh Penguins: 3.35 opposing goalie FPAPG
San Jose Sharks: 3.25 opposing goalie FPAPG

Goalie notes

Calgary Flames in 18 games (three last week):

Dustin Wolf (crease share season/week: 50.1%/67.6%, fantasy points season/week: 35.8/20.4, 68.1% available)
Dan Vladar (crease share season/week: 49.9%/32.4%, fantasy points season/week: 15.4/-0.2, 96.1% available)

Wolf got his obligatory shutout against the Predators to boost his stats this week, and he is in line to face the Islanders on Tuesday. Once more, check the teams to target in the opening section of this article. Yeah. So don’t get too excited if he gets back-to-back shutouts here. It was literally the best possible schedule at the moment for a goaltender.

Montreal Canadiens in 19 games (five last week):

Sam Montembeault (crease share season/week: 67.1%/81.7%, fantasy points season/week: 28.4/25.8, 77.2% available)
Cayden Primeau (crease share season/week: 32.9%/18.4%, fantasy points season/week: -21.4/-8.2, 99.7% available)

Almost all of Montembeault’s positive fantasy points have come in the past week with him clearly on a heater. This is likely more of the mercurial showings we expect from a team and goalie on the rise, but not quite ready yet. If he gets the start when the Habs play next on Saturday, be very careful as the Golden Knights (3rd on the “avoid” list) are the opponent.

Ottawa Senators in 17 games (three last week):

Linus Ullmark (crease share season/week: 53.6%/67.5%, fantasy points season/week: 10.6/6.2, 15.9% available)
Anton Forsberg (crease share season/week: 43.0%/32.5%, fantasy points season/week: 15.2/-1.2, 98.3% available)

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Two steps forward and one step back for Ullmark in his quest to be a steady fantasy option. After impressive wins against the Maple Leafs and Bruins, he coughed up -6.2 fantasy points to the … checks notes … Flyers? I think I want Ullmark on my roster, but I don’t know that I would be ready to start him every week just yet. That’s probably a widely-shared feeling at this stage.

Pittsburgh Penguins in 20 games (five last week):

Alex Nedeljkovic (crease share season/week: 50.0%/71.9%, fantasy points season/week: 0.6/1.4, 97.6% available)
Joel Blomqvist (crease share season/week: 34.3%/4.2%, fantasy points season/week: 9.4/-5.0, 98.5% available)
Tristan Jarry (crease share season/week: 15.7%/23.9%, fantasy points season/week: -11.4/-3.4, 78.7% available)

Hey, Jarry’s back! He got lit up by the Blue Jackets. Blomqvist is back in the AHL. Moving on, nothing to see here.

San Jose Sharks in 20 games (five last week):

Mackenzie Blackwood (crease share season/week: 55.4%/65.7%, fantasy points season/week: 21.0/3.8, 94.4% available)
Vitek Vanecek (crease share season/week: 44.6%/34.3%, fantasy points season/week: 2.6/0.6, 99.3% available)
Yaroslav Askarov (no games yet, 94.0% available)

The door is wide open for Askarov to stake his NHL claim that he wanted an opportunity badly enough to force a trade out of Juuse Saros‘ shadow this past offseason. The Sharks started him in the AHL, where he’s posted a sterling 1.92 goals-against average with two shutouts across nine games. With Vanecek injured, Askarov has been called up. The Sharks aren’t exactly a hub for fantasy goaltending from the crease, but they are scoring enough to give a goaltender a fighting chance. If you are hurting in the crease in redraft, scooping him to your bench now is the play. If you are in a keeper league, he’s probably already rostered.

Vancouver Canucks in 17 games (four last week):

Kevin Lankinen (crease share season/week: 75.7%/74.5%, fantasy points season/week: 31.2/0.4, 34.3% available)
Arturs Silovs (crease share season/week: 24.3%/25.5%, fantasy points season/week: -8.6/7.6, 97.3% available)
Thatcher Demko (no games yet, 16.9% available)

The latest reports out of Vancouver have Demko’s return on the horizon. That means you need to check to see if you are in one of the 17% of leagues that has him available. It also means you need to prepare to make alternate arrangements if you’ve been leaning on Lankinen for fantasy points.

