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Greg Wyshynski, ESPNSep 23, 2024, 08:00 AM ET
- Greg Wyshynski is ESPN’s senior NHL writer.
Information is power in fantasy hockey drafts. I’ve competed against owners who have a NASA supercomputer breaking down player analytics and owners who are privy to so much fresh injury data that it seems like a HIPAA violation.
On the flip side, I’ve drafted against owners whose clocks run out as they scan the player list in an effort to check Jaromir Jagr’s eligibility. These owners, naturally, are the ones who end up winning the leagues (sigh).
The 10 players discussed here are the ones on whom I plant my rhetorical flag for the 2024-25 season. My reasoning is sound and it hopefully inspires you to either follow my lead or open your mind to other possibilities in fantasy puck this season. Some you’ll have high on your draft boards already, while I make the case for some under-the-radar choices to make your roster.
May all your picks turn out to be great ones. Here’s the Plant My Flag list for 2024-25.
David Pastrnak, F, Boston Bruins
When a player’s production drops by 14 goals and he still ends up with 47 on the season, that’s a heck of a goal scorer right there. Pastrnak has generated more shots on goal (1,101) over the past three seasons than any other NHL player. After leading the league with 407 shots in 2022-23, he dipped to 382 last season. Though his goals dropped, his overall points only went from 113 to 110 thanks to a bump in assists.
The reason to plant a flag on Pasta is simple: incredible player, now playing with a center who has gotten the most out of other incredible players. Elias Lindholm gives Pastrnak his best center since the end of the Bergeron/Krejci era and one who helped Matthew Tkachuk and the late Johnny Gaudreau to some of their best offensive seasons during their Calgary days. Pastrnak clears 55 goals this season.
Jack Hughes, F, New Jersey Devils
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I had Hughes on this list last season, with two important caveats: “His ability to stay in the lineup was the key to his dominant offensive year.” “One hopes the departure of associate coach Andrew Brunette doesn’t undercut Hughes’ special teams production.”
His special teams production remained steady: 22 assists and nine goals for the second straight season. But his 5-on-5 production was as “brutal” as the Devils’ season, as Hughes himself labeled the 2023-24 campaign. His points per 60 minutes dropped from 2.8 in 2022-23 to 2.0 last season. That was especially felt in his 5-on-5 goal scoring, which dropped to under 1.0 per 60 minutes for the first time in three seasons. That’s despite having his highest average shots and shot attempts at evens in his career. Hughes’ offensive numbers are bound to trend back in the right direction as the Devils improve thanks to changes to their backend and their bench.
But that brings us back to the first important caveat: his health. Hughes was limited to 62 games last season because of injury. In his three 82-game seasons, he has played over 65 games once. As we’ve seen, a healthy Hughes can become the first Devil to break 100 points, but we’ve just not seen a healthy Hughes enough. Still planting a flag here … gently.
Tyler Bertuzzi, F, Chicago Blackhawks
It took a while for Bertuzzi to get cooking in Toronto, where he played on a one-year deal last season, but he had 21 points in his last 26 games and then four points in a seven-game playoff loss to the Bruins. The surprising part was only 10 of those 25 total points were assists, as Bertuzzi is a superlative playmaker. That combination of goal scoring and goal creating — as well as some sandpaper in his game — enticed the Blackhawks to give him a four-year free agent deal.
He’s slotted next to Connor Bedard in the preseason, and it’s not hard to envision Bertuzzi floating Bedard some one-timers in the offensive zone. I think he breaks 50 points easily, assuming he passes the chemistry test with Bedard.
Juraj Slafkovsky, F, Montreal Canadiens
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Every fantasy draft, there’s a few players who are obscured by the perception filter. There are going to be some owners who remember Slafkovsky as an overwhelmed 18-year-old who couldn’t muster much offense as a rookie. Maybe they weren’t paying attention when the first overall pick in 2022 turned around a sophomore season that started terribly (two points in 15 games) and ended with the Slovakian winger in a total groove (19 points in 19 games).
So far in the preseason, the Habs have kept Slafkovsky with Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki, a line that clicked at a 3.3 goals per 60 minutes pace last season. If that trio remains intact for the majority of the season, Slafkovsky could go 65-plus points in Year 3.
