How was that for a frenzied day of free agent signings? A frenetic flurry of activity to cap off what’s already been an exciting offseason, with a trade-based goalie carousel first helping to redefine the pecking order for fantasy hockey next fall. Now we can comb through a comprehensive list of ex-UFAs (if only for a minute) settling into their new homes ahead of 2024-25, highlighting those who feature most intriguingly within the fantasy scope.
A change of address can go a long way to determining a player’s fantasy outlook — good or bad. Only the cream of the crop are team-proof, in the sense that Jake Guentzel‘s final landing place wouldn’t have an impact on his projections a whole lot for the coming season.
But whether the prognosis for fantasy points goes up or down, the offseason frenzy is also just fun. Drawing up to-the-minute depth charts with each move and wondering how a new coach will deploy a new weapon makes for enjoyable analysis.
With that in mind, let’s spin through all the wheeling, dealing, and signing that occurs as the NHL reshapes itself for the 2024-25 campaign. (Note: Some of these are a couple of weeks old, but this space is the first we’ve had to discuss them for the fantasy realm.)
Bolts reel in Guentzel, Preds nab Stamkos/Marchessault
Jake Guentzel, W, Tampa Bay Lightning: Arguably the top prize available in free agency from a fantasy perspective, Guentzel was a smash hit in his brief run with the Carolina Hurricanes last season following a deadline trade out of Pittsburgh. That result went to show that his elite scoring skills can be a fit anywhere there is talent to play with — and the Lightning offer plenty of that up front in Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point. The super trio may not be together all the time at five-on-five, but Guentzel will get his and get a massive boon from the power play — which is something that fell by the wayside in his recent time in Pittsburgh. -Sean Allen
Steven Stamkos, LW/C; Jonathan Marchessault, RW/C, Nashville Predators: Supposing Andrew Brunette leaves his line of Filip Forsberg/Ryan O’Reilly/Gustav Nyquist alone — because why mess with a good thing? — Stamkos seems poised to slide in on left wing on the other scoring unit, with Marchessault slipping in on the right side. If so, either Tommy Novak or Colton Sissons is in for a fresh new gig in centering the two Stanley Cup champions. There’s also an outside chance Stamkos shifts back to center, opening the door for Luke Evangelista to earn a spot alongside the two veterans.
Bottom line, while Stamkos isn’t likely to reach 81 points again in his new Nashville digs, and Marchessault will be hard-pressed to score 42 goals for a second season, we don’t expect a massive drop-off from either veteran. And at least one young player is about the benefit from playing with these proven winners. That definitely needs serious fantasy-focussed attention in training camp. -Victoria Matiash
Reunion in Columbus
Sean Monahan, C, Columbus Blue Jackets: In one of the day’s more intriguing signings, the Jackets lasso in Johnny Gaudreau’s former center in Calgary. Skating on a scoring line with Gaudreau, Monahan earned 82 points in 78 games six years ago. He took a bit of a tumble thereafter, at least until this past season when the veteran center experienced a nice resurgence in popping out 59 points, split between Montreal and Winnipeg. If he lands on Gaudreau’s line and power play, a 65-point campaign is hardly out of the question. Those two were rather magical together for well more than a minute. Remember, the sixth-overall draft pick (2013) is still only 29 years old. -V.M.
Reinhart stays put
Sam Reinhart, C/W, Florida Panthers: Not much to say here, as the Panthers and Reinhart said it all with their Stanley Cup victory. Would you project him for another 57-goal campaign? Probably not, but the Panthers will return him to the top line with Aleksander Barkov for another season in their primes, so another run toward 50 isn’t out of the question. He remains a top-20 skater. -S.A.
Montour joins Kraken
Brandon Montour, D, Seattle Kraken: Fresh off a Stanley Cup run, Montour goes to the Kraken as a massive boon to their defensive group. Vince Dunn has had his moments, but Montour comes in as a clear frontrunner to anchor the power play for Seattle. He didn’t reach the heights of his career 2022-23 season this past year, but he also contended with recovery from offseason surgery for much of it. The skill is still there and this is a spot Montour can thrive. The overall output of the offense won’t be as awesome as it was in Florida, so the career year might be in the rear-view, but there is still value here. -V.M.
Back in Florida, Aaron Ekblad presents as the top candidate to (again) inherit the gig on the Panthers’ No. 1 power play. Especially since Oliver Ekman-Larsson is also bound for elsewhere (see below). If that’s how the fantasy cookie crumbles, we can expect Ekblad to register more than the four power-play points he garnered in 2023-24. Like 19 or 20, as he put up the two previous seasons. -S.A.