Power-play notes

Jackson Blake, RW, Carolina Hurricanes (available in 99.5% of ESPN Fantasy leagues): Replacing the injured Seth Jarvis on the top power-play unit, Blake could stick around given the roaring success. The top unit has four goals in its past three games. Opponents are also giving them a lifetime on the advantage, with 16:25 across those three games resulting in 37 shot attempts to generate those four goals. But the point is that Blake was there for all four of them.

Alex Vlasic, D, Chicago Blackhawks (70.6%): With Seth Jones out week-to-week, Vlasic got 1:15 of ice time as the top-unit quarterback on Saturday against the Canucks. For now, first-round pick Artyom Levshunov has been left in the AHL (where the recently turned-19-year-old has five points in nine games). Levshunov would be the jackpot if called up, but don’t turn your nose up at the payout from Vlasic. He’s already fantasy relevant thanks to his blocked-shot prowess.

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Alex Tuch, RW, Buffalo Sabres (13.9%): Filling in on the top unit for an injured Tage Thompson, the group with Tuch managed 3.88 shot attempts per two minutes and came away with two goals in 5:09 total ice time across the past three games. Not so fast, though, as now Tuch looks questionable for Wednesday’s tilt. The success with Tuch as part of the group could spur some changes when everyone is healthy again.

Jonathan Lekkerimaki, RW, Vancouver Canucks (98.3%): With Boeser sidelined for the medium-term, Lekkerimaki has been handed his role on the top power-play unit and in the Canucks top six. The fantasy results aren’t there yet, but the 20-year-old is just getting his feet wet at the NHL level. This kind of role, with plenty of access to J.T. Miller, Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes, should be a productive one.

Nicolas Roy, C, Vegas Golden Knights (94.8%): If Mark Stone‘s status remains questionable, we could get an extended window for Roy to be in fantasy lineups. Like Lekkerimaki, he’s been elevated to both the top six and top power-play unit due to injury.

Nazem Kadri, C, Calgary Flames (23.1%): The Flames power play is in a funk. So much so that the team experimented with moving Kadri off the top unit against the Predators last Friday. Both units boosted their shot attempts rate in the contest, though neither broke through to score. Twelve of Kadri’s 22 power-play points last season came in March and April. Hopefully he isn’t making us wait that long again. He is flirting with droppable territory at the moment.

Marco Kasper, C, Detroit Red Wings (99.6%): In the past three games, Kasper has averaged only 0:41 of power-play time, the majority of which was not with the top-unit players. In that time, he’s been on the ice for four power-play goals, earning himself three PP points. If Patrick Kane doesn’t pick up his pace on the top unit, it looks like Kasper is pushing for more time there.

Jake Walman, D, San Jose Sharks (71.9%): Both Walman and Timothy Liljegren each took a turn with the top unit in the past two games and each produced a goal on the advantage. With similar total ice time, the shot attempts with Walman as the quarterback (11) were more than double when Liljegren was on the ice (five).

Artturi Lehkonen, LW, Colorado Avalanche (28.4%): At least for now, Lehkonen held onto his top-unit spot through the return of both Valeri Nichushkin and Jonathan Drouin.

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Ryan Hartman, C, Minnesota Wild (75.9%): To start, it looks like Hartman is first up for Mats Zuccarello‘s power-play minutes while the winger is sidelined for about a month. As great as this top unit is for the Wild, Hartman doesn’t become an automatic add for fantasy. But don’t hesitate to jump on him if the ice time with Kirill Kaprizov starts paying off.

Droppables

Yegor Sharangovich, C, Calgary Flames (45.0%): The results aren’t coming and now the ice time is slipping. He even dipped below 16 minutes against Nashville last week. We can come back to him later this season if the Flames offense finds a rhythm, but let him go for now.

Jamie Benn, LW, Dallas Stars (59.2%): He earned his fantasy value in recent seasons from being a key part of a successful power-play unit, despite his third-line minutes at even strength. The advantage just isn’t clicking for him this season; in fact, it’s clicking without him, as the unit featuring Matt Duchene, Tyler Seguin and Mason Marchment is doing the heavy lifting.

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