Logan Cooley, F, Utah Hockey Club
The Utah (probably Yeti) are a real X-factor this season in the West. Please recall the Arizona Coyotes were flirting with a wild-card playoff spot before the relocation clamors became too much of a distraction. Now that they’ve moved to Salt Lake City, the infusion of enthusiasm (and financial stability) could catapult this team on the ice and in the standings.
That’s going to really benefit an electrifying player such as Cooley, who posted solid if not spectacular numbers for the Coyotes last season: 20 goals, 24 assists in 82 games. Cooley is primed for a significant leap in Year 2 and could flirt with 70 points if Utah gets a debut season lift in the Beehive State.
Wyatt Johnston, F, Dallas Stars
The retirement of Joe Pavelski left a hole on one of the best lines in the NHL. His trio with Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz had an expected goals percentage of 58.9% last season, continuing multiple years of dominant play. Johnston got a taste of the top line last season too, playing just over 111 minutes with Robertson and Hintz. Sample size notwithstanding, the results were astounding: 4.93 goals per 60 minutes, 0.51 goals against and a preposterous 82.1% expected goals percentage. Wow.
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When Robertson is back from his foot surgery, it’s expected Johnston will get his chance to play on that top line again. The great thing about drafting Johnston is that he has proven he can produce anywhere in the Dallas lineup, with 32 goals and 33 assists last season, his second in the NHL. His shot attempts and shot totals should also be on the rise this season, as should his power-play time. Only 10 of his 65 points last season were on the man advantage, where he ranked sixth in ice time among Dallas forwards.
Roman Josi, D, Nashville Predators
Josi had 85 points in 82 games last season, which was the second time in three seasons he eclipsed a point-per-game pace. Part of this late career offensive spike for the former Norris winner has been an uptick in average goals over the past three seasons. Last season also saw Josi generate more shot attempts per 60 minutes (68.7) than he had in any other season of his 13-year NHL career. That having coincided with the arrival of Andrew Brunette as his head coach was probably not a coincidence.
Now he has some help. Josi is likely to be paired with Brady Skjei, formerly of the Hurricanes. He’ll have Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault in the forward group and on the power play, for a team that was 10th in the NHL goals per game (3.24) last season.
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Zach Werenski, D, Columbus Blue Jackets
The 27-year-old defenseman was one of the NHL’s forgotten players before last season, thanks to a couple of injury-riddled seasons and the Blue Jackets’ descent into a rebuild. But he popped off for 57 points in 70 games last season, with only 12 of them coming on the power play. He plays a ton and in all situations. He should shoot more this season.
With his confidence back, it’s possible we see him top last season’s career best in points with a season that has him crack 20 goals again. Certainly a blueliner to have cued up as the rounds progress.
Pyotr Kochetkov, G, Carolina Hurricanes
Here are two fun stats about the Hurricanes since Rod Brind’Amour became head coach in 2018-19:
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2.59, which is the team goals-against average during that span, second only to the Boston Bruins.
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.664, which is their points percentage in the standings, also second to the Bruins.
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The Hurricanes win a lot of games and don’t give up a lot of goals, which was good news for Kochetkov, the 25-year-old goalie who broke through in 42 games last season. He had a 23-13-4 record and a sterling .911 save percentage and 2.33 goals-against average in finishing fourth for the Calder. Kochetkov should get more action this season and might earn even more given Freddie Andersen’s inability to stay in the lineup over the past two seasons (he turns 35 before the season, by the way).
There might be some concern about lineup changes for the Hurricanes, specifically on the back end. But as long as Brind’Amour is the coach, they’re going to be a stout defensive team in front of their goalies.
Stuart Skinner, G, Edmonton Oilers
Skinner was fourth in games played last season (59) and it’s hard to imagine the Oilers are going to decrease the workload for their top goaltender. Sure, other goaltenders are going to get you more shots against (Skinner was ninth) and saves (also ninth), but Skinner was tied for third in the NHL last season in wins, and this Oilers team should once again be among the best in the West during the regular season.
He has shown to be pretty durable, too. We’d expect nothing less from a guy who uses Toad during Oilers “Mario Kart” tournaments.
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