Stephenson seeks a new role in Seattle
Chandler Stephenson, C/LW, Seattle Kraken: A role on a top-six line and power play in Seattle should help Stephenson mimic his output from his most recent years in Vegas. So, we’re anticipating a total ranging between 60 and 65 points in a full, healthy season. Where he exactly fits in — either on the wing or in replacement of Jared McCann at center — presents as a pertinent question closer to the launch of the regular season. -V.M.
Duchene sticks in Dallas
Matt Duchene, C, Dallas Stars: Signing another incentive-laden one-year deal, the 33-year-old can likely be counted on to near replicate this past season’s 65-points total, at minimum, including more than 20 goals. Such a figure still proves valuable in deeper fantasy leagues and should be selected in the later rounds of those drafts. -V.M.
Bruins have a new top center
Elias Lindholm, C/W, Boston Bruins: Move over Charlie Coyle and Pavel Zacha, there’s a new No. 1 in town. The Bruins aren’t paying Lindholm nearly $8-million/year to toil away on their third unit. Meaning the veteran is in position to once more put up numbers similar to those enjoyed while centering the likes of Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk (before they bolted). Skating on a top line with David Pastrnak or Brad Marchand – and both on the power play – will help Lindholm rebound off his two most recent mediocre campaigns. Particularly last year’s ho-hum split between the Canucks and Flames. In such a promising spot, the (still only) 29-year-old boasts 80-point potential. -V.M.
DeBrusk darts from Beantown
Jake DeBrusk, LW, Vancouver Canucks: Pegged to start on a scoring line alongside Elias Pettersson, the former Bruin is receiving one heckuva fresh start. Which he could certainly use, after last season’s mediocre 40-point showing. If the 27-year-old responds as well to playing under Rick Tocchet as many expect, and he develops good chemistry with Pettersson — or J.T. Miller — DeBrusk might hit the 70-point plateau for the first time in his career. He nailed 50 in 64 games with the B’s only two years ago. -V.M.
Devils’ D is that much better
Brett Pesce/Brenden Dillon, D, New Jersey Devils: By signing both Pesce and Dillon, GM Tom Fitzgerald bolstered a defensive corps that certainly required some bolstering. Apologies for burying the lede here, but these two acquisitions might vault recently traded-for goalie Jacob Markstrom into the top-tier of fantasy netminders heading into 2024-25. That Devils’ blue line now rivals other high-quality corps around the NHL. And Markstrom stands to benefit, along with the team as a whole. -V.M.
Other signings
Anthony Duclair, LW, New York Islanders: The Islanders just received some much-needed scoring pop in the form of Duclair. The well-travelled winger has the tools to produce when given proper opportunity, as he just did in potting eight goals and seven assists in 17 games to close out this past regular season as a member of the Lightning. A spot on an Islanders’ top line, playing for his former Quebec Remparts coach Patrick Roy, should provide Duclair the chance to perform as a valuable under-the-radar fantasy player in deeper leagues across the board. He shouldn’t be overlooked in the latter stages of drafts where sleeper picks could prove valuable. -V.M.
Tyler Toffoli, W, San Jose Sharks: Skating on a top line with Mikael Granlund, at least to start, the veteran winger has the wherewithal to collect 70 points, including 30-plus goals. With highly-touted prospect Will Smith ready for his professional close-up, No. 1 pick Macklin Celebrini (presumably) set to go, and William Eklund poised to blossom in his second full season, this Sharks team is going to be more competitive this season. (Although that bar should be easy enough to clear.) -V.M.
Editor’s Picks
1 Related
Patrick Kane, W, Detroit Red Wings: Sticking with the Wings and coming into a season in full health, Kane has a proper offseason to get into a rhythm with Alex DeBrincat again, perhaps boosting the prognosis for both of them. Either way, this is a good spot for Kane to potentially extend his fantasy career in solid fashion. The performance bonuses don’t hurt the hopes. -S.A.
Ilya Samsonov, G, Vegas Golden Knights: On a one-year “show me” deal, the former Leafs netminder now gets the opportunity to demonstrate that last season’s positive stretches served as rule and not exception. Because when he struggled, he struggled badly. Adin Hill may be the club’s go-to on Day 1, but that’s hardly etched in cement. If Hill struggles/falls hurt, Samsonov will earn every chance to shine behind one of the league’s better defenses. He’s worth a late-round flier in deeper fantasy leagues. -V.M.
Viktor Arvidsson, RW, Edmonton Oilers: If the former King/Predator lands on the right side of Leon Draisaitl as anticipated, he’s going to pace out a point/game for the first time in his career. Just watch. -V.M.
Tyler Bertuzzi and Teuvo Teravainen, W, Chicago Blackhawks: Leaving Toronto to ply his trade in Chicago, Bertuzzi’s fantasy upside hinges entirely on his opportunity to play alongside Connor Bedard. That is also the case for Teravainen, returning to his original franchise. Philipp Kurashev has one of the two spots next to Bedard on near-lockdown, and there are other suitors for the job, but Bertuzzi and Teravainen bring experience playing on a top line with star players throughout their career. This will be a depth chart worth monitoring. -S.A.
Cam Talbot, G, Detroit Red Wings: The veteran goalie earned a .913 SV% and 2.48 GAA behind a staunch team defense in Los Angeles last year. The Red Wings don’t perform to that same stingy degree. Just ask Alex Lyon and Ville Husso, who remain signed in Detroit. Oh, and the Wings signed Oilers’ castoff Jack Campbell too. -V.M.
Anthony Stolarz, G, Toronto Maple Leafs: By no means does the Leafs’ net unquestionably belong to Joseph Woll. Battling injury issues all too regularly, the 25-year-old has yet to play 40 games in the NHL, including the playoffs. This isn’t to suggest Stolarz will get the initial nod in the season opener, only that what initially presents as a 1A/1B tandem unit could eventually – or not so eventually – unfurl in one goalie’s favor, based on performance/health. Stolarz rocked out a 2.03 GAA and .925 SV% through 27 games in Florida last year. He’s enjoyed other successful stretches with the Ducks and Flyers in the past. While not a draft target in shallower leagues, the veteran backup – and his role in Toronto – should be monitored closely. That the Leafs improved their defense (see below) on July 1st is another plus for both Stolarz and Woll. -V.M.
Oliver Ekman-Larsson, D, Toronto Maple Leafs: The Maple Leafs now have a legit offensive-defenseman to settle on their secondary power play behind primary-unit anchor Morgan Rielly. Enjoying a Renaissance campaign after being bought out in Vancouver, Ekman-Larsson collected 31 points with the Panthers, including 11 with the extra skater. Oh, and he won a Cup. -V.M.
Chris Tanev, D, Toronto Maple Leafs: There might be some modest fantasy value coming from deeper on Toronto’s blue line with Tanev and Jake McCabe looking to play physical hockey for new coach Craig Berube. But Tanev’s value will hinge on the counting stats of blocked shots and hits. -S.A.
Trades:
Les Habitants land Laine
The trade we knew would happen eventually waited until the August doldrums, as Patrik Laine is now a member of the Montreal Canadiens. He joins a developing forward group in time to still potentially reach his prime hockey years, having just turned 26 in April.
But what is that prime and is Laine in a place to achieve it? He’s coming off a campaign that saw him miss time with injuries before entering the NHL’s player assistance program.
The Habs will probably not break up the breakout trio of Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki and Juraj Slafkovsky on the top line, but Laine still has Kirby Dach and Alex Newhook, two 23-year-olds also looking to make their mark. Additionally, Laine will most certainly be on the top power-play unit, where his best weapon — his quick-release shot — can be on display.
He’s the perfect lottery ticket for fantasy teams willing to take on minimal risk for massive reward. At minimum, he can match the near-point-per-game paces he managed in 2021-22 and 2022-23 with the Blue Jackets. At maximum, he can callback his Winnipeg Jets debut seasons in which he scored 74 goals across two campaigns.
Jacob Markstrom to the Devils
Jacob Markstrom, G, New Jersey Devils: We were all waiting for this deal at the most recent deadline, when it almost happened. This is a potential match made in heaven for both the Devils, who lacked a dependable starter last season, and Markstrom, who suffered from a lack of offense for much of last season. There is some risk here, as Markstrom will turn 35 midseason, but there is evidence that the old narrative of goaltenders turning into pumpkins at this age has lost some of its luster in recent seasons. With coach Sheldon Keefe at the helm and a quality offense led by Jack Hughes, this could be a match made in fantasy heaven. -S.A.
Dustin Wolf, G, Calgary Flames: Back in Calgary, the Markstrom trade is a clear sign that the Flames will at least give Wolf a chance to earn himself the starter’s mantle. He’s dominated in the AHL in recent seasons, while showing he can carry a heavy workload. The Flames will be lower on the power rankings coming into this campaign, but still project to win enough for a quality goaltender to earn value. It’s just a matter of Wolf staking his claim and earning the lion’s share of the crease. -S.A.
Kuemper for Dubois
Darcy Kuemper, G, Los Angeles Kings: After getting usurped for his starting job with the Capitals by an impressive run to the playoffs by Charlie Lindgren, Kuemper has a new lease on life with the team he played for briefly in 2017-18 – before he became a bona fide starter. There is a real chance Kuemper can make something of this new home, as it’s a better defensive home than he had with the Capitals. It’s not unreasonable to say Kuemper might still be at a higher base skill than Cam Talbot, and Talbot had some fantastic runs last season with the Kings. -S.A.
Pierre-Luc Dubois, C, Washington Capitals: If Dubois was even just a year older, we would probably all be on the same page with his prognosis. But the fact he just turned 26 this summer means there will still be a split of believers and non-believers. For the non-believers, the argument is simple: Dubois hasn’t been explosively effective to match what has long been touted as his potential, hitting a brand new low as a third-line center for the Kings this past season. For the believers, the argument is a little more nuanced: He hasn’t had a chance as the No. 1 center on a team with a plus-offence and power play since he was a 20-year-old with the Blue Jackets.
With the Capitals, there is no one to block Dubois from earning the top, No. 1, unquestioned center role we need to see for final evaluation. Getting those big, key minutes with Alex Ovechkin as a potential go-to winger, this is Dubois’ last chance to put up. -S.A.
Ullmark to the Sens
Linus Ullmark, G, Ottawa Senators: One year removed from a Vezina Trophy and following a season in which he performed more than adequately, but had to split time, Ullmark gets a crease all to himself here with the Senators. With conceivably reliable netminding now on the roster, can the Sens turn into a 45- or 50-win team? That is the question. The roster looks great on paper and Ullmark had tremendous success with the Bruins, but what is the blend of causation for that success? Nature versus nurture? If it was even 50-50 backed on the play of Ullmark, there should be some quality fantasy scoring to be found here. -S.A.
Jeremy Swayman, G, Boston Bruins: The Ullmark trade clears a path to increased playing time for the goaltender the Bruins ended up leaning on in the playoffs. He’s shared the crease for two seasons now and has the potential to put up workhorse numbers if the Bruins go that way – but make sure you hedge your bets. Joonas Korpisalo, who came back in the Ullmark deal, isn’t making peanuts and does have the talent to settle into the same timeshare arrangement the Bruins have leaned on with Swayman and Ullmark. -S.A.
Other trades
Reilly Smith, RW, New York Rangers: After an utterly miserable experience in Pittsburgh, the former Stanley Cup Champ (Vegas) is in for a rebound performance as a member of the Rangers. Especially if he lands on a scoring unit with Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider. He’s a 0.75 points/game guy when healthy (and happy). -V.M.
Mikhail Sergachev, D, Utah Hockey Club: The Utah club got itself a real score with Sergachev, who has proven himself capable of anchoring a top power-play unit in his time with the Lightning. He’s taken the job from Victor Hedman in cycles during recent seasons and ran with it when provided with the minutes. He knocks Sean Durzi out of the role on the advantage and makes himself a more attractive fantasy option thanks to the guaranteed looks. -S.A.
Alexander Holtz, W, Vegas Golden Knights: There is a real chance Holtz could break into a top-six role with the Golden Knights, a job that wasn’t going to come his way with the Devils in the short term. The Knights are stacked with Jack Eichel and Tomas Hertl down the middle, leaving four wing spots open for the taking in the coming campaign. Holtz’s killer shot could also help him earn a role on the power play, if things break right for him. -S.A.
Logan Thompson, G, Washington Capitals: While Lindgren will start with the 1A starter label thanks to his run last season, Thompson is waiting in the wings if the magic isn’t there this season. While the combination of how often the Caps win and Thompson’s playing time out of the gate probably isn’t enough to have him on fantasy teams right away, he’s worth monitoring as the season begins. -S.A.
Jake Walman, D, San Jose Sharks: This move could have some wide-reaching fantasy impact — not because Walman has upside as a No. 3 or 4 fantasy defender (though he does), but because he was the perfect defense partner for Moritz Seider. Since they were paired up partway through 2022-23, Seider played to his potential following a weak start to his sophomore campaign. His Corsi percentage drops by about five percent going from Walman to Ben Chiarot, which might be the plan. Maybe Simon Edvinsson is ready for the top pairing? -S.A.
Ilya Mikheyev, W, Chicago Blackhawks: Philipp Kurashev is a lock for playing with Connor Bedard, but the second spot on the top line will be up for grabs. Taylor Hall could be healthy enough to compete for it, Tyler Bertuzzi and Teuvo Teravainen have top-line experience on the resume, and maybe Lukas Reichel is ready to push for it, but Mikheyev’s hat is certainly in the ring thanks to his experience playing with Elias Pettersson – and doing a pretty good job of it. -S.A